RossQ

23 Comments

    • Potash Corp., Agrium Caught in Industry-Wide Downturn [view article]
      David you keep missing the point, any rally in the commodities is sold off due to rising dollar, Did you miss the ECB statement today? Dollar is now above its 200dma and dollar is up big agaisnt other currencies. Even though i'm still long coomodity plays I fear the rally is over, even the debacle at AIG, and various other financials trigger a relocation of funds into the better growth stories as you mentioned above. This is a bad sign as I have been posting for days, Great news , Great earnings big correction, smslls like a top, PE contraction phase. Raising cash again today! Aug 07 01:59 PM
    • Potash Corp., Agrium Caught in Industry-Wide Downturn [view article]
      Dollar break out killing oil and the rest of commodities Aug 06 11:45 AM
    • Potash Corp., Agrium Caught in Industry-Wide Downturn [view article]
      user 195550: I agree 100%, I refer you to my earlier post Aug 06 10:15 AM
    • Potash Corp., Agrium Caught in Industry-Wide Downturn [view article]
      I think you are all missing the point. Hedge Funds were in a basket of stocks that are ini the Ag, Metals, Mining, oil and gas exploration and Services while the financials, tech, housing and retail were beat down like a pauper trying to steal a scone in the streets of england on a rainy cold day. They have just pulled the money out after the Fed bail out to see if this is the fifth bottom in the credit melt down, read Doug Kass and Meridth Whitney who were the only people on Wall Street that wrote about this mess (and Ron Insana) Aug 06 09:04 AM
    • Potash Corp., Agrium Caught in Industry-Wide Downturn [view article]
      Correction: "I am with Meridith Whitney and Ken Heebner", bearish housing and financials and bullish AG, Steel, Oil etc Aug 06 07:50 AM
    • Potash Corp., Agrium Caught in Industry-Wide Downturn [view article]
      You are right on about the reason for the decline in the stock of all the O&G, Coals, Steels its almost as if no one believes the outlook the CEO's of these companies talked about in their conference calls, I have listened to those calls and I found little reason for this selloff but one has to accept it and not keep blinders on. I have sold a few positions in commodities to lessen the pain as I dont know what the future hold. Its almost as painful as the internet bubble bursting.

      One thing to notice though is that while the dow and s&p were down day after day from march to end of june these stocks were riding high so there was already a disconnect from the market averages, that divergence for me holds no importance.

      The fast money was hiding in these stocks waiting for the bottom in Financials and the other undesirables. No they are long stocks that are bleeding money and have bad balance sheets and forsaking the good.

      I am with Meridith Whitney and Ken Heebner, there is more pain ahead for the groups I like but when the financial stocks, and housing tech fall from favor hedge funds will find their way back (This rally isnt real, S&P has topped out at 1280 range three times in a month, either it will break upwards or breakdown and my guess is down because of the fundementals).

      People think its good for the market if OIL goes down, but thats not true, what that will indicate is that there is less demand for oil and other commodities. This would signal a global slow down which is bad for your multinationals who are doing so great (tounge and cheek due to weak dollar). That brings me to my final point $DXY is at the big resistence level, its no coincidence that commodities i.e. OIL are at major support levels, we will see what gives.


      Long SKF, SRS, SDS, QID and and oil, coal, Ag, steels       Aug 06 07:47 AM
    • Potash Corp: Dynamics of Supply and Demand Drive Earnings Growth [view article]
      There is obviously some really bad news coming, look at the volume of shares the last few days, MOS and AGU were actually up today and POT went all the way down to 167. There was bad news for Cargil and ADM today but I didnt see anything specific for Agriculture. 24 million shares traded today. I think the strike is factored in already into this price, old news, something around the corner? :( Aug 05 05:04 PM
    • Potash Corp: Dynamics of Supply and Demand Drive Earnings Growth [view article]
      Looking at this Authors bio, she made a nice call on GILD in July at an important low and during heavy selling, the stock is up big since. I Hope she is right on this one too. May have to hold on to POT and lighten up elsewhere Aug 05 12:38 PM
    • Potash Corp: Dynamics of Supply and Demand Drive Earnings Growth [view article]
      David I admire you enthusiasm, but commodites have fallen off a cliff, and i don't just mean CLF. AG coals metals etc were down 10 % plus yesterday and someone is unloading on POT today look at the volume everytime it gets bid up its sold.

      I really have no real knowledge of whats going on but my observations make me very bearish for the first time this year. I have given up almost 75% of 40% gain YTD since July, and am going to sell half of everything today, cause I can't take the pain.

