Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View jimmy11's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Inflation Lags Monetary Expansion: Prepare To Be Swindled [View article]
    Kudos to Brian for a very well researched and written article. I lived through the inflationary era in the 1970s and early 1980s as a young man just starting out and see the similarities to the 1960s when I was in college.

    Currently a very beaten down and I think inflation hedged sector of the market is basic commodities. If you look at China and east Asia; India, Indonesia and the BRICs generally have large and growing populations moving into the middle class with all the needs and wants that encompasses. The massive decline in the Chinese economy that very short term traders and analysts see is simply a relatively minor and quite gradual change from from an investment driven economy to a consumer economy, these economies will continue to grow at a much faster rate from a much lower base than the developed economies for many years yet.

    I am long on companies such as Vale, Statoil, Royal Dutch Shell, Potash Corp, Cameco & BHP all substantial dividend payers and some others; that will be supplying basic commodities to those economies for the next twenty years. As for gold & silver I have a very minor amount of coins. I am generally playing precious metals with junior producers or near producers; who are again incredibly beaten down. I do not recommend this for the average investor who probably lacks the knowledge or advice to apply the necessary selectivity to junior companies and managements. However there are several mid tier or larger companies such as Agnico Eagle, Gold Corp and even Barrick and Newmont which are also selling at pretty depressed prices in historical terms.
    Jul 7 10:00 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strikes At Major Suppliers Are Making North American Palladium And Stillwater Mining Shine [View article]
    I am very familiar with North American Palladium. I have been on the minesite more than once. I am in agreement with your very bullish attitude on palladium prices. But I think a deeper look at the Brookfield debt situation is merited before any decision to buy North American Palladium. The rates and terms are punishing and when looking at it some months ago there were serious questions as to company survival due to that debt. The increase in palladium prices due to South African and Russian issues has alleviated the debt burden. But I am not sure the company is out of the woods yet.
    Jun 18 09:01 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West's New All-Star Board Member Aggressively Buying Shares [View article]
    Hi Devon:
    Nice article and absolutely agree with your thesis if the new management can turn this company around and do something about the cost and capital efficiency; there is great value in the land position. But I have been burnt twice starting at the mid twenties and then again at about 17-18. $10 is a good entry for sure IF they turn it around. The dividend is over 10% at these prices.
    Jun 2 05:39 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Statoil: 6.12 P/E And 3.82% Dividend Yield [View article]
    Very nice well researched article; I just bought some STO as a diversification from the US and Canadian companies that are the majority of my energy holdings. My data sources say STO pays slightly over 5% Any way I thought it was a good exposure to Europe without the Euro risk and a decent dividend
    May 30 04:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources And The Future Of U.S. Iron Ore [View article]
    This is the reply I promised maverta; briefly about myself. I am a specialized mining consultant. In the area of resources and properties and overall project viability analysis. I am not a financial or investment analyst or investment adviser and do not give stock investment advice; do your own due diligence. I am long Cliffs with a relatively small position. Which was recently acquired at present depressed prices as a speculation. What I will do in this reply is call attention to some areas that you should be aware of while doing your own due diligence.

    First you should pay careful attention to a number of the other very astute comments to this article. Including the points made by Johan 1952, macpherson, gausmus and the Author himself in his clarifying note .

    Second the various junior company joint ventures and exploration alliances with the possible exception of the First Point Decar venture in British Columbia are very early stage exploration bets for very small amounts of money, in context. The degree of risk versus reward is roughly equivalent to drawing three cards to an inside straight flush in a poker game. The Zenyatta (a company I am quite familiar with) speculation was not made on the strength of the graphite it was made for participation in the very early stage Albany (copper nickle PGE) exploration project now dropped or shelved and well before the graphite project surfaced. The Graphite project is also early stage and at best does not have sufficient financial and size potential to be of any significance to the bottom line of a company of Cliffs size. So as a possible eventual accretive acquisition for Cliffs it would be insignificant. There is a very early stage copper exploration alliance with Estrella Gold in Peru with greater upside potential but again very high risk and a very minor investment. The Decar nickle iron Joint Venture with First Point Minerals has considerably more upside but is still very early stage and has a number of risk factors that have not yet been addressed including capital requirements but there are several other issues of significance that will need to be resolved prior to any development decisions. The marketability of the product and project economics are still open questions.

    First Point Minerals. Estrella Gold and Zenyatta Ventures all have comprehensive Web sites I suggest anyone who is interested in the Cliffs joint Ventures and exploration alliances start their due diligence with those sites. Note all are promotional and quite positive in tone so take the opinions and projections with a grain of salt. The factual data are pretty reliable.

    The issues of the Cliffs Metallurgical coal interests in WV and Alabama would require a long dissertation. Sufficient to say that Ben Statler found a naive buyer at a time he wished to sell and at the most positive evaluation of that deal Cliffs overpaid at the top of a market cycle.

