Chris White's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/90468/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/131386-how-we-measure-financial-productivity-growth?source=feed#comment-466670 466670 Fri, 17 Apr 2009 11:52:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/104904-it-might-be-impossible-to-stop-the-decline-of-housing-prices?source=feed#comment-301193 301193 Please don't take this wrong. There is a secret. Let me tell you what it is. A job creation program which starts to rebuild the wages and earnings of America's workers. Mortgages used to be qualified on the basis of peoples' incomes, and their incomes were verified from their employment. Housing prices are not going to recover until people start to feel some confidence in their ability to pay their way, and that means jobs. This is another secret. There are no financial gimmicks, mechanisms or sch like which can replace that.

Oh, I almost forgot, since peoples' incomes get spent, job creation also helps business.]]> Sun, 09 Nov 2008 11:50:44 -0500 Please don't take this wrong. There is a secret. Let me tell you what it is. A job creation program which starts to rebuild the wages and earnings of America's workers. Mortgages used to be qualified on the basis of peoples' incomes, and their incomes were verified from their employment. Housing prices are not going to recover until people start to feel some confidence in their ability to pay their way, and that means jobs. This is another secret. There are no financial gimmicks, mechanisms or sch like which can replace that.

Oh, I almost forgot, since peoples' incomes get spent, job creation also helps business.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104947-the-reagan-counterrevolution?source=feed#comment-301178 301178 Sun, 09 Nov 2008 11:40:20 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94186-rnc-dnc-crisis-what-crisis?source=feed#comment-246930 246930 In 1932 FDR did not associate with Hoover's policies, despite immense pressure to do so, but only talked in general about his, and ran his "forgotten man" campaign. Not so bad seeming now as then, but the next shoes to drop will for sure be economic as well as financial. The present silence for sure will not last past next March!]]> Sat, 06 Sep 2008 12:00:46 -0400 In 1932 FDR did not associate with Hoover's policies, despite immense pressure to do so, but only talked in general about his, and ran his "forgotten man" campaign. Not so bad seeming now as then, but the next shoes to drop will for sure be economic as well as financial. The present silence for sure will not last past next March!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91349-ge-why-buying-on-weakness-is-an-excellent-idea?source=feed#comment-233648 233648 Mon, 18 Aug 2008 23:09:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90720-as-mortgage-securities-disappear-what-will-replace-them-housing-tracker?source=feed#comment-229214 229214 Wed, 13 Aug 2008 07:52:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/90107-a-closer-look-at-the-dollar-rally?source=feed#comment-226940 226940 Sat, 09 Aug 2008 22:34:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/87931-home-prices-in-20-major-cities-you-re-ok-if?source=feed#comment-218096 218096 Wed, 30 Jul 2008 07:27:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85550-troubling-aspects-to-the-gse-bailout-bill?source=feed#comment-208378 208378
It about time someone in the tech world figured out how to digitally disintermediate the country from the mess made of its finances. ]]> Fri, 18 Jul 2008 07:27:56 -0400
It about time someone in the tech world figured out how to digitally disintermediate the country from the mess made of its finances. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85216-a-long-term-structural-solution-to-the-banking-crisis?source=feed#comment-206789 206789 Wed, 16 Jul 2008 09:28:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84875-should-i-buy-fannie-or-freddie-stock-today?source=feed#comment-205302 205302 Mon, 14 Jul 2008 13:26:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84770-housing-barron-s-calls-a-bottom?source=feed#comment-204646 204646 There's no support for housing prices till someone remembers how to create pay checks substantial enough to pay bills without borrowing. Sorry, he can have all the numbers he wants, he still needs to be able to think about what's right before he starts counting.]]> Sun, 13 Jul 2008 18:09:45 -0400 There's no support for housing prices till someone remembers how to create pay checks substantial enough to pay bills without borrowing. Sorry, he can have all the numbers he wants, he still needs to be able to think about what's right before he starts counting.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83381-fed-to-ease-restrictions-on-private-equity-investments-in-banks-it-s-about-time?source=feed#comment-196630 196630 Tue, 01 Jul 2008 12:33:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/82516-are-we-facing-a-new-wave-of-sovereign-bond-defaults?source=feed#comment-192029 192029 Tue, 24 Jun 2008 15:56:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/64938-bond-insurer-break-up-beware-unintended-consequences?source=feed#comment-116830 116830 Sun, 17 Feb 2008 19:04:05 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/63040-china-s-inflation-hits-american-price-tags?source=feed#comment-114553 114553
There might be others who think there in the same position as China, mightn't there?