      Good Luck       Aug 05 11:36 AM
    • Potash Corp: Dynamics of Supply and Demand Drive Earnings Growth [view article]
      Great Article, must have done a lot of work on it but in the near term it doesnt matter, IMHO, Lower oil prices = lower demand for oil. Lower demand = lower consumer ability to pay high prices = global slowdown = less demand for commodities = this sharp selloff. PERIOD.

      When the hedge funds decide to change this thesis

      things will change, who knows when that will happen, my guess end of August, why thats when Nat Gas usually rallies, I know that makes no sense.

      But, look at the charts, UNG fell off a cliff and everything followed COAL, Metals, Ag, Oil, Steel, even though some benefit from the fall of others.

      I know this makes no sense, but everyday I watch my portfolio bleed: Long oil, Ag, Steel and Coal.

      Aug 05 10:57 AM
    • Buy, Sell or Hold: What to Do with Potash Corp.? [view article]
      lower oil prices = lower demand for oil. Lower demand = lower consumer ability to pay high prices = global slowdown = less demand for commodities = this sharp selloff. PERIOD

      When the hedge funds decide to change this thesis

      things will change, who knows when that will happen, my guess end of August, why thats when Nat Gas usually rallies, I know that makes no sense.

      But, look at the charts, UNG fell off a cliff and everything followed COAL, Metals, Ag, Oil, Steel, even though some benefit from the fall of others.

      I know this makes no sense, but everyday I watch my portfolio bleed: Long oil, Ag, Steel and Coal       Aug 05 10:50 AM
    • Ten Reasons Why I'm Waiting to Buy PotashCorp [view article]
      Used Vectorvest since 02 and love the software. I would just caution you as to the valuations or RV price. A lot of stocks like ECA, PBR and POT, RIMM, and ISRG (that were real winners) appeared overvalued by VST metrics. I missed early moves in those particular stocks. I know use growth to PE ratio instead of RV now, as along as Price remains less that 2x the growth rate I hold the stock. Jul 27 12:58 PM
    • PotashCorp: UBS Analyst Cautious Despite Record Quarter [view article]
      Ah Have you seen the coal and steel and ag charts. Its already happening. Despite record profits the stocks have been sold in tremendous volume. There are lots of theories as to why, #1. Hedge funds do this rotation when a trade get too crowded. For example the banks and financials were so heavily shorted they started taking their money out of commodities and started pushing the short side on banks and financials, now they are pushing up the banks and homebuilders, this is a head fake. Thursday there was a big shift IMO, especially from 9:30 to 11am huge sector rotation, massive volume. Banks and Financials sold off and continued but with less vol on Friday. Commodities stabilized. See 5 day charts of KOL, SLX, MOO, UYM, XME etc and check out SRS, SKF, UYG. I am mostly short banks and long commod's and have an itchy trigger finger and my thinking can change with developments in the charts.

      I am currently going and studying days where there was sector rotation so I can get a better tell. So far i have noticed there is an increase in price fluctuation, irratic stock behavior without news. and failure to make new highs on a stair step climb. In reverse I have noticed that stocks going down exhibit the inverse but simialr behavior, just turn the charts upside down.

      Following this I got out of DUG as it failed twice at 38 to hold its 200dma (even on good volume), result Bullish on DIG (oil stocks). Oil services not so much yet.

      Also the Financials ETF failed to take out its 50dma on two attemps on very good volume. Also SKF held its 200dma in the selloff and didnt need to retest. Result was that I added to my short financial list. Until I see something different in the charts I am not bullish on the Banks and Financials. Bullish oil stocks not OIL (USO), that chart sticks, bearish Nat Gas, scared to death but long KOL, MOO, UYM, SLX, GLD, SLV.       Jul 27 12:04 PM
    • Is the Structural Bear Market Nearing Its End? [view article]
      Tight Stops that is Jul 27 11:34 AM
    • Is the Structural Bear Market Nearing Its End? [view article]
      the short side of the market is very crowded.

      More than $1.4 trillion of worldwide equities, approximately 2.8%, is on loan... about one-third higher than at the start of 2007. And most of that is going to short sellers.

      Short selling on the New York Stock Exchange rose to 4.6% last month, the highest since at least 1931.

      It seems inevitable we're going to have a big rally, just to shake out the weak hands from the short side.

      ** From Growth Stock Wire **


      Me i'm 70% short and 30% long, and way too comfortable. Thight Stops anyone.       Jul 27 11:33 AM
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