ari5000

43 Comments

    • Why I'm Not Buying Oil's Recent 'Correction' [view article]
      If I had a nickel for every Home Prices have Bottomed, Oil Prices Have Topped article....

      So far --- 100% of the articles have been dead wrong. Quite a track record over the past year.       Jul 27 10:06 AM
    • News Flash: Major Market Turns Aren't Announced In Advance [view article]
      all these banks are toast - just like the ones in Japan long ago. How long did the Nikkei take to recover after the Japanese real estate bubble burst? Do you know the answer?

      The crap C, LEH, GS have is 10 times worse. Paulson can't rescue them all. No more 30 percent pops because the shorts can't get in anymore.

      Another hopelessly hopeful bottom caller that will fade away as the deflation continues. This country was ruined beyond belief and it's still the 2nd inning of this nightmare.       Jul 24 11:08 PM
    • The Oil Bubble Will Meet the Same Fate as Tech, Housing [view article]
      Dude, anyone can sell a summer home -- they don't need. Or a tulip.

      Why don't you try not using any gasoline for a week?

      Ain't no bubble, my friend, because you and I can't live without it.       Jul 18 02:13 PM
    • How High Leverage Has Brought Down the Whole Banking Industry [view article]
      Very good article. Jul 18 02:02 PM
    • The Death of Natural Gas [view article]
      NG is the must have commodity. It will stay strong on demand and strong on clean energy initiatives. All commodities take wild swings. NG has almost completed a 50% retracement of its massive run -- which it did with almost no pullback. Thus -- when a 100% ends -- the pullback is usually massive. (SKF holders nod their heads.)

      I agree UNG will probably flatten out --around the 200 day MA is about right. Far too demand over the next 30 years for UNG to ever 'die'. Rest for a quarter no doubt. NG will be back. As for the 'oil is bubble' crowd. About the time they start slapping high fives and saying "I told you so" on CNBC -- buy it all.       Jul 17 08:03 PM
    • Solar Shorts Keep On Rising Even As Oil Surprises [view article]
      Also,

      Wouldn't FSLR at over 100x earnings be much more of a "bubble" than almost any oil company you can think of? There's very oil stocks that trade at such multiples.       Jul 14 07:47 PM
    • Solar Shorts Keep On Rising Even As Oil Surprises [view article]
      Is your assumption that oil will correct based on data?

      Unlike tulips, summer homes or internet stocks, demand for oil will be increasing for the next 30 years and very few people or countries could stop buying it even if they wanted to. This oil "bubble" has characteristics that are unlike any other bubble in history.       Jul 14 08:20 AM
    • The ABCs of the Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac Problems [view article]
      If the Fed 'guarantees' the debt -- then they are backing up $5 trillion in debt -- of which quite a good chunk will be written off. Probably not the whole thing (homes don't got to zero) but even a 20% drop is another trillion added to national debt.

      This is probably the best choice. FNM/FRE should definitely trade down to ZERO. No way they will get a dime. Otherwise home market will freeze completely.       Jul 12 03:48 PM
    • Putting $1T Subprime Mortgage Losses in Perspective [view article]
      U.S. stock market losses this year are over $2 trillion.

      Or is this another figment of my imagination, as the Republicans are so quick to point out.

      This country was destroyed by Wall Street. Other countries will remember the experiment called free market capitalism and remember -- if you don't have tight government oversight and let the top 1% run everything -- it'll end in utter failure.       Jul 11 09:25 PM
    • LDK Solar: The Brightest Opportunity? [view article]
      volatility is the name of the game.

      When/if the plant is operational -- and going smoothly... this stock will turn around in a hurry and likely achieve those higher targets of 70 - 95/share. So there's no rush to buy. Shorts can control it down here. Eventually the chart will show that the shorts are losing control and investors can climb aboard for the big move.

      Naked shorting will never be enforced by the SEC. The ultra-rich control the U.S. and U.S. markets. Whenever you pit the wealthy few versus the welfare of the many -- the ultra-rich win every time -- it's the American way of life.

      Just wait until the shorts decide to pump this long. Then join the ultra-rich in the pump. No other way to win.       Jul 06 10:28 AM
    • Barron's Banks on $100 Oil [view article]
      "Demand destruction" -- people act like this is a given. Everyone can go to a restaurant now and see the empty tables. Or the empty malls. Easy to find cheaper sources of food. Easy to wear old clothes.

      I was just visiting New York for a week. Traffic was insane at almost every time of day except 10:30 at night and there were still plenty of cars driving around.

      Sorry, but there's no good substitute for the car. Not yet. Not enough to make an impact when the global population is growing fast and sucking up all the extra oil anyway. This world is far too entrenched in oil to impact the reality of Peak Oil. Sure it could go to 100 --- now what do you think traders will do if it dropped that low?

      I'd hoard all I could via futures before it went back up to 200/barrel. And so would any other rational investor. Thus -- the chances of a dip of that magnitude occurring, I think, is small.       Jun 22 08:17 PM
    • The Cheesecake Factory: Have Your Cake and Eat It Too [view article]
      Don't even know where to begin -- when oil is $5/gallon -- I can't imagine sitting down and paying 10 bucks for a piece of cake and coffee. 18x earnings? Try 10x and earnings will likely be lowered for years. No thanks. Jun 15 04:33 PM
    • The Great Oil Deception: Part Two [view article]
      I hear about ANWR as if it's the answer to all our problems. How come all the people who blame Democrats for not drilling in ANWR never seem to mention the fact that ANWR would provide, at most, a 3% increase in production, dropping our reliance on foreign imports from around 66% to 63%.

      Anyone who thinks drilling in ANWR will provide any kind of relief in oil prices is delusional.       Jun 15 10:19 AM
    • The Great Oil Deception: Part Two [view article]
      Jared Diamond's book "Collapse" covers this kind of phenomenon. Many civilizations -- on Easter Island, the Vikings in Greenland... and so forth faced complete collapse of their civilization due to destruction of key resources. The great Mesopotamian civilizations we read about in school were probably destroyed when nature ruined the rivers causing a decline in crops. Eastern Islanders cut down all the trees.

      This world relies on oil more than any other natural resources other than perhaps clean water-- which is also running out in many places. The world will either circumvent collapse by harnessing new renewable resources: wind, solar, tide -- or it won't.

      I am glad many people still think oil is in a "bubble". If everyone were aware of how close we are to catastrophe, I'm sure oil prices would triple. Unfortunately the U.S. has done almost nothing to promote new technologies --we've been stuck in a ridiculous war where our military burns insane amounts of fuel each day.

      The clock is ticking. This article makes me happy since I know the energy stocks I own are still inexpensive.       Jun 15 10:15 AM
    • Is Oil a Bubble? Part 3 [view article]
      solar / wind --

      These are great ideas but the answer probably lies within automobiles since 90% of the gas we used is for transportation. Wind and solar won't put a big dent in prices.

      Push CNG cars, plug ins... and really good battery-powered cars and then gas prices will drop dramatically.

      Seeing as how the last time Bush had anything to say about automobiles he was AGAINST raising fuel standards... well, every time I see someone blaming Democrats for balking at drilling -- I just laugh. Look at the value of the dollar / value of oil during his reign.

      These will be called the Lost Years for America.

      I am optimistic change will come, hopefully before things really get ugly.       Jun 08 08:41 PM
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