ari5000

Even Amazon Bears Are Bullish

Let's all get together in nine months then when AMZN is back to $40.

Only down 2.30 today... shouldn't take long.

Even Amazon Bears Are Bullish

Using a simple DCF calculator -- the highest value I can make it come up with is $78.

AMZN is a great company, like AAPL, but we all know a great company doesn't always mean a great stock price.

If the Fed were to raise interest rates .50 tomorrow, would AMZN bulls still be happy holding at 130? My guess that would "change everything" - but it really shouldn't. But obviously -- this is not about fair value or 'value' of anything anymore.

Whitney Gets Bearish: Will She Be Right Again?

given low interest rates that will last forever, constant stimulus from all global banks... the destruction of the dollar....

and the complete neutering of accounting rules so that Citigroup and other banks never have to book losses... I don't see a big financial blow meltdown.

M. Whitney is 'right' in that there's no 'good' reason for the market to be rallying. But there are plenty of bad reasons why it is. Saying she has "no idea" just kind of shows how clueless she is. But I feel her pain.

Meredith Whitney: 'I Haven't Been This Bearish in a Year'

Given the nasty reaction she got from all the Yahooligans and StockTwits -- I'm thinking Whitney is probably 100% correct and the big ass-whooping drop is just around the corner.

If people were really bullish -- they wouldn't give a crap what another talking head has to say... but everyone knows this rally is climbing on the back of a broken dollar and not much else. Fumes and lies. And now very extended. Small cap companies I follow keep putting out really bad results and are getting hammered. The divergences are already there. Just needs a push and over the waterfall this market goes.

If This Is a Recovery...

Priced in gold, David Rosenberg's prediction of 600 by Oct. 2009 is not that far off...

Understanding the Dollar Debate

If the dollar crumbles, it's not so bad for wealthy people with actual savings -- they can invest in gold / stocks and become wealthier.

For the majority however, they can't take advantage of the destruction of purchasing power. In fact, the bottom 80% of our country or so will be severely punished by a diminished quality of life as oil, health care, food prices slowly rise. I doubt anyone's getting a big pay raise. Social Security recipients are receiving no COLA this year.

How come after every crisis, the guys who work for Goldman and all the bank CEOs make out like bandits and the national debt (paid by the plebians) just grows and grows?

Rome tried this whole thing out a long time ago. It didn't work then, it won't work now. Why should it? It's the same road to collapse. It'll take a long time of course. They'll drag it out. But the result will be the same. I think people keep expecting gold to spike to 10,000/oz and stocks to collapse but I see just a slow and steady decline. Right now stocks are heading up with the global money printing. It's the ABD trade (anything but dollars). But there will be violent plunges because even AMZN at some price in the 200s is probably riskier than holding a dollar.

It's all been tried before. Politicians work for one class of people. The rich will be fine. Just make sure you're rich. Otherwise this country is not going to be a fun place to live anymore.

Are You Prepared for an 800-Point “Blowoff” Day?

i figure the guys loaded up on inverse ETFs should start squawking right about now... pain is getting intolerable.

UUP up huge today and still no significant selloff... being short just no fun anymore.

Barnes & Noble: A Sale on BKS

Interesting idea -- hope it tanks on a market selloff. I might just buy some.

Travel Centers of America: Rare Value Investing Opportunity

and it's back to the 3s....


awful pick for anyone except fast traders. Just didn't do careful analysis at all... markets at new highs... this thing tanks.

Bofi Holding Inc. Sidesteps Global Financial Crisis

great work as usual. Not a fan of banks either...

While Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein understands that "people are pissed off" with bankers, he says everybody should be happy: "Companies are looking to grow again and raise money. That's where we come in. The financial system may have led us into the crisis but it will lead us out."

Lead us out?

How do these finanicial companies lead? Lead in what? Creating jobs? Adding value to our society. They lead in enriching a few upper management employees to millions and leaving the rest of the country saddled with enormous debt.

Today's late morning selloff coincided with the House Oversight hearing on commercial real estate. Fed's John Greenlee sent a chill through markets when he said (.pdf) banks remain at risk of "sizable additional credit losses" given the outlook for production and employment, adding, "Poor loan quality, subpar earnings, and uncertainty about future conditions raise questions about capital adequacy for some institutions."

guy has no business saying truthful things. Just ruins everything.

Grantham. Greenblatt See Value in 'Quality': 10 Guru Strategy Stocks

not much growth on the list.

probably will get a whole lot cheaper during the correction phase.


Magic Formula screen is one of those systems like Dogs of the Dow which has had its day. Now it's just a broken system that will deliver good but not beatable results going forward.

China in a Bubble?

CIT a failure:

U.S. stocks, especially financials -- are 100x more overvalued than most Chinese stocks.

But a little less so after Bloody Monday... coming your way in tomorrow.

ChiNext Launch Should Boost China Small Cap Index

job losses? Why do job losses in America mean the markets have to go down?

There's a lot more to the global economy than America. The world can probably grow quite rapidly with 20% of the U.S. population unemployed. GS employees and the top 10% are getting richer every day -- there will be no big drop in U.S. consumption as everyone thinks. People keep focusing on the trees and miss the forest.