How Credit Cards Can Predict The Future Of Phone Subsidies In China [View article]
China does subsidize the iphone. Except their model is slightly different than the US. The phone is free, but the customer pays their a portion of their 3-year payment upfront, I think like 1200 or something like that....
Apple Now Well Below Consensus Price Target [View article]
Hmmm, I am noticing quite a few stocks that are down since the time apple was at 600 or 650....
I would never tell someone to "buy all at once"... If those people purchase in increments of 3 or 5, then 600 was a great starting point, then even 650... But of course, keep some cash for when it goes down, then get a nice cost average for the trip back up if you still believe in the fundamentals of the company.. That's what I tell my relatives.....
Outlook For Apple's September Quarter And Additional Thoughts [View article]
law of large numbers has nothing to do with size of a company or its market share... It is a mathematical principle that states that as you increase your sample size, the likelihood that the actual average will move toward the theoretical average increases. For instance, the more times you roll two dice, the more likely your average roll will be 7... Do it 3 times and your average might not be 7... Do it 1 million times, and it is almost certain that your average will be 7.... That is the true "law of large numbers"....
I know everyone likes to use this term as a reason why apple's size somehow dictates its future sales... Future sales might be better dictated by current market share and apple has PLENTY of room to grow in that respect... please consider updating your thinking accordingly...
Likely Impact Of Apple Solving The Chinese iPad Problem [View article]
Even without sales in mainland china the iPad was supply constrained and probably will continue to be for the next several months, i.e., apple is selling as many iPads as it can make. No doubt that china will play a role at some point but I do not think the increase in stock price is simply due to 2-4 million potential sales of iPads... It seems more likely that the stock increase is simply a psychological barrier that was released off of investors minds ending this uncertainty. Couple that with the recent Samsung victories, and possibly a "flock to apple during turmoil" effect... I understand what you are saying and surely selling iPads in China will be good for apple, but what I simply saying is the impact will not be so immediate because they would sell as many iPads as they can make whether they had China sales or not... crazy huh...!!!
I am not sure what "brewer" means that they never report channel fill as sales. Once apple sells the phone to any company for their inventory, that is a sale for apple. This is very clear actually. So last quarter, apple filled inventory with 2.6 million phones. Those were sales. The point is, there will not be much channel fill this quarter because apple said they were in supply and demand "balance" And yes "Long AAPL", they did use the word "balanced" I have taken this from there most recent conference call transcript:
Time Cook:
"As you might recall, we ended with only 6 million units in the channel coming out of December because we were extremely backlogged. And this is on particularly -- this is on 4S specifically. Our target is to be between 4 million and 6 million. The addition of the 2.6 million allowed us to get within that range by the end of the quarter. And so we feel that we exited the quarter as supply and demand balanced. Because our execution, the ops team was so good, the vast majority of the supply-demand in the different countries was reached by the end of January. And so we had the mother of all Januarys with the -- with really getting out of the vast majority of the iPhone 4S backlog and launching China as well. And so it was an incredible, incredible start of the quarter for us."
Along the lines of apple_investor, the 35 million apple sold last quarter included about 3 million in channel fills and stated that the iphone is now in supply/demand balance.. Therefore, no channel fill for this quarters numbers... However, that still gives us a number above 30 which would still be a blow out....
Well written article... Im just curious, how many IPads do you think they need to sell to make this a "surprise" quarter..?? Assuming iPhones stay flat to modest decrease..?? Thanks...
Well, I mean its great that you write about this, but I think the point is that it is clear you are writing these articles to get clicks... I understand that, but you must know that it frustrates people when you write about stuff that you have no knowledge or insight on. Everyone knew about the VZ and ATT numbers HOURS before you wrote the article. You then decided to jump on the bandwagon and write a profound article on why apple will miss 3 hours before the earnings. You knew two things would happen: They would miss and you would feel great, OR they will kill and you will look like an idiot,.... BUT either way you would get the clicks right...?? That is what is driving people crazy.... Please stop writing about apple.... You clearly have no idea what you are doing.....
My Once-A-Year Article On Apple [View article]
"Yes the iPhone 5 was outshone by the Galaxy S and yes the iPad mini is missing expectations"...??
apple outsold galaxy and sold every mini it built...
How Credit Cards Can Predict The Future Of Phone Subsidies In China [View article]
Apple Now Well Below Consensus Price Target [View article]
I would never tell someone to "buy all at once"... If those people purchase in increments of 3 or 5, then 600 was a great starting point, then even 650... But of course, keep some cash for when it goes down, then get a nice cost average for the trip back up if you still believe in the fundamentals of the company.. That's what I tell my relatives.....
Outlook For Apple's September Quarter And Additional Thoughts [View article]
I know everyone likes to use this term as a reason why apple's size somehow dictates its future sales... Future sales might be better dictated by current market share and apple has PLENTY of room to grow in that respect... please consider updating your thinking accordingly...
Likely Impact Of Apple Solving The Chinese iPad Problem [View article]
The Myth Of iPhone Seasonality [View article]
Time Cook:
"As you might recall, we ended with only 6 million units in the channel coming out of December because we were extremely backlogged. And this is on particularly -- this is on 4S specifically. Our target is to be between 4 million and 6 million. The addition of the 2.6 million allowed us to get within that range by the end of the quarter. And so we feel that we exited the quarter as supply and demand balanced. Because our execution, the ops team was so good, the vast majority of the supply-demand in the different countries was reached by the end of January. And so we had the mother of all Januarys with the -- with really getting out of the vast majority of the iPhone 4S backlog and launching China as well. And so it was an incredible, incredible start of the quarter for us."
The Myth Of iPhone Seasonality [View article]
The Key To Apple's Undervaluation And Amazon's Overvaluation [View article]
Apple: Some Cause For Concern? [View article]
Yes, I Got Apple Wrong [View instapost]
Apple Likely To Miss Earnings Estimates [View article]
Chipotle Mexican Grill: The Exuberance Is Now Beyond Irrational [View article]
Chipotle Mexican Grill: The Exuberance Is Now Beyond Irrational [View article]
Chipotle Mexican Grill: The Exuberance Is Now Beyond Irrational [View article]
http://bit.ly/HFWK7c
Chipotle Mexican Grill: The Exuberance Is Now Beyond Irrational [View article]