RossQ's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/91035/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/89374-potash-corp-agrium-caught-in-industry-wide-downturn?source=feed#comment-225327 225327 Thu, 07 Aug 2008 13:59:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89374-potash-corp-agrium-caught-in-industry-wide-downturn?source=feed#comment-224074 224074 Wed, 06 Aug 2008 11:45:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89374-potash-corp-agrium-caught-in-industry-wide-downturn?source=feed#comment-223982 223982 Wed, 06 Aug 2008 10:15:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89374-potash-corp-agrium-caught-in-industry-wide-downturn?source=feed#comment-223876 223876 Wed, 06 Aug 2008 09:04:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89374-potash-corp-agrium-caught-in-industry-wide-downturn?source=feed#comment-223781 223781 Wed, 06 Aug 2008 07:50:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89374-potash-corp-agrium-caught-in-industry-wide-downturn?source=feed#comment-223779 223779
One thing to notice though is that while the dow and s&p were down day after day from march to end of june these stocks were riding high so there was already a disconnect from the market averages, that divergence for me holds no importance.

The fast money was hiding in these stocks waiting for the bottom in Financials and the other undesirables. No they are long stocks that are bleeding money and have bad balance sheets and forsaking the good.

I am with Meridith Whitney and Ken Heebner, there is more pain ahead for the groups I like but when the financial stocks, and housing tech fall from favor hedge funds will find their way back (This rally isnt real, S&P has topped out at 1280 range three times in a month, either it will break upwards or breakdown and my guess is down because of the fundementals).

People think its good for the market if OIL goes down, but thats not true, what that will indicate is that there is less demand for oil and other commodities. This would signal a global slow down which is bad for your multinationals who are doing so great (tounge and cheek due to weak dollar). That brings me to my final point $DXY is at the big resistence level, its no coincidence that commodities i.e. OIL are at major support levels, we will see what gives.


Long SKF, SRS, SDS, QID and and oil, coal, Ag, steels ]]> Wed, 06 Aug 2008 07:47:44 -0400
One thing to notice though is that while the dow and s&p were down day after day from march to end of june these stocks were riding high so there was already a disconnect from the market averages, that divergence for me holds no importance.

The fast money was hiding in these stocks waiting for the bottom in Financials and the other undesirables. No they are long stocks that are bleeding money and have bad balance sheets and forsaking the good.

I am with Meridith Whitney and Ken Heebner, there is more pain ahead for the groups I like but when the financial stocks, and housing tech fall from favor hedge funds will find their way back (This rally isnt real, S&P has topped out at 1280 range three times in a month, either it will break upwards or breakdown and my guess is down because of the fundementals).

People think its good for the market if OIL goes down, but thats not true, what that will indicate is that there is less demand for oil and other commodities. This would signal a global slow down which is bad for your multinationals who are doing so great (tounge and cheek due to weak dollar). That brings me to my final point $DXY is at the big resistence level, its no coincidence that commodities i.e. OIL are at major support levels, we will see what gives.


Long SKF, SRS, SDS, QID and and oil, coal, Ag, steels ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89127-potash-corp-dynamics-of-supply-and-demand-drive-earnings-growth?source=feed#comment-223471 223471 Tue, 05 Aug 2008 17:04:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89127-potash-corp-dynamics-of-supply-and-demand-drive-earnings-growth?source=feed#comment-223261 223261 Tue, 05 Aug 2008 12:38:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89127-potash-corp-dynamics-of-supply-and-demand-drive-earnings-growth?source=feed#comment-223199 223199
I really have no real knowledge of whats going on but my observations make me very bearish for the first time this year. I have given up almost 75% of 40% gain YTD since July, and am going to sell half of everything today, cause I can't take the pain.

Good Luck]]> Tue, 05 Aug 2008 11:36:05 -0400
I really have no real knowledge of whats going on but my observations make me very bearish for the first time this year. I have given up almost 75% of 40% gain YTD since July, and am going to sell half of everything today, cause I can't take the pain.