Probably be a good thing to look at both sides of the story, or maybe just more than one side. There might be some benefit from that, wouldn't you agree?]]> Mon, 04 Feb 2008 21:10:30 -0500
There might be others who think there in the same position as China, mightn't there?

Probably be a good thing to look at both sides of the story, or maybe just more than one side. There might be some benefit from that, wouldn't you agree?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/61661-who-is-jerome-kerviel?source=feed#comment-113012 113012
Putting a face on the functionary who was playing with 70 billion whatever kind of concretises stuff. But, please, who is going to compare his 'losses' with the 'write downs' at Citi Merrill and who knows where else? What's a write down if not a leveraged bet gone bad?]]> Sat, 26 Jan 2008 23:55:29 -0500
Putting a face on the functionary who was playing with 70 billion whatever kind of concretises stuff. But, please, who is going to compare his 'losses' with the 'write downs' at Citi Merrill and who knows where else? What's a write down if not a leveraged bet gone bad?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/61614-fed-s-folly-fooled-by-flawed-futures?source=feed#comment-112758 112758
Soc Gen's loss must be some fraction of what was in the black-hole.
Was it stock, commodity, mortgage or whatever-based? Who knows, probably no one will ever know. However until more attention is given to the matter of leverage unwinding as an inter-market, international process discussion about amounts and largeness or smallness of problems will miss the target. It's the barn door the target was pinned to which has disappeared. We all need to know how big the barn was and what was inside when the door disappeared to make judgements about size and evaluate effects.]]> Fri, 25 Jan 2008 08:07:05 -0500
Soc Gen's loss must be some fraction of what was in the black-hole.
Was it stock, commodity, mortgage or whatever-based? Who knows, probably no one will ever know. However until more attention is given to the matter of leverage unwinding as an inter-market, international process discussion about amounts and largeness or smallness of problems will miss the target. It's the barn door the target was pinned to which has disappeared. We all need to know how big the barn was and what was inside when the door disappeared to make judgements about size and evaluate effects.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/61446-if-real-journalism-fails-as-a-business-should-government-step-in?source=feed#comment-112634 112634
But why should the government be limited to failed or failing business models like these?

If government was going to get into the media business wouldn't it make sense to do it properly? One company, full multi-media access across the entire spectrum, from cell-phones and blackberries to TV and movies houses distributed through all means. Establishment of an officially sanctioned training program for journalists so that they know stuff. Cooperation between journalists and the diplomatic and military services around the world.

Oh, perhaps Madison Avenue should be included in the mix too. That way there wouldn't be any disorienting shocks caused by changes in coverage reflecting changes in ownership.




]]> Thu, 24 Jan 2008 12:28:22 -0500
But why should the government be limited to failed or failing business models like these?

If government was going to get into the media business wouldn't it make sense to do it properly? One company, full multi-media access across the entire spectrum, from cell-phones and blackberries to TV and movies houses distributed through all means. Establishment of an officially sanctioned training program for journalists so that they know stuff. Cooperation between journalists and the diplomatic and military services around the world.

Oh, perhaps Madison Avenue should be included in the mix too. That way there wouldn't be any disorienting shocks caused by changes in coverage reflecting changes in ownership.




]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/56584-libor-what-s-the-big-deal?source=feed#comment-104445 104445
Or, what might be the relation between the custom built derivatives and the futures, options and indices for currencies, bonds mortgages and commodities which are/were traded in various places?

How do the hedges between these different "sides" of the derivative world work? How do they impact the asset/liability structures of the financial system.

May the LIBOR matter not indicate, perhaps, some major dislocation developing in the interstices between these different markets, tradeable instruments, and the world of hedged on and off balance sheet liabilities?]]> Fri, 07 Dec 2007 08:13:25 -0500
Or, what might be the relation between the custom built derivatives and the futures, options and indices for currencies, bonds mortgages and commodities which are/were traded in various places?

How do the hedges between these different "sides" of the derivative world work? How do they impact the asset/liability structures of the financial system.

May the LIBOR matter not indicate, perhaps, some major dislocation developing in the interstices between these different markets, tradeable instruments, and the world of hedged on and off balance sheet liabilities?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/54763-housing-is-no-different-in-portland-and-seattle?source=feed#comment-102484 102484
So their position vis-a-vis the current pricing curve may not be anything like what you'd think at first sight. And their behavior may give some clue about the relative weights of their sunk costs and expected loss in pricing 'power.'


]]> Tue, 20 Nov 2007 09:23:59 -0500
So their position vis-a-vis the current pricing curve may not be anything like what you'd think at first sight. And their behavior may give some clue about the relative weights of their sunk costs and expected loss in pricing 'power.'