    The Ring of Fire Chromite project has, as the author states great potential. It has major significance to a company of Cliffs size. The issues that I don't think Cliffs has resolved lie in the areas of: capital availability; for a company of Cliffs size the capital requirements will be very significant. Infrastructure which is non existent, the project lies hundreds of miles from any all weather road, power or rail connection the infrastructure cost alone will be in the range of hundreds of millions which will have to be spent before the project returns any cash flow at all. The third major issue area is Political including First Nations (Indian) issues but also involving other Provincial issues.

    As the Author says adequate discussion of the Ring of Fire and related items would require a long separate article. I will say that in the context of Cliffs current financial situation and overall size that in my opinion; independent development of this project by Cliffs is bet the company. If Cliffs does not execute well on all fronts: capital, Infrastructure, political and actual mine development; they will almost certainly be acquired by one of the international super majors due to the long term scale and value of the chromite.

    To Commodity Market Intel; would you have any interest in writing a joint article which could be pretty good, given our different perspectives, on the Ring of Fire and the various related issues?
    Mar 23 10:11 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Statoil: Strong Buy After Making Game Changing Announcements [View article]
    I have been long this stock for sometime. The shift of the dividend policy if approved is very positive for the stock. Keep in mind that the Norwegian Government owns a majority of STO and the discussion of possible dilution of that ownership still anticipates keeping slightly more than 50%.government ownership. Great stock, nice dividends, good play on currency and I was hoping to buy some more on dips.
    Feb 7 02:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mongolia Investment Climate At The Moment: Uh-Oh [View article]
    Nice article Jon. I am pretty active in the technical and investing side of junior mining and have heard Robert Freidland speak more than one in the last thirty years. Quite familiar with Oyu Tolgu from the technical and mining side and found your perspective most interesting. Pretty new to Seeking Alpha and its community.

    I would reiterate your words of caution with respect to investment in any of the mining deals currently being advertised by junior companies active in Mongola due to the political/national risk issue
    Nov 13 10:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Iron Ore Plunges, Cliff Natural Resources Should Bottom [View article]
    Hi Chris:

    Nice analysis, but correct one point the Cliffs forecast is for low volatile coal not low volume and high volatile coal not high volume. Vol is coalspeak for the amount volatile matter content in the coal not volume. Coal is made up of ash, volatile matter and carbon with a minor amount of sulfur. The Cliffs guidance is for type of coal not amount of coal.
    Sep 6 10:53 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capitalizing On The Energy Scarcity Myth [View article]
    Good article but it has a couple of errors. A number of the Rare Earth Companies including Molycorp and Rare Earth Elements will not be significant thorium producers their ore mineral is primarily Bastnaesite which contains very minor amounts of thorium. The author seems to have taken some of the promotional material on some junior mining company's websites at face value. Do your own research and due diligence on junior mining companies especially in the rare earth field which is a current flavor of the month. Great Western (GWG) will be a substantial thorium producer. In fact its Steenkampskraal mine in South Africa was previously mined for thorium in the 1950s and 60s.The proposed nuclear powered air plane was a bomber not a fighter
    May 28 09:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Alternative To Cliffs Natural Resources Common Stock [View article]
    Thanks for your thoughtful and responsive reply. Forgot to say I liked your article and thought it was well written and well researched. Fortunately, at this time I don't own CLF. I have been researching it for reasons involving other companies and the Ring of Fire (chromite) development under various scenarios. There are certain developmental issues related to the Ontario Chromite that no analyst report I have seen yet has raised. At some point CLF will be a buy but I am not sure it is there yet. I found Thomas Azzara's comment very informative and helpful. Thank you Thomas.
    Mar 14 11:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Rio Tinto: The Cheapest Option To Play A Rebound In Metals And Mining [View article]
    I concur with p Salerno's excellent comments and would also add that this article takes no account of the substantial political risk to Oyu Tolgoi at the present time. See the excellent articles on Seeking Alpha by Jon Springer
    Nov 25 10:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mongolia Investment Climate At The Moment: Uh-Oh [View article]
    oops should have read more than "once" not more than "one" never trust spell check
    Nov 13 10:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Romarco Minerals Has Run Too Far, But Keep It On Your Radar [View article]
    Nice analysis have you considered the 15% gross Au & Ag tax depletion rate which lowers the effective rate of taxation quite substantially as it is a deduction from gross income? See US Code 26 sec 613; google percentage depletion gold for the full language
    Jun 6 08:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vale: Neglected, Undervalued Commodity Firm With 50% Upside Potential [View article]
    Long Vale; A few other points their Canadian position in Nickel copper and PGE (deriving from the Inco acquisition) and strong positions in a number of other commodities in Brazil and elsewhere. Also their thrust into the US market. This may be more of a negative for CLF than a major positive for Vale. But Vale is well positioned to supply the Nucor complex in Louisiana. I agree that Vale is by far the best buy of the major integrated international commodity companies. certainly like their dividend history and coverage also.
    May 1 08:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rare Earths, It's All About The Heavies [View article]
    OOps thanks for the correction Gareth
    Mar 16 06:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment