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jmodrkrk

jmodrkrk
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  • Screamin' And Yellen Higher Rates Are Comin': Part II: Get Your Portfolio Ready With Bank Loan ETFs [View article]
    Yeah, enjoy the principal losses as interest rates float higher and you get no coupon increment for the first 150 basis points. The floors in these things can be very high - I don't think most retail investors (or even their advisors) get that. At the first realization that their coupons won't be increasing like they think they will, it will be sell, sell, sell for the herds. It's a crowded trade and I wouldn't be surprised to see it persist for some time, but you're not getting enough value for the risk at the current valuations -- if you are worried about interest rates, stay short duration with higher yields and/or shorter maturities.
    Mar 24 12:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DEE-Fense, DEE-Fense, DEE-Fense [View article]
    "That's a rewarding way to play defense when rates are sure to rise."

    The age of true floating rate debt is dead. Most "floating" rate debt is plugged with 100 or even 200 basis point floors. You won't see any coupon improvement until you've already sat through that. I'm hesitant to get back into floating rate because it's been the popular trade for the last year.

    The long end of the municipal curve is where the greatest value on a total return front is. Again, I'd prefer to own the bonds themselves and not the funds. It's not about guessing where rates will go (a well discussed fool's errand) but what portfolio provides the greatest total return in almost every interest rate scenario. And frankly, you aren't getting paid enough on the short end on a risk adjusted basis, rates up or down.
    Dec 17 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hobbit watching: Sequel off to strong global start, premium viewing a boost [View news story]
    boring story line malarky. yeah who wants plot. i think they're making another expendables movie, you should check it out.
    Dec 15 10:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hunger Games wrap: Teens show tent-pole strategy alive and well [View news story]
    more like if you miss you break even. john carter, easily the biggest failure in recent memory cost 275M. it still grossed 282M.

    edit: there is a lot of revenue sharing so yes the producer takes the brunt of the loss as they are the full cost outlay.
    Nov 24 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vranos buys big slug of Ellington stock [View news story]
    Correct me if I'm wrong, as settlor, he would have established the trust and named the trustee and beneficiaries of the account. So now he is purchasing the shares from the account and bringing them into his own personal holdings (assuming he was not a named beneficiary of the trust)?
    Nov 18 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital Declares Its 69th, 70th, and 71st Consecutive Cash Distributions to Shareholders, Exceeding $1.1 Billion in Cumulative Distributions to Shareholders Since 2004 [View article]
    f*$^ing loving it.
    Nov 4 08:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rebuttal: 'Is A House Really A Good Investment?' [View article]
    I'm a first time homebuyer and did much of the same iterative process when thinking about what to buy. I live in a major metropolitan area and pretty much came to the conclusion that I would only be comfortable buying something that would rent easily and cover the monthly expenses + 10%. I lucked out with a really low rate on a short sale condo and am already enjoying the improved cashflow + tax benefits of ownership. And if I ever move, it won't be an issue. My end conclusion from the whole affair was buy way way less home than you can afford. If you would need the principal back to purchase another home/couldn't rent it for cost, you can't afford it. Period.
    Jul 26 12:22 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some sell side notes rolling in on Apple (AAPL): JPMorgan reiterates its Buy and $545 PT, expecting shares to exhibit a relief rally in the near-term. Goldman ups its PT to $530 from $515, but expects the stock to remain rangebound until a new product cycle begins. Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty sees a tradable rally headed into new product cycles. CFO Oppenheimer on the CC (transcript): "We are on track to have a very busy fall. I would like to leave it there and go into more detail in October." Shares +3.8% premarket. [View news story]
    and this misuse of terminology continues... probably time to leave SA for good
    Jul 24 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some sell side notes rolling in on Apple (AAPL): JPMorgan reiterates its Buy and $545 PT, expecting shares to exhibit a relief rally in the near-term. Goldman ups its PT to $530 from $515, but expects the stock to remain rangebound until a new product cycle begins. Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty sees a tradable rally headed into new product cycles. CFO Oppenheimer on the CC (transcript): "We are on track to have a very busy fall. I would like to leave it there and go into more detail in October." Shares +3.8% premarket. [View news story]
    'Sell side' coverage can be either positive or negative --- it's 'sell side' in that it's commentary coming from brokerages and wirehouses research groups. This is different than the 'buy side' which would be those working in asset management, financial advisory, etc.
    Jul 24 12:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Some sell side notes rolling in on Apple (AAPL): JPMorgan reiterates its Buy and $545 PT, expecting shares to exhibit a relief rally in the near-term. Goldman ups its PT to $530 from $515, but expects the stock to remain rangebound until a new product cycle begins. Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty sees a tradable rally headed into new product cycles. CFO Oppenheimer on the CC (transcript): "We are on track to have a very busy fall. I would like to leave it there and go into more detail in October." Shares +3.8% premarket. [View news story]
    im thinking you don't really know what 'sell side' means.
    Jul 24 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "If Detroit isn't too big to fail, is any city?" asks the WSJ. There's Oakland, "Detroit's doppelganger on the West Coast," where 100 police were laid off recently to fund retirement benefits and pension-obligation bonds despite high crime. Philadelphia spends about 20% of its budget on pensions, while Chicago Public Schools is firing 2,100 people due to a $400M rise in retirement payments. "The pension crisis is no longer around the corner," said Mayor Rahm Emanuel. "It has arrived at our schools." [View news story]
    In the event of a failing nation state I'd be more interested in firearms, canned meat, blankets and gasoline.