Good Luck]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89127-potash-corp-dynamics-of-supply-and-demand-drive-earnings-growth?source=feed#comment-223151 223151
When the hedge funds decide to change this thesis

things will change, who knows when that will happen, my guess end of August, why thats when Nat Gas usually rallies, I know that makes no sense.

But, look at the charts, UNG fell off a cliff and everything followed COAL, Metals, Ag, Oil, Steel, even though some benefit from the fall of others.

I know this makes no sense, but everyday I watch my portfolio bleed: Long oil, Ag, Steel and Coal.

]]> Tue, 05 Aug 2008 10:57:27 -0400
When the hedge funds decide to change this thesis

things will change, who knows when that will happen, my guess end of August, why thats when Nat Gas usually rallies, I know that makes no sense.

But, look at the charts, UNG fell off a cliff and everything followed COAL, Metals, Ag, Oil, Steel, even though some benefit from the fall of others.

I know this makes no sense, but everyday I watch my portfolio bleed: Long oil, Ag, Steel and Coal.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88835-buy-sell-or-hold-what-to-do-with-potash-corp?source=feed#comment-223145 223145
When the hedge funds decide to change this thesis

things will change, who knows when that will happen, my guess end of August, why thats when Nat Gas usually rallies, I know that makes no sense.

But, look at the charts, UNG fell off a cliff and everything followed COAL, Metals, Ag, Oil, Steel, even though some benefit from the fall of others.

I know this makes no sense, but everyday I watch my portfolio bleed: Long oil, Ag, Steel and Coal]]> Tue, 05 Aug 2008 10:50:26 -0400
When the hedge funds decide to change this thesis

things will change, who knows when that will happen, my guess end of August, why thats when Nat Gas usually rallies, I know that makes no sense.

But, look at the charts, UNG fell off a cliff and everything followed COAL, Metals, Ag, Oil, Steel, even though some benefit from the fall of others.

I know this makes no sense, but everyday I watch my portfolio bleed: Long oil, Ag, Steel and Coal]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87258-ten-reasons-why-i-m-waiting-to-buy-potashcorp?source=feed#comment-215721 215721 Sun, 27 Jul 2008 12:58:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/87194-potashcorp-ubs-analyst-cautious-despite-record-quarter?source=feed#comment-215676 215676
I am currently going and studying days where there was sector rotation so I can get a better tell. So far i have noticed there is an increase in price fluctuation, irratic stock behavior without news. and failure to make new highs on a stair step climb. In reverse I have noticed that stocks going down exhibit the inverse but simialr behavior, just turn the charts upside down.

Following this I got out of DUG as it failed twice at 38 to hold its 200dma (even on good volume), result Bullish on DIG (oil stocks). Oil services not so much yet.

Also the Financials ETF failed to take out its 50dma on two attemps on very good volume. Also SKF held its 200dma in the selloff and didnt need to retest. Result was that I added to my short financial list. Until I see something different in the charts I am not bullish on the Banks and Financials. Bullish oil stocks not OIL (USO), that chart sticks, bearish Nat Gas, scared to death but long KOL, MOO, UYM, SLX, GLD, SLV.]]> Sun, 27 Jul 2008 12:04:41 -0400
I am currently going and studying days where there was sector rotation so I can get a better tell. So far i have noticed there is an increase in price fluctuation, irratic stock behavior without news. and failure to make new highs on a stair step climb. In reverse I have noticed that stocks going down exhibit the inverse but simialr behavior, just turn the charts upside down.

Following this I got out of DUG as it failed twice at 38 to hold its 200dma (even on good volume), result Bullish on DIG (oil stocks). Oil services not so much yet.

Also the Financials ETF failed to take out its 50dma on two attemps on very good volume. Also SKF held its 200dma in the selloff and didnt need to retest. Result was that I added to my short financial list. Until I see something different in the charts I am not bullish on the Banks and Financials. Bullish oil stocks not OIL (USO), that chart sticks, bearish Nat Gas, scared to death but long KOL, MOO, UYM, SLX, GLD, SLV.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87219-is-the-structural-bear-market-nearing-its-end?source=feed#comment-215642 215642 Sun, 27 Jul 2008 11:34:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/87219-is-the-structural-bear-market-nearing-its-end?source=feed#comment-215641 215641
More than $1.4 trillion of worldwide equities, approximately 2.8%, is on loan... about one-third higher than at the start of 2007. And most of that is going to short sellers.

