Jay's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/91058/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/138904/comments?source=feed#comment-513456 513456
In my humble opinion :)

On May 21 12:34 PM Michael Johnston wrote:

> @ Alan Young
> Alan - you make a good point but I think you misinterpreted this
> article as a ringing endorsement for buying real estate ETFs. As
> I pointed out, there's still a lot of bad news out there, particularly
> with respect to the commercial sector. I'm trying to lay out some
> of the arguments on both sides of the aisle.
>
> I also respectfully disagree that consumer confidence is irrelevant.
> Given that retail REITs comprise a large portion of real estate ETFs,
> increased spending (which results from increased confidence) is definitely
> meaningful.]]> Thu, 21 May 2009 16:27:47 -0400
In my humble opinion :)

On May 21 12:34 PM Michael Johnston wrote:

> @ Alan Young
> Alan - you make a good point but I think you misinterpreted this
> article as a ringing endorsement for buying real estate ETFs. As
> I pointed out, there's still a lot of bad news out there, particularly
> with respect to the commercial sector. I'm trying to lay out some
> of the arguments on both sides of the aisle.
>
> I also respectfully disagree that consumer confidence is irrelevant.
> Given that retail REITs comprise a large portion of real estate ETFs,
> increased spending (which results from increased confidence) is definitely
> meaningful.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122367/comments?source=feed#comment-401960 401960
I believe a bubble exists when investors/speculators primarily base their decision on the ability to sell to a greater fool at a higher price, rather than an objective view of timing and riskiness of anticipated cash flows. I don't know what "speculative bubble rally" you're referring to, as all major indices are only a few percent off their lows, which are 50% off their highs.

I see absolutely no evidence of a bubble in any asset class right now, except perhaps gold and US treasuries.

I'm not even sure why I'm responding to this piece of "analysis," except to give myself a reference point to say we're at or near a bottom in US equities.]]> Tue, 24 Feb 2009 16:21:47 -0500
I believe a bubble exists when investors/speculators primarily base their decision on the ability to sell to a greater fool at a higher price, rather than an objective view of timing and riskiness of anticipated cash flows. I don't know what "speculative bubble rally" you're referring to, as all major indices are only a few percent off their lows, which are 50% off their highs.

I see absolutely no evidence of a bubble in any asset class right now, except perhaps gold and US treasuries.

I'm not even sure why I'm responding to this piece of "analysis," except to give myself a reference point to say we're at or near a bottom in US equities.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113960/comments?source=feed#comment-351665 351665
Also, you're paying down the "principal," not "principle," of the mortgage balance.]]> Sat, 10 Jan 2009 11:10:35 -0500
Also, you're paying down the "principal," not "principle," of the mortgage balance.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94838/comments?source=feed#comment-250552 250552 Wed, 10 Sep 2008 11:59:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91409/comments?source=feed#comment-234472 234472
That being said, selfless promoters of growth stocks typically fail to heed what I consider to be the primary rule in economics - reversion to the mean.

Arguing over incremental tax benefits from option exercises is somewhat irrelevant from a value conclusions exercise. Value is determined by growth in excess of the a firm's economic costs of capital. There are way too many smart people out there paying attention to AAPL for me to waste any time coming to my own value conclusion. You all apparently have your own vehement opinions, which is all well and good. Just be cautious when trying to value future growth based on current valuations.

Also, to whoever the person was early in this bitter diatribe against the author that referenced AAPL's cash position as a rebuttal to overvaluation conclusions - cash is not an operating asset.]]> Wed, 20 Aug 2008 01:56:31 -0400
That being said, selfless promoters of growth stocks typically fail to heed what I consider to be the primary rule in economics - reversion to the mean.

Arguing over incremental tax benefits from option exercises is somewhat irrelevant from a value conclusions exercise. Value is determined by growth in excess of the a firm's economic costs of capital. There are way too many smart people out there paying attention to AAPL for me to waste any time coming to my own value conclusion. You all apparently have your own vehement opinions, which is all well and good. Just be cautious when trying to value future growth based on current valuations.

