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jdawg888

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  • Allied Nevada: Solvent In The Short Term, Risky For The Long Haul [View article]
    Yes, they've been buying for the past several quarters.
    Jul 4 03:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 3 Gold Miners To Play A $1,500 Rally [View article]
    I wouldn't be long ANV if I didn't think that 2b the case.
    Jul 4 12:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 3 Gold Miners To Play A $1,500 Rally [View article]
    Gold down, but silver down less or flat, so gold/silver ratio declining ... a good sign since it tends to correlate with a bull market in precious metals.
    Jul 3 11:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 3 Gold Miners To Play A $1,500 Rally [View article]
    ANV shorts are going to get f*cked!
    Jul 3 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 3 Gold Miners To Play A $1,500 Rally [View article]
    AuEQ goes up as price of gold goes up since more gold becomes economical to mine.
    Jul 3 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Have We Seen This Golden Movie Before? [View article]
    He didn't mean goldbug as an offense term ... it's simply a term that most people use for people who invest in gold. If you're a contrarian, then maybe being viewed skeptically as a "goldbug" is a good thing. By the time the media and everyone agrees with you that gold is a good investment, it will be a bad investment.
    Jun 22 05:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yelp, Inc.: In A State Of Cognitive Dissonance [View article]
    Central banks blowing bubbles. Money will gravitate to companies with greatest growth and relative good perceived value. Yelp dominates in reviews, esp restaurants and other categories. At ~ $67 now ... I think it can go back to $100 within a few months.
    Jun 9 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    My thoughts exactly.
    Feb 23 12:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    Well, the ElliottWavers agree with you: "The Gold And Silver Smack-Down Cometh." http://bit.ly/MPIzzZ
    Feb 23 12:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Most Dividend Investors Never Succeed [View article]
    Another factor to consider is that if one identifies an undervalued dividend stock with good growth potential, private equity might just snatch it up, therefore, you get a quick gain, but you miss out the larger long-term dividends and equity growth. You would be forced to recognize capital gains tax, thus leaving you with less principal on your next investment.

    Then a number of years from now private equity sells the stock back at a somewhat overvalued price. Maybe another sell-off in the stock market occurs, then another private equity firm takes the company private just when you were hoping to have a buy and hold dividend retirement stock.

    This is another reason to buy and hold low cost index ETFs.
    With higher capital gains tax rate, medicare 3.8% tax, and possibly high state taxes on capital gains (13.3% if you lived in California), you would have to double the performance of an index ETF to make investing in individual stocks worth your while. If you look at the best investors with 30 year track records, 15% returns seems to upper limits of human ability. With S&P 500 increasing about 10%/yr, the best can only beat an index by 5%/yr on average.
    Dec 28 12:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Most Dividend Investors Never Succeed [View article]
    Say you buy a dividend stock, but years from now the economics of the business changed. Change is happening so quickly that any industry is subject to upheaval. Old electric utilities face risk from distributed solar power. Old tobacco face obsolescence from combination of greater health consciousness and rise of e-cigarettes. Heck, even hotels are facing major competition from AirBnB. What's next?
    It's true that it's difficult to beat the market. Even the best investors with 20 year track records are considered geniuses for beating the market by several percentage points. Seems easier to just buy and hold a low-cost index, though with lower dividends and lower growth. Even if you choose the right dividend stock with faster growth, you may decide to sell it and buy another dividend stock down the road. After paying taxes, are you still going to be ahead of the "default" route of simple indexing???
    Dec 26 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Fall For The Taper Talk Again: Buy Gold On This Related Decline [View article]
    The central banks have been consistently surprising the markets, maybe on purpose. Expect the consensus forecast to be wrong.
    Dec 19 07:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allied Nevada: Solvent In The Short Term, Risky For The Long Haul [View article]
    I listened to the conference call. That wasn't David Einhorn. When you call in, an operator asks who you are and which company you are with. You can be anyone you want to be. Maybe next time someone will be Bruce Wayne of Wayne Enterprises.
    http://bit.ly/18GReJl
    Dec 13 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allied Nevada: Solvent In The Short Term, Risky For The Long Haul [View article]
    Even at $1,000 gold, this company can survive for 3 years on heap leaching.
    3 years is a long time. I found it ridiculous how on yahoo's ANV messageboard this company was being compared to JAG. They are far, far apart at this juncture. In my mind, I consider 3 years a type "margin of safety" if one is long-term bullish on the gold price, but wants to find a company that can weather the bear market storm in the gold price. This analysis should be great comfort for ANV shareholders. Given Mr. Olinger's cash sensitivity analysis, I don't why shorts keep piling it on. http://bit.ly/1h5fqKO
    Noteworthy that Third Avenue became a new shareholder as of 9/30/13. It's good to know that Marty Whitman's fund thinks ANV represents relative "safe and cheap" at these levels. They are good at identifying companies with strong going concern basis. Mr. Olinger's analysis adds proof to this, and I bet that Third Avenue did similar analysis coming to the same conclusion, though with a relatively small position.
    http://bit.ly/1h5fslX
    Dec 12 11:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Return Of King Coal And The Coal Stocks To Play A Rebound [View article]
    Golar LNG is planning to export LNG with floating terminals. Maybe see some impact in 2015 to 2016?

    Probably the telltale sign of a possible coal sector recovery is if you see industry-wide insider buying. Couple that with prices that seem to be firming and perhaps confirming with stronger coal exports correlated with Baltic Dry Index. They both peaked together in 2008. TimeOnTarget, these are just my general observations. It's obvious you have studied the natural gas and coal sector much more extensively than I have.
    Nov 30 07:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
32 Comments
27 Likes