Seeking Alpha
  • Chines33
    Anyone remember what happened last year when the likes of EMR CAT etc warned on China around this exact time?
    5/1/12
    Reply (40)
    • Josh Krause: Puppies and Unicorns rained from the heavens?
      5/1/12
    • Chines33: I was thinking more the move from 1365 to 1100 but that works
      5/1/12
    • TruffelPig: That was not this time around. And it was because of US downgrade.....man Chines
      5/1/12
    • TruffelPig: And this year CAT did not warn in China
      5/1/12
    • Chines33: Truffely yes they did. Also look at CAT's may chart from last year...We got the June short covering rallying been then followed May trend
      5/1/12
    • Chines33: of getting hammered. Industrials and oils were getting hammered far before debt downgrade. Then we short cover rallied before bottom drop.
      5/1/12
    • juststarted: sell in may and go away
      5/1/12
    • TruffelPig: I disagree.
      5/1/12
    • Chines33: ETN CAT EMR(which has a broad reach in many businesses in china) all have warned on a slowdown their and more substantial one in EU.
      5/1/12
    • Chines33: Much like last years.
      5/1/12
    • Chines33: You can't disagree on the chart that happened...and it happened right after CAT's warning last year. I know cuz I unloaded my industrials.
      5/1/12
    • TruffelPig: http://reut.rs/KpgOp1
      5/1/12
    • TruffelPig: Warning????
      5/1/12
    • Chines33: Also another huge industrial CMI said same thing today about China
      5/1/12
    • Chines33: http://bit.ly/JQVYE2
      5/1/12
    • juststarted: sold cat 4/29/11 @115.92
      5/1/12
    • Chines33: Toward bottom of page 2 CAT talks about significant China shortfall. Much like ETN and EMR and CMI today did...
      5/1/12
    • Chines33: Sure it says other countries offset it, but we all know EU is going down more and other countries don't matter to them near as much as China
      5/1/12
    • Chines33: Long term CAT is fine, but at these levels A: I'd rather own JOY. B: if we start to see a major slowdown like last year both could fall $20
      5/1/12
    • Chines33: With ease..
      5/1/12
    • Chines33: Hard to see a near term catalyst to buy CAT unless it falls to low 90's or so.
      5/1/12
    • juststarted: went to $70 last year ( did not buy back....of course)
      5/1/12
    • shaker33: Chines is spot on. Proceed with caution. Buy at these levels at your own peril.
      5/1/12
    • Chines33: Yep I remember that I chose to buy CMI at 80 rather than CAT at 70 at that time.
      5/1/12
    • TruffelPig: I wouldn't buy CAT or CMI - period. Not my type of companies. Eaton perhaps.
      5/1/12
    • TruffelPig: Anyhow, I agree that companies have gotten more expensive but there are still bargains out there. It is stock picking time.
      5/1/12
    • Chines33: I like ETN a lot. I have been a buyer around 44-46. If it gets there I may nibble with the idea that it could go down further.
      5/1/12
    • Chines33: 44 would be hard to pass up not getting a starter position with that yield.
      5/1/12
    • Chines33: Right now essentially all I own are some conviction large cap tech's(not even full positions) and trading in and out of others..
      5/1/12
    • Chines33: Was in a few industrials, oils and consumer dis but have unloaded them into this mini run up after buying them on the down swoop
      5/1/12
    • Chines33: Several I will look to re enter just not yet.
      5/1/12
    • TruffelPig: AA is still a bargain. Some Gold miners are dirt cheap (GG). Some miners are dirt cheap SCCO, VALE
      5/1/12
    • TruffelPig: I just do not like miners - lol- except some junior Gold ones long-term
      5/1/12
    • Chines33: They are cheap for a reason. I think tech, oils, industrials have the most value here. Just can't buy last 2 yet till more clarity.
      5/1/12
    • Clayton Rulli: There's a reason why VALE is cheap. Ore demand could be dropping, plus Govnmt ousted CEO last year...VALE is to Brazil like GM is to USA.
      5/1/12
    • Clayton Rulli: Government has dirty hands all up in it
      5/1/12
    • TruffelPig: Agree, didn't like that either.
      5/1/12
    • Youngone91: i haven't seen anything to suggest that the deflate inflate cycle is over
      5/1/12
    • Youngone91: the closer VXX is to 14 the more hesitant you should be to buy. period. These past 4 years have been chaacterized by heightened volatility
      5/1/12
    • Youngone91: chinas government is rich. I'm inclined to believe that stimulus in a country without a huge debt overhang is warranted in select situations
      5/1/12