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I am an independent market analyst. I have years of experience watching, trading, and analyzing the markets. **Disclaimer: I am not a licensed professional. All of my ideas are my personal opinions only. I am not to be held liable for any losses occurred from the basis of my advice.
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  • Spy Will Be Bearish In The Coming Weeks

    (click to enlarge)Based upon my technical analysis, and the recent strong bearish reversal in the recent days, I believe the S&P 500 will be heading to the 1450 area in the coming weeks. I have attached a weekly chart with my channel drawn. In the chart you will notice a dominant trend to the upside has been formed since the end of 2011. Thus far, the price action has respected these boundaries. I would like to point out that the S&P tested this boundary last week by poking above the trend line and hitting 1530. Since moving above the trend line, the S&P has been hit hard with heavy selling. It is important to note that the action to the upside has been on low volume, while this recent sell off has been met with strong and above average volume. This tells me that the market wants to go down. As of now the target of this move will be the bottom of the trend line at 1450. Although it is hard to pick a specific timeframe, prior move down within this channel has taken a total of 9-10 weeks. Therefore we can expect a similar time frame, perhaps even a bit quicker to within the next 6-8 weeks. Please take notice of the RSI and slow stochastic. Notice how these are also at their resistance lines, and have also been respecting their trend lines. It will be important to keep an eye on not only the price action but the indicators as well as these can give early warning signs of a reversal, or stronger than expected sell offs based on divergence in these indicators.

    Disclosure: I am short SPY.

    Feb 27 5:08 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Why I Shorted The S&P In The Final Minutes Of Trading

    (click to enlarge)The E-mini S&P 500 did something very interesting to get my attention and initiate a short position in the SPY (S&P 500,SPY) in the last 5 minutes of trading. The price action ran right up to the trend line at the close and was immediately rejected. This was a sign for me to get short for an expected test of the lower trend line. I attached a 30 minute chart to show the channels I have been following. I would expect the price action to receive support at the 1487 level. If this does not hold, it would be a sign to me that the market wants to make another low.

    Disclosure: I am short SPY.

    Feb 27 5:03 AM | Link | Comment!
  • SPY Relief Rally Ahead

    I have been adamant about the Spy needing a sell off based upon the badly diverging indicators displayed on the daily chart. The SPY has since been under heavy selling pressure, but it is my belief that the bears will let the bulls breathe a little and make a grind up to the 152 level.

    (click to enlarge)First, I would like to point out the positive divergence appearing on the hourly charts. This is most notably displayed on the MACD and RSI. As price made a new low at 149, the technical have failed to confirm this with lower lows. Second, the market is way below its' linear regression line. This is an indicator I like to use for support and resistance levels. If the price remains below its' linear regression line I view it as bearish, and vice-versa. So for now I am expecting a temporary level in the near future in the SPY to about the 152 area. It is in this area I would start looking for short opportunities.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a short position in SPY over the next 72 hours.

    Tags: SPY
    Feb 26 3:18 AM | Link | Comment!
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