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/50395-property-worsens-beginning-middle-or-end?source=feed#comment-99156 99156
If what was considered equity evaporates what will the LTV ratio range be in lenders underwriting guidelines, when L is a fixed amount in dollars, and as a proportion of V probably 1.0 or greater, and V is declining, and always less than L?

The larger the overhang of unsold homes the greater the certainty of future price reductions. The larger the difference between the amount to be refinanced and the value of the asset against which the security is to be issued, the more cash the borrower needs to bring to the table.

Therefore the prospect of future price reductions will be to the 'credit crunch' as the prospect of housing price increases were to the willingness to finance evanescent equity expansion]]> Fri, 19 Oct 2007 09:22:17 -0400
If what was considered equity evaporates what will the LTV ratio range be in lenders underwriting guidelines, when L is a fixed amount in dollars, and as a proportion of V probably 1.0 or greater, and V is declining, and always less than L?

The larger the overhang of unsold homes the greater the certainty of future price reductions. The larger the difference between the amount to be refinanced and the value of the asset against which the security is to be issued, the more cash the borrower needs to bring to the table.

Therefore the prospect of future price reductions will be to the 'credit crunch' as the prospect of housing price increases were to the willingness to finance evanescent equity expansion]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/48757-pending-home-sales-hit-new-low?source=feed#comment-97535 97535 Wed, 03 Oct 2007 07:05:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/44272-big-ben-panics-and-gold-responds?source=feed#comment-93532 93532
Suppose, pre-Greenspan's interest rate reductions, the 'house' would have sold for around 250K. There will be an 80% first and some mix of down payment and second for the balance. After the rate decreases and the mania the price may have gone north of $700k. The owner has no equity in the property. His income is the same as the guy who bought it at 250K.

The housing market turned in the summer of 2005. By last summer it was clear that sales had collapsed nationally. By this summer as inventories move beyond 11 months worth of sales at current levels we now know we're in a buyer's strike. Buyer's are waiting for the excesses to be wrung out of the system.

That may get resolved by what might come next in housing when the "sellers' panic"."Let's do what we have to do to sell, never mind holding on for price."

Already the equity in the $750k house should have been marked down. When the sellers' panic begins the mark downs will head back to where these houses were priced before Greenspan started his thing.

With the buyer's strike and houses not selling it is not possible to know what the mortgages at the bottom of the heap are worth because there is no value for the asset securing the mortgage. They aren't worth anything because no one wants to be holding the asset when prices collapse. Anyone lending today is not only going to need a really qualified buyer, with real income and documentation to back it up, they will also want to build in protections against the sellers' panic which will set prices much, much lower.

This problem cannot be dealt with in the credit markets either by interest rate reductions or repos and fractional lending. That will produce digital Weimar inflation even while the properties securing the asset class and everything leveraged against it continues at zero. That's when the Fed goes into the business of property management and becomes the country's landlord. Somehow that doesn't seem like anymore of a solution than having the banks take over the properties.

Last time anything like this happened they had to wait for the 'holiday' that cleaned out the financial part of the mess, which included converting what they then called "balloon" notes into 30-yr self-amortizing paper. This gave banks an income stream and kept people in their properties. Nowadays you'd have to forget about all the fancy structured stuff, and just replace the computers its all on with new ones with clean hard drives. But people get attached to all the bits and bites they say are making money for their employers.]]> Mon, 13 Aug 2007 09:10:02 -0400
Suppose, pre-Greenspan's interest rate reductions, the 'house' would have sold for around 250K. There will be an 80% first and some mix of down payment and second for the balance. After the rate decreases and the mania the price may have gone north of $700k. The owner has no equity in the property. His income is the same as the guy who bought it at 250K.

The housing market turned in the summer of 2005. By last summer it was clear that sales had collapsed nationally. By this summer as inventories move beyond 11 months worth of sales at current levels we now know we're in a buyer's strike. Buyer's are waiting for the excesses to be wrung out of the system.

That may get resolved by what might come next in housing when the "sellers' panic"."Let's do what we have to do to sell, never mind holding on for price."

Already the equity in the $750k house should have been marked down. When the sellers' panic begins the mark downs will head back to where these houses were priced before Greenspan started his thing.

With the buyer's strike and houses not selling it is not possible to know what the mortgages at the bottom of the heap are worth because there is no value for the asset securing the mortgage. They aren't worth anything because no one wants to be holding the asset when prices collapse. Anyone lending today is not only going to need a really qualified buyer, with real income and documentation to back it up, they will also want to build in protections against the sellers' panic which will set prices much, much lower.

