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Michael123a

Michael123a
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  • Update: American Capital Mortgage Does Not Cut Its Dividend [View article]
    Read this week's Barron's on interest rate futures. It is enlightening. I realize the Fed wants a real reason to raise rates, so they have a catalyst to give back in the event of another econ. down draft. The only thing that increasing rates would do in the first half of 2015 is create uncertainty, but actual yields on treasuries will probably stay flat as the rest of the world wants to purchase US sovereign debt. Inflation, boosted by lower oil and gasoline prices will be suppressed even more than in 2014. Wage inflation isn't. Black Swans like war, or Ebola break outs cannot be ruled out, but there are no crystal balls for those. Only steel balls.
    Dec 20, 2014. 04:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: The Old Squeeze Play Could Hurt This Stock [View article]
    RS:

    Mtge rates on 30 year fixed are now at the lowest point for 2014. So i am concerned about CPR and yield spread for MReits going forward. The Fed may raise rates in 2015, which I grant is a gaining possibility. Yet that would induce investors outside the US to take more US securities which would once again drive down yields. Employment percentages have little significance vis a vis the quality and salary rates this so called improvement in employment provides, and the fact that the numbers are rigged by not including those who have given up seeking employment. This is an economy of contra-indicators in my opinion, where no clear trend is imminent. Some catalyst may be out there to break this log jam, but I am in the dark what it might be.
    Dec 18, 2014. 01:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dark Side To Falling Oil Prices [View article]
    Cheap oil, Russian brides, and rot gut vodka. What a scenario. Ukraine brides have already saturated the market. Good luck Russia!!. Oil is a commodity, and like any other from lead to steel, there are upswings and down. Ok, so who is bold enough to call the bottom? And when will it happen? I think the Saudi's want to tank Iran is a major motivation. Yeah and the shale dudes as well. Who is going to blink first??
    Dec 4, 2014. 09:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing American Capital Agency Corp.'s BV, Dividend, Risk, And Valuation To Several mREIT Peers [View article]
    Thank you Scott for the lucid explanation of the leverge to hedge ratio NYMT uses. Makes very good sense and increases my level of confidence. You are also correct about the BV comparisons, in my opinion. I always read your articles with great care.

    Regards,

    Michael
    Dec 4, 2014. 01:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing American Capital Agency Corp.'s BV, Dividend, Risk, And Valuation To Several mREIT Peers [View article]
    Thank you Scott: Your analysis has given me a better understanding of the leverage to hedging issue, and I think your BV analysis is on target. I really appreciate your articles and read them with great care.

    Michael
    Dec 4, 2014. 01:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing American Capital Agency Corp.'s BV, Dividend, Risk, And Valuation To Several mREIT Peers [View article]
    Scott:

    Maybe I am not as astute as most, but when I compare the leverage of NYMT. and the hedging strategy, I become very concerned. I am long NYMT but not in a large way, and I am continually attempting to assess increasing my position. Are you comfortable with this leverage to hedging strategy that NYMT uses? The BV to price also gives me concern when the majority of MReits are selling below BV. What in your opinion makes NYMT sell at a premium?
    Dec 2, 2014. 09:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ellington Financial: A Decent Quarter For This 14% Yielder [View article]
    I am in total agreement with Mr. McCammon. Although the leverage hovers around 2x, I would like to see some transparency on the portfolio and the average rate of return for these various investments. Otherwise, I remain long EFC and thinking of adding.
    Nov 6, 2014. 04:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is What Best-In-Breed Looks Like [View article]
    NYMT is leveaged at about 11:1 with the majority of the debt being CLO's. I realize this may be a multi family unit type of debt instrument, but I am not exactly sure. Anyone have an idea about the nature of such debt?

