Seeking Alpha

Be Here Now

Be Here Now
Send Message
View Be Here Now's Comments BY TICKER:
  • Apple Chart Flashes Bubble Crash Warning [View article]
    It was Business Week that was the best contrarian indicator. They proclaimed the death of stocks just before the great bull market started in 1982.
    Dec 12 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Chart Flashes Bubble Crash Warning [View article]
    Don't forget the law of large numbers. The greater AAPL's success, the harder it becomes to continue that success, and at some point becomes impossible. I agree with Richard, that parabolic price rise is unsustainable. Whether it turns into a multi-year yawner is another issue entirely. My feeling is that the relatively modest P/E ratio argues against a sustained under-performance.

    Full disclosure: I have no position in AAPL or any of its products.
    Dec 11 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Chart Flashes Bubble Crash Warning [View article]
    thgilnoom,

    Both MSFT and CSCO had short term earnings pauses during/after the tech crash, then resumed earnings growth. In both cases, prices have not followed earnings since the crash. DItto KO.

    What makes the stock price go up is not JUST earnings, it is earnings plus valuation. If you over-pay, you do not get the benefit of earnings growth.
    Dec 11 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Chart Flashes Bubble Crash Warning [View article]
    Yes I did mean that. I need an editor.
    Dec 11 12:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Chart Flashes Bubble Crash Warning [View article]
    Richard,

    Good examples all. You may have caught the bug, have fun with it like I do.
    Dec 11 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Chart Flashes Bubble Crash Warning [View article]
    Your examples tend to confirm my statement about false positives vs false negatives (not proof as you pointed out below). If AAPL does not in the future follow the typical post-hyperbolic rise pattern, and you sell in anticipation that it will, you will at least not get killed (false positive). However, if it does follow that pattern and you do not sell (false negative) you will get killed, figuratively speaking.

    False positive vs false negative is just an interesting idea to contemplate. Since I encountered the idea I've tried to apply it to life's big issues with interesting results.
    Dec 11 11:40 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Chart Flashes Bubble Crash Warning [View article]
    "pattern recognition is part of survival (including recognizing a bear coming toward you when you are hiking, and a bear coming at you when you are investing)"

    This statement reminded me of the difference between false positives and false negatives in the human pattern detection mechanism. Failing to recognize a bear coming toward you with intent to turn you into a meal is a false positive. Anyone with this type of failure will not have descendants, so natural selection filters out those with significant false negatives. False positives, on the other hand, do not typically have fatal consequences, so natural selection does not filter out those with significant false positives. This is the reason we humans see patterns where none exist.
    Dec 11 11:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on AAPL by Be Here Now
COMMENTS STATS
3,231 Comments
4,049 Likes