    Gold has it's place as a vehicle for investors (yes, the physical variety too) but to think that physical gold would do anyone any good in a time of political destability is asinine. It would probably get you killed, probably by that guy who's got all the blankets and guns.
    Jul 22 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • So Much For Non-Correlation In Hedge Funds [View article]
    Wait -- when are HFs going to be sold to every mom and pop investor? Is this some new development in the accredited investor rules? I think not. Expanded advertising for the funds is now a reality, sure. How is this caveat emptor any different than anything else? Non-accredited investors have been able to use total return swap arrangments to mirror HFs for as little as 25k most places. The expanded rules may pick up a few suckers but I don't know that it changes that much in the aggregate. This won't change the fact that less than 10% of Americans would even be allowed to invest in HFs (excluding the 35 Non-AC investor rule).

    Yes, the overwhelming majority of HFs are long/short, so I would expect their correlations to grow as the market goes almost straight up (see '08 - present), even with mild underperformance. But those who are investing in these vehicles (no offence, likely very few on SA) aren't owning them for the good times. It's for the bad/volatile times. But we all know this. I'm interested to know if the Alpha graph shown here is adjusted for survivorship bias or not as well.

    Foreign instutional and HNW investor demand for actively managed access to U.S. markets will only continue to increase. Avoiding U.S. tax filings in exchange for paying for blanket FDAP withholdings (which can later be mitigated or eliminated entirely through treaties or statutory exemptions) is worth it for this level of clientele.

    Are HFs the next fleecing of the average American citizen? Maybe, but probably not. At least, no more than reverse mortgages or annuities.
    Jul 15 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should the government help finance homeownership? asks Robert Shiller in the NYT, referring to the conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration's direct subsidization of home-ownership, not to mention execptionially loose monetary policy. Shiller doesn't seem so convinced, pointing out that renters can more easily move if they find a new job, while it's "hardly wise to put all of one's life savings into a single, highly leveraged investment in a home." [View news story]
    Anybody that uses the entirety of their savings to finance a home purchase is doing it wrong. You either don't have enough savings or are living outside your means. Workforce mobility is extremely important -- if you can't afford to commit to home ownership and the potential prospect of moving around for work, just rent. Or buy something you can rent if you had to move.
    Jul 14 10:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Talks are underway with Netflix (NFLX) for another season of Arrested Development, says producer Brian Grazer. AD's reboot, replete with an unconventional episode structure, has drawn a harsher response from reviewers than House of Cards. But from all indications, viewing activity has been healthy, and a recent Cowen survey found 28% of the show's viewers saying they're less likely to cancel their Netflix subscriptions because of it (the rest were indifferent). [View news story]
    weren't the episodes a full hour long?
    Jul 12 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Talks are underway with Netflix (NFLX) for another season of Arrested Development, says producer Brian Grazer. AD's reboot, replete with an unconventional episode structure, has drawn a harsher response from reviewers than House of Cards. But from all indications, viewing activity has been healthy, and a recent Cowen survey found 28% of the show's viewers saying they're less likely to cancel their Netflix subscriptions because of it (the rest were indifferent). [View news story]
    yeah gotta agree - felt like a chore to watch, only did so because i felt like i should see it through for the old season's sakes.
    Jul 11 07:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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