RossQ

Potash Corp., Agrium Caught in Industry-Wide Downturn

David you keep missing the point, any rally in the commodities is sold off due to rising dollar, Did you miss the ECB statement today? Dollar is now above its 200dma and dollar is up big agaisnt other currencies. Even though i'm still long coomodity plays I fear the rally is over, even the debacle at AIG, and various other financials trigger a relocation of funds into the better growth stories as you mentioned above. This is a bad sign as I have been posting for days, Great news , Great earnings big correction, smslls like a top, PE contraction phase. Raising cash again today!

Potash Corp., Agrium Caught in Industry-Wide Downturn

Dollar break out killing oil and the rest of commodities

Potash Corp., Agrium Caught in Industry-Wide Downturn

user 195550: I agree 100%, I refer you to my earlier post

Potash Corp., Agrium Caught in Industry-Wide Downturn

I think you are all missing the point. Hedge Funds were in a basket of stocks that are ini the Ag, Metals, Mining, oil and gas exploration and Services while the financials, tech, housing and retail were beat down like a pauper trying to steal a scone in the streets of england on a rainy cold day. They have just pulled the money out after the Fed bail out to see if this is the fifth bottom in the credit melt down, read Doug Kass and Meridth Whitney who were the only people on Wall Street that wrote about this mess (and Ron Insana)

Potash Corp., Agrium Caught in Industry-Wide Downturn

Correction: "I am with Meridith Whitney and Ken Heebner", bearish housing and financials and bullish AG, Steel, Oil etc

Potash Corp., Agrium Caught in Industry-Wide Downturn

You are right on about the reason for the decline in the stock of all the O&G, Coals, Steels its almost as if no one believes the outlook the CEO's of these companies talked about in their conference calls, I have listened to those calls and I found little reason for this selloff but one has to accept it and not keep blinders on. I have sold a few positions in commodities to lessen the pain as I dont know what the future hold. Its almost as painful as the internet bubble bursting.

One thing to notice though is that while the dow and s&p were down day after day from march to end of june these stocks were riding high so there was already a disconnect from the market averages, that divergence for me holds no importance.

The fast money was hiding in these stocks waiting for the bottom in Financials and the other undesirables. No they are long stocks that are bleeding money and have bad balance sheets and forsaking the good.

I am with Meridith Whitney and Ken Heebner, there is more pain ahead for the groups I like but when the financial stocks, and housing tech fall from favor hedge funds will find their way back (This rally isnt real, S&P has topped out at 1280 range three times in a month, either it will break upwards or breakdown and my guess is down because of the fundementals).

People think its good for the market if OIL goes down, but thats not true, what that will indicate is that there is less demand for oil and other commodities. This would signal a global slow down which is bad for your multinationals who are doing so great (tounge and cheek due to weak dollar). That brings me to my final point $DXY is at the big resistence level, its no coincidence that commodities i.e. OIL are at major support levels, we will see what gives.


Long SKF, SRS, SDS, QID and and oil, coal, Ag, steels

The Brightest Stars in the Commodities Boom, Part Two

K Fine owns Target, and Tesoro. She is a value investor. Not growth or momentum like Pete. Coal stocks found support at the 50 DMA for now if that breaks down you pull out for a small loss. Stuff thats in a trend will stay that way until it doesnt. Take a look at the 5 year $CRX chart we are right at its support. If this breaks I am selling everything related. Ross

On Jul 10 10:38 AM crimfunk wrote:

> Why would you not believe that he added James River Coal Company
> (JRCC) at $5.00 and sold for a huge profits? His other post called
> the coal bubble spot on. K-Fine on fast money also called the s/t
> coal bubble.

The Brightest Stars in the Commodities Boom, Part Two

Wow you really know a lot about this stuff and I have never read anything about this topic before. Thank you for the info. I have to say though, I have owned these stocks early in the year, they came up on my screens, but the charts broke down, and I got out with a small loss, these stocks are in real trouble (matbe not the companies). What will be the catalyst to turn the stocks around? I have found that stuff that isnt working, continues to not work until it does.