Short selling on the New York Stock Exchange rose to 4.6% last month, the highest since at least 1931.

It seems inevitable we're going to have a big rally, just to shake out the weak hands from the short side.

** From Growth Stock Wire **


Me i'm 70% short and 30% long, and way too comfortable. Thight Stops anyone.]]> Sun, 27 Jul 2008 11:33:27 -0400
More than $1.4 trillion of worldwide equities, approximately 2.8%, is on loan... about one-third higher than at the start of 2007. And most of that is going to short sellers.

Short selling on the New York Stock Exchange rose to 4.6% last month, the highest since at least 1931.

It seems inevitable we're going to have a big rally, just to shake out the weak hands from the short side.

** From Growth Stock Wire **


Me i'm 70% short and 30% long, and way too comfortable. Thight Stops anyone.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87258-ten-reasons-why-i-m-waiting-to-buy-potashcorp?source=feed#comment-215606 215606 Sun, 27 Jul 2008 11:09:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/87258-ten-reasons-why-i-m-waiting-to-buy-potashcorp?source=feed#comment-215595 215595 Sun, 27 Jul 2008 11:07:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/87047-rbc-defends-potash-corp-s-valuation-200-pot?source=feed#comment-214894 214894 Fri, 25 Jul 2008 23:22:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/87047-rbc-defends-potash-corp-s-valuation-200-pot?source=feed#comment-214672 214672
I have been in Potash stock since 2003 and all along, I have heard countless arguments against this stock being overvalued , oh, I love haters. One day they will be right, that day is not today. As for this Sh$t it all smelling like ro$e$ for now. ]]> Fri, 25 Jul 2008 15:49:57 -0400
I have been in Potash stock since 2003 and all along, I have heard countless arguments against this stock being overvalued , oh, I love haters. One day they will be right, that day is not today. As for this Sh$t it all smelling like ro$e$ for now. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87047-rbc-defends-potash-corp-s-valuation-200-pot?source=feed#comment-214667 214667 Fri, 25 Jul 2008 15:47:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84411-the-brightest-stars-in-the-commodities-boom-part-two?source=feed#comment-202765 202765
On Jul 10 10:38 AM crimfunk wrote:

> Why would you not believe that he added James River Coal Company
> (JRCC) at $5.00 and sold for a huge profits? His other post called
> the coal bubble spot on. K-Fine on fast money also called the s/t
> coal bubble.]]> Fri, 11 Jul 2008 06:29:03 -0400
On Jul 10 10:38 AM crimfunk wrote:

> Why would you not believe that he added James River Coal Company
> (JRCC) at $5.00 and sold for a huge profits? His other post called
> the coal bubble spot on. K-Fine on fast money also called the s/t
> coal bubble.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84411-the-brightest-stars-in-the-commodities-boom-part-two?source=feed#comment-202035 202035 Thu, 10 Jul 2008 07:25:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/43523-friday-s-action-was-a-much-needed-dose-of-reality?source=feed#comment-92902 92902
Of course, there are always people who are down on the market at any given time. bears base their negative views on problems like the housing slump, high energy prices, a rapidly maninfesting credit crunch, etc. When didnt bears make their case on factors like these, in recent years.


Sure they are right to be bearish because the housing market is weak. But they were bearish when the housing market was strong (too strong, bubble!). They could be bearish because energy prices are high. But they were bearish when energy prices were lower, the market was to fall apart at 50, 60, 70, 78, dollar oil. They could be bearish because credit is tighter. But they was bearish when credit was easier.

So bears make a different argument, every time, its like calling for rain everyday ofcourse one of those days youd be quite the prognosticator.

It’s not that they have been dead wrong on the market the last 20 years, the world’s greatest period of economic prosperity, we've had tech bubble 87, 90, 98, tech bubble. Now there are talking about, The growth in U.S. economic power and personal prosperity is a Fed-induced bubble of gigantic proportions.