    Thanks
    Sep 16, 2014. 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market Provides Some Early Fall Color For REIT Investors [View article]
    Several comments in this thread have referred to the Fed raising rates on the low end of the curve. Long Treasuries and bonds may rise in sympathy as a response, and thus the Chinese, Europeans and others with excess cash will buy the mid to long term govt and AAA's and AA's to drive down yields once again. The Fed cannot push rates up to a point they bring the economy back into recession. For what reason? The long awaited expectation of rising rates (2013) now expected to be mid 2015 is not so clear. You cannot induce inflation by deflating the economy which a significant increase in rates would do. As Barron's said this week, the Fed rate increase, if any, cannot achieve escape velocity without out destroying the vessel. Even good old BAC is promoting interest free credit card backed cash advances with a drop dead date of 2016, when the world ends, I suppose.
    Sep 13, 2014. 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is What Best-In-Breed Looks Like [View article]
    Long NYMT as well for all the reasons mentioned in the article and comments. Add more? When you look at the leverage factor, am I the only one that gets a little bit dizzy, and is this the one thing holding back the share price in a rather tight range, or other factors other than the tired old platitudes about Mreits? Otherwise, looking at adding more, so any comments about how you folks look at the leverage, it would be appreciated. Thanks.
    Sep 11, 2014. 08:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: Insiders Are Taking Advantage Of The Buying Opportunity In This 13% Yielder [View article]
    Any comments on PSEC's recent issuance of shelf debt, etc, circa $5B? If they are having difficulty finding deals to finance, why the issuance of so much commercial paper etc? Pay down debt higher priced debt, maybe?
    Sep 8, 2014. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Finance: 10 Reasons Why This Double-Digit Yielding Stock Is A Buy [View article]
    PNNT and MAIN should be added for comparison, and consideration for swaps in the event of the all the foreboding about rising rates. These may prove to be "safety nets" in the event something unforeseen.
    Sep 8, 2014. 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oaktree Bets Against The U.S. Economy; Investors Might Bet Against Oaktree [View article]
    That is a valid question. Oak is not as transparent as other equity based companies with its multitude of funds of all kinds. It is quite like looking at the inner workings of a swiss made watch, and without taking it all apart, and putting the parts back together, correctly, then is always an analysts' challenge. I get the sense that the OAK managers may be a bit deferential toward unit holders as they would not understand the nuances of their investments. Compounded by announcements of and reductions of reduced distributions, while raising significant capital gives me concern.
    Sep 5, 2014. 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oaktree Bets Against The U.S. Economy; Investors Might Bet Against Oaktree [View article]
    Oak is basically a private equity partnership, with unit holders as investors. Here are some things that concern me, and I do consider OAK as a potential holding, and I have held it up to June 2014. My reasons for sale are that the unit price increased from the fall of 2013 until late spring 2014 gradually. Why the unit price decreased from $62 to $48 in early June, with a rather precipitous manner I still do not understand. Several factors which I am just guessing: reduced speculation, concern about competition over distressed debt, and Einhorn unloading his entire positon. As a side note, Einhorn had a very large OAK holding, and touted Howard Marks. Why Einhorn sold this position, I do not know. It could be another reason for the downdraft in late Spring 2014. I sold out at $55. I still received the dist, as I was in the ex-dist. period, so that offset some of it. As the author indicated, OAK raises funding either through secondaries or various debt offerings. AUM is $84 Billion prior to this lasted debt offering? The competition for distressed securities remains severe, and OAK and Blackstone seemed to have moved off shore for opportunities.

    OAK has a very honorable reputation. Although, the unit holders seem to be a secondary concern, in my opinion. The dist. has become less in both the May and August pay outs. The AUM has increased rather precipitously within the last nine months. Each time the explanation is that it is to parlay into "more profitable investments." The dist. amount keeps decreasing?

    Additionally, the unit price has been in a tight trading range since the late spring drop, as if the market is indicating some trepidation for buying OAK. How long will OAK be "dead money?" An increase in the dist. rate to unit holders could be a catalyst? Who knows?

    Any comments other than the hero worship of Marks, Buffet and others are welcome. Marks by the way wrote an excellent commentary on risk analysis in today's Barron's. It is 15 pages, and is rather involved, but well worth the time.
    Sep 4, 2014. 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing Annaly Capital Management's BV, Dividend, Risk, And Valuation To Several mREIT Peers - Part 1 [View article]
    Will you share your views on interest rate trends? Most folks are anticipating rises in the present Fed Funds Rate, and other mitigating factors, but when you add macro event issues, salary growth or lack of it, and continued automation, and global competition, mortgage interest rates and spreads, the fed debt, and several other minor reasons, I am not so sure.
    As an MReit holder, AGNC, MTGE, along with AI and EFC which are not in your scope, I have been scouting interest rate behavior for obvious reasons. Thank you.
    Sep 3, 2014. 09:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
117 Comments
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