This problem cannot be dealt with in the credit markets either by interest rate reductions or repos and fractional lending. That will produce digital Weimar inflation even while the properties securing the asset class and everything leveraged against it continues at zero. That's when the Fed goes into the business of property management and becomes the country's landlord. Somehow that doesn't seem like anymore of a solution than having the banks take over the properties.

Last time anything like this happened they had to wait for the 'holiday' that cleaned out the financial part of the mess, which included converting what they then called "balloon" notes into 30-yr self-amortizing paper. This gave banks an income stream and kept people in their properties. Nowadays you'd have to forget about all the fancy structured stuff, and just replace the computers its all on with new ones with clean hard drives. But people get attached to all the bits and bites they say are making money for their employers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/44043-market-sinkhole-alert-look-out-below?source=feed#comment-93296 93296
Of course banks leveraged up the hedge funds by lending to them. Some think banks could be holding say $6.4 trillion worth of hedge fund debt. That's like between 30 and 40 per cent of the capitalization of the stock market. Could be a motive for them to own some stocks for a while too.

The amounts in Europe are much bigger but the effect depends on the reserve ratios used.

We're lucky to have computers. With hundreds of billions being pumped into banks by central banks we probably no longer have enough wheel barrows to move all the money around. Good job inflation is still under control.]]> Thu, 09 Aug 2007 18:19:19 -0400
Of course banks leveraged up the hedge funds by lending to them. Some think banks could be holding say $6.4 trillion worth of hedge fund debt. That's like between 30 and 40 per cent of the capitalization of the stock market. Could be a motive for them to own some stocks for a while too.

The amounts in Europe are much bigger but the effect depends on the reserve ratios used.

We're lucky to have computers. With hundreds of billions being pumped into banks by central banks we probably no longer have enough wheel barrows to move all the money around. Good job inflation is still under control.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/44043-market-sinkhole-alert-look-out-below?source=feed#comment-93282 93282
The actions taken by the ECB today, and their stated intent, imply an awareness of a "problem" which might assume that the something which is amiss is as many orders of magnitude more serious than thought here as the difference between the funds provided by the ECB and the Fed through their market operations.

The orthodoxy is tht derivatives spread risk and permit hedging etc. The evaporation of the asset class on which the risk spreading is based, and I don't mean the mortgages but the indeterminate pricing of housing and the lack of certainty in the repayment income streams reverses the risk profile which has been securitized sold around the world and provided the basis for trades against commodities, interest rates and currencies.

It will be extremely interesting I guess to watch the discussions between major oil and gas producers and the large scale consumers of their product. At what point do "market mechanisms" which are part of the compromised derivative structure, get replaced by long term state to state deals, as people realize that while dollars are easily come by there's no longer much that can be done with them?]]> Thu, 09 Aug 2007 15:41:06 -0400
The actions taken by the ECB today, and their stated intent, imply an awareness of a "problem" which might assume that the something which is amiss is as many orders of magnitude more serious than thought here as the difference between the funds provided by the ECB and the Fed through their market operations.

The orthodoxy is tht derivatives spread risk and permit hedging etc. The evaporation of the asset class on which the risk spreading is based, and I don't mean the mortgages but the indeterminate pricing of housing and the lack of certainty in the repayment income streams reverses the risk profile which has been securitized sold around the world and provided the basis for trades against commodities, interest rates and currencies.

It will be extremely interesting I guess to watch the discussions between major oil and gas producers and the large scale consumers of their product. At what point do "market mechanisms" which are part of the compromised derivative structure, get replaced by long term state to state deals, as people realize that while dollars are easily come by there's no longer much that can be done with them?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/43365-hedge-fund-induced-market-troubles-may-not-be-imagined-after-all?source=feed#comment-92775 92775
How would these contrary effects be manifest in the derivative positions borrower and lender have each taken to off-set some of these risks? Do the effects cancel each other out? Or are they multiplicative?

Won't the consequences of this require some kind of "holiday" rather than liquidity injections while whoever tries to make sense out of what is left? At what point would it make sense to start thinking about what the "post-holiday" world might look like and be made of as well as trying to work within such a function as appears to be taking its course?]]> Fri, 03 Aug 2007 08:55:02 -0400
How would these contrary effects be manifest in the derivative positions borrower and lender have each taken to off-set some of these risks? Do the effects cancel each other out? Or are they multiplicative?

Won't the consequences of this require some kind of "holiday" rather than liquidity injections while whoever tries to make sense out of what is left? At what point would it make sense to start thinking about what the "post-holiday" world might look like and be made of as well as trying to work within such a function as appears to be taking its course?]]>