ari5000

Why I Am Long Active Power

RTK never delivered either... until they did.

Buying RTK at .50/share --- most traders would have said last week, was throwing your money away.

Now Twitterville loves this thing and are paying 3x more and projecting pie in the sky targets. Traders are happy to make a few grand... but it's the guys who loaded up at .50 and had a little patience that are laughing the most -- and undoubtedly unwinding into the momo crowd.

Why I Am Long Active Power

Mayascribe -- this is not a great place to discuss biotech as it's way too OT.

If you have Twitter, you can DM --- my user name is ari5000. biotech is a whole different game since the outcomes are very binary.

What I own at the moment: ENDP, MDF, SMTS (for a swing) SEPR, VVUS (riskier!) -- best idea is health IT but I don't own QSII, ATHN, MDRX as the stocks are very very expensive. (please crash!) Twitterville is getting increasing nervous about a huge pullback so expect increase in overall volatility based on informal observation.

Why I Am Long Active Power

John: 2 questions:

do you have a Twitter account. (you should)

can you comment on HPJ again -- looks very very cheap down here. I know you mentioned it once in an old column ('cautious'). Well, at current prices, wondering if perhaps it was worth another look.

Why I Am Long Active Power

The other sector I am heavily invested in is healthcare/drugs/ some biotech (mostly U.S. companies).

Why I Am Long Active Power

ACPW -- obviously management hasn't done much lately.

the only saving grace of the markets is that the markets always are and always will be forgiving to any company that can post profits tomorrow -- their past history will only allow early investors to get far cheaper shares.

China appears to embarking on a 50 year mission to improve / upgrade / increase power via solar / wind / fossil.

I think the main thing to take from John's articles is -- this SPACE is a winner, even if perhaps ACPW isn't the mouse that gets the cheese. So I just buy a little bit of everything - but concentrate in the right sector and you're already won half the battle.

Why I Am Long Active Power

ot: in general the market is ready to consolidate - perhaps drop 5 - 10% -- I think everything will selloff and provide an opportunity to buy in cheaper.

The markets rarely distinguish between good value and crap these days.

A $5 drop in oil prices will be enough to drop all alt. energy co's down to better prices. I'd say be patient here...

Why I Am Long Active Power

I think XIDE is going to consolidate in the 6s -- it now has a lot of street support and credibility -- but technically it is overbot and has no clear obvious support.

Chartwise -- ACPW looks very poised and ready to go - maintaining moving avg. support. Not a very well known or respected name... but neither was XIDE in the 3s.

Why I Am Long Active Power

i bot a little. I have prematurely let all my XIDE go after buying in around 3.65 when I first started reading some of your posts... So I'm looking for new ideas.

This is definitely a great space.

I would really appreciate your comments on a spec China (Battery) play CSGH.ob -- some investors I follow like this co. a lot but it's definitely speculative. Maybe you know a little bit more about their chances. I've looked at ABAT/CBAK as well (not interested).

Why I Am Long Active Power

I'd argue that ACPW is still not making money... but in today's market -- company's that don't make money, or even better, are insolvent, are the best stocks to own.

Perhaps if they can pile on 50 or 60 billion in toxic mortgage products it would double a lot faster.

Energy Storage on the Smart Grid: 99.45% Cheap and 0.55% Cool

The only thing I've ever read about $AMSC is that this company is near fraudulent. I believe they've never posted a yearly operating profit. Ever.

CEO makes lots of promises... book value is $5/share. Obviously someone agrees -- as 24% of AMSC float is shorted -- but the markets have never seemed to care too much.

My only advice is do some extra rigorous research with AMSC. I have no position.

Energy Storage on the Smart Grid: 99.45% Cheap and 0.55% Cool

I think you'll probably outperform most techical traders if you know what you're buying and understand the technology.

nasdaq is up 9 days in a row. It doesn't take much brainwork to realize 9 day runs are very rare and usually result in obscene short term profits and irrational exuberance among daytraders leading to a sudden plunge as the euphoria evaporates as soon as the first profit-taking session kicks in. I sold about 15% of my XIDE holdings over 4. That's all I'm willing to give up to gamble on a rebuy at lower prices.

9 day runs are truly rare -- though. Should be a pullback and it is very healthy and necessary to have a pullback or we will all be worse off. See housing bubble as evidence of what happens when markets go too far in one direction too fast.

Energy Storage on the Smart Grid: 99.45% Cheap and 0.55% Cool

technical analysis --- The antithesis of what you (research and knowledge)

BCON bounced off the 200 day MA, but is trapped by the 50 day MA. If the IPO does spark interest again in these names, BCON might run to 1.10 where it failed before.

XIDE for example, runs into its 200 day MA at 4.29 and will probably fail as it's a bit extended.

But all Technical Analysis is 1-part observation, 1-part voodoo horseshit -- so I like to mix it with research, or rather scour the 'nets for thoughtful commentary. For some reason, people who trade the charts tend to dismiss FA and value investors scoff at the chartists... seems to be no one I've seen that integrates the two.

In general, the markets are very extended here - and since all markets tend to be 100% correlated these days... I'm expecting a 5% pullback and I can rebuy XIDE, for example, at 3.80.

Wall Street loves a good story though. When 'batteries' makes the front page of the WSJ or ABC report -- all these names go up 10% together, regardless of value.

But I could be wrong... it appears there is very little that can push the markets down these days.

Energy Storage on the Smart Grid: 99.45% Cheap and 0.55% Cool

taking a little profits on XIDE today -- will get back in.

I'lll watch ZBB, BCON -- but I agree -- none of these unprofitable co's have a lock. They ride and fall on risk appetite... much better to use some TA when trading those. XIDE is just a core holding until 2010

Energy Storage on the Smart Grid: 99.45% Cheap and 0.55% Cool

If you're right about the macrotrend, some of these stocks have very big upside.... because most of the two year charts have been horrifying to long term investors.

Past is the past though. Very informative article. Batteries just don't have the same sexy street appeal as solar panels and wind farms. Might be slow to catch on with the herd.