Also, to whoever the person was early in this bitter diatribe against the author that referenced AAPL's cash position as a rebuttal to overvaluation conclusions - cash is not an operating asset.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85316/comments?source=feed#comment-207570 207570 Thu, 17 Jul 2008 08:57:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81817/comments?source=feed#comment-187703 187703 Wed, 18 Jun 2008 11:16:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80217/comments?source=feed#comment-179730 179730 Thu, 05 Jun 2008 12:03:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79181/comments?source=feed#comment-175897 175897
Geo - the 42.26% of the the SRS portfolio is a particular repo agreement - overnight cash - they're not playing the bond market (or the "financial instrument market") - I'd love to hear about your "definite buy/sell parameters" though.]]> Thu, 29 May 2008 09:46:13 -0400
Geo - the 42.26% of the the SRS portfolio is a particular repo agreement - overnight cash - they're not playing the bond market (or the "financial instrument market") - I'd love to hear about your "definite buy/sell parameters" though.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77207/comments?source=feed#comment-167718 167718
How does the fact that - after all write-offs announced thus far, some level of profitability remains - indicate that the worst is behind us? Someone please enlighten me?]]> Wed, 14 May 2008 20:03:44 -0400
How does the fact that - after all write-offs announced thus far, some level of profitability remains - indicate that the worst is behind us? Someone please enlighten me?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68401/comments?source=feed#comment-126967 126967 Sat, 15 Mar 2008 18:44:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/65666/comments?source=feed#comment-117823 117823 Fri, 22 Feb 2008 10:38:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/60305/comments?source=feed#comment-110989 110989
While there are obviously extended periods of time (i.e. the 70s) when index funds would've left buy-and-hold investors disappointed, at least they have good old Ibbotson to provide them with a long-term piece of mind. Slick hedge fund marketing can point to a lovely quant strategy that generates simulated returns, and has perhaps generated alpha over a given time horizon, but I think I'd rather rely on time-tested beta than highly unstable and unproven alpha.]]> Thu, 17 Jan 2008 00:33:38 -0500
While there are obviously extended periods of time (i.e. the 70s) when index funds would've left buy-and-hold investors disappointed, at least they have good old Ibbotson to provide them with a long-term piece of mind. Slick hedge fund marketing can point to a lovely quant strategy that generates simulated returns, and has perhaps generated alpha over a given time horizon, but I think I'd rather rely on time-tested beta than highly unstable and unproven alpha.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/60373/comments?source=feed#comment-110734 110734 Wed, 16 Jan 2008 09:11:23 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/59454/comments?source=feed#comment-109097 109097
Further, to those posting above, proper grammar would help the rest of us understand your argument(s) - i.e. difference between your/you're, who's/whose. I recommend Strunk & White.]]> Tue, 08 Jan 2008 23:54:32 -0500
Further, to those posting above, proper grammar would help the rest of us understand your argument(s) - i.e. difference between your/you're, who's/whose. I recommend Strunk & White.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/53092/comments?source=feed#comment-101200 101200
JMeyer, had you the analytical wherewithal to see that Amit has written numerous CROX-related pieces over the last week, including a well-articulated analytical case for shorting prior to the earnings announcement, you'd see that this was just a recap of a variety of prior pieces.

At least you were honest enough to put forth the reason for your pathetic diatribe, as being long has obviously hurt the last week. I hope for your shareholders it's been a long position still showing some profits.

Cheers,

Jay]]> Wed, 07 Nov 2007 10:48:26 -0500
JMeyer, had you the analytical wherewithal to see that Amit has written numerous CROX-related pieces over the last week, including a well-articulated analytical case for shorting prior to the earnings announcement, you'd see that this was just a recap of a variety of prior pieces.

At least you were honest enough to put forth the reason for your pathetic diatribe, as being long has obviously hurt the last week. I hope for your shareholders it's been a long position still showing some profits.

Cheers,

Jay]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/48509/comments?source=feed#comment-100468 100468 Wed, 31 Oct 2007 17:37:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/51702/comments?source=feed#comment-100138 100138
Corporate history is replete with examples of companies that have failed in this endeavor, sapping shareholder value in the process. Microsoft is a textbook example of a mature company that subsidizes various struggling units at the expense of current shareholders - to use Bennett Stewart's term, the lead steers aren't blind to this, hence the fact that MSFT has gone nowhere for six years.

What is the answer to "unlock shareholder value"? Honestly, I think MSFT management is very scared vis-a-vis the migration towards web-based platforms. Yes, this will take time, as GOOG's (and other) current options are a far cry from the robust options of Office. However, this migration is inevitable, rendering both their OS and Office platforms more and more obsolete. Thus, the subsidization of web-based initiatives at the expense of their cash cows.

Obviously the long-term potential of their stock isn't in the OS/Office opportunities, but in MSFT's ability to create value in the web space, a proposition they've failed at thus far.]]> Sun, 28 Oct 2007 19:38:36 -0400
Corporate history is replete with examples of companies that have failed in this endeavor, sapping shareholder value in the process. Microsoft is a textbook example of a mature company that subsidizes various struggling units at the expense of current shareholders - to use Bennett Stewart's term, the lead steers aren't blind to this, hence the fact that MSFT has gone nowhere for six years.

What is the answer to "unlock shareholder value"? Honestly, I think MSFT management is very scared vis-a-vis the migration towards web-based platforms. Yes, this will take time, as GOOG's (and other) current options are a far cry from the robust options of Office. However, this migration is inevitable, rendering both their OS and Office platforms more and more obsolete. Thus, the subsidization of web-based initiatives at the expense of their cash cows.

Obviously the long-term potential of their stock isn't in the OS/Office opportunities, but in MSFT's ability to create value in the web space, a proposition they've failed at thus far.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/48509/comments?source=feed#comment-97620 97620
Thoughts?]]> Wed, 03 Oct 2007 19:02:35 -0400
Thoughts?]]>