Everyone can have their own opinions, but you can't manufacture facts.


U.S. GDP Growth the past two decades is real.

Net wealth in the U.S. – the total value of all assets, including stocks, bonds, bank accounts, houses and retirement funds, after subtracting debt – is approximately $54 trillion today. That's $16 trillion higher than it was four years ago. And it's nearly 10 times what total net worth was in the U.S. in 1980. American wealth is real and rising.

History shows that owning stocks, is the best route to financial independence. Dr. Jeremy Siegel, a professor at the prestigious Wharton School and author of “Stocks for the Long Run,” has tallied the return of T-bills, bonds, stocks and gold over the past couple hundred years. According to Siegel, during the period above, the same dollar invested in T-bills turned into $2,830. A dollar invested in bonds turned into $6,920. And a dollar invested in stocks turned into more than $3 million.

According to Jeremy Siegel, during the period above, the same dollar invested in T-bills turned into $2,830. A dollar invested in bonds turned into $6,920. And a dollar invested in stocks – drum roll, please – turned into more than $3 million.

In short, owning a portfolio of profitable businesses has historically given a higher return than cash, bonds or gold over the long term.

I recently read, more than two-thirds of the companies in the S&P 500 have now reported earnings. And despite a one-week, 4.9% selloff of the S&P 500 in July, “profit growth stands at more than twice the average of analysts' forecasts heading into this earnings season,” this according to Reuters.

I am a Technician (as a trader) and was a physician by profession, so i am merely regurgitating opinions of authors i read, i'd welcome responses so i can broaden my views.]]> Sun, 05 Aug 2007 12:17:29 -0400
Of course, there are always people who are down on the market at any given time. bears base their negative views on problems like the housing slump, high energy prices, a rapidly maninfesting credit crunch, etc. When didnt bears make their case on factors like these, in recent years.


Sure they are right to be bearish because the housing market is weak. But they were bearish when the housing market was strong (too strong, bubble!). They could be bearish because energy prices are high. But they were bearish when energy prices were lower, the market was to fall apart at 50, 60, 70, 78, dollar oil. They could be bearish because credit is tighter. But they was bearish when credit was easier.

So bears make a different argument, every time, its like calling for rain everyday ofcourse one of those days youd be quite the prognosticator.

It’s not that they have been dead wrong on the market the last 20 years, the world’s greatest period of economic prosperity, we've had tech bubble 87, 90, 98, tech bubble. Now there are talking about, The growth in U.S. economic power and personal prosperity is a Fed-induced bubble of gigantic proportions.


Everyone can have their own opinions, but you can't manufacture facts.


U.S. GDP Growth the past two decades is real.

Net wealth in the U.S. – the total value of all assets, including stocks, bonds, bank accounts, houses and retirement funds, after subtracting debt – is approximately $54 trillion today. That's $16 trillion higher than it was four years ago. And it's nearly 10 times what total net worth was in the U.S. in 1980. American wealth is real and rising.

History shows that owning stocks, is the best route to financial independence. Dr. Jeremy Siegel, a professor at the prestigious Wharton School and author of “Stocks for the Long Run,” has tallied the return of T-bills, bonds, stocks and gold over the past couple hundred years. According to Siegel, during the period above, the same dollar invested in T-bills turned into $2,830. A dollar invested in bonds turned into $6,920. And a dollar invested in stocks turned into more than $3 million.

According to Jeremy Siegel, during the period above, the same dollar invested in T-bills turned into $2,830. A dollar invested in bonds turned into $6,920. And a dollar invested in stocks – drum roll, please – turned into more than $3 million.

In short, owning a portfolio of profitable businesses has historically given a higher return than cash, bonds or gold over the long term.

I recently read, more than two-thirds of the companies in the S&P 500 have now reported earnings. And despite a one-week, 4.9% selloff of the S&P 500 in July, “profit growth stands at more than twice the average of analysts' forecasts heading into this earnings season,” this according to Reuters.

I am a Technician (as a trader) and was a physician by profession, so i am merely regurgitating opinions of authors i read, i'd welcome responses so i can broaden my views.]]>