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BruceInKY

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  • More on Consumer Sentiment: The 84.9 print is the highest since July 2007 and near the 40-year average of 85.3 (h/t tradefast). Current conditions rose to 91.3 vs. a consensus 88.8, the highest level since January 2008. Off early at the open, the S&P 500 now flat. [View news story]
    Must have polled government workers in Northern Virginia.
    Nov 9 10:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Expect The EPA To Finish Off Thermal Coal [View article]
    My state gets 90% of its electricity from coal and our large manufacturers have long benefited from comparatively low utility costs. Sayonara.
    Nov 8 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Jobless Claims: Today's print and releases over the next few weeks are likely to be skewed by the Hurricane. At first, says UBS' Maury Harris, the numbers will be lower as claimants are unable to file. Later, the Hurricane "will undoubtedly cause" an increase. [View news story]
    As my business partner said of his wife, who went for Obama, "the irony is, she probably just voted herself out of a job."
    Nov 8 09:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The European Commission slashes forecasts across the board, seeing German 2013 GDP growth of 0.8% vs. 1.7% previously. In the U.K. -0.3% vs. +0.5% previously. It expects Spain to miss its budget deficit targets by wide margins. Greece: Debt/GDP of 177% in 2013, 188% in 2014 ... sounds about on target. The euro now lower by 0.2%, buying $1.2792. [View news story]
    Nothing to worry about, as the dollar will be following the euro lower.
    Nov 7 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fox, CBS, NBC call the presidential race for incumbent Barack Obama after multiple networks call Ohio for the president. Updated: S&P e-Mini futures look priced in: -0.47%; The dollar -0.47% against euro, -0.41% against Swiss franc. Updated 11:38 p.m: AP calls the race for Obama. S&P futures -0.58%; the dollar -0.41% against euro; -0.2% against pound; -0.39% against Swiss franc. [View news story]
    I am going to close my retail business. All risk, no reward is the forecast and my lease is up in February.
    Nov 7 06:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks rallied on investor relief over an end to election uncertainty, as the market typically has done on presidential election days. "Republican sectors" such as coal, HMOs and defense stocks performed well, fueled by rumors of Romney strength. Tracking the rally in stocks, crude oil spiked 3.6% to $88.71 and gold jumped 1.9% to $1,715. NYSE advancers led decliners nearly two to one. [View news story]
    Wed, Nov 7, Market Preview: HUGE SELL-OFF
    Nov 7 12:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The story in Asia continues to be Japan, where shares defy stumbling Western equities and continue to gain - the Nikkei's 1.1% move last night bringing a 2-week rally to 6.5%. A sliding yen - the dollar surpassing ¥80 for the first time since early summer - amidst the usual chatter of further BOJ action is helping grease the run. EWJ +0.8% premarket. [View news story]
    So BOJ is digitizing enough paper to offset the almost 15% decline in Japanese exports to China, and the complimentary declines in exports to South Korea and Taiwan, overall slowing of the global supply chain. Yikes.
    Oct 25 07:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Japanese exports -10.3% Y/Y in September vs consensus of -9.6% for the biggest drop since May 2011. Imports +4.1% vs +2.9%. Trade deficit ¥558.6B vs ¥547.9B for the first September shortfall since 1979. Exports to China -14.1% as the East China Sea islands row takes a toll. Sales to EU -21.1%, to U.S. +0.9% vs +10.3% in August. [View news story]
    Ouch. I was wondering what effect the Senkaku "dispute" (a.k.a. Chinese power grab and naked challenge to US and Japan) would have on September numbers. Consider the corollary impact on supply chain partners in South Korea and Taiwan; they must be negative 10-12+% as well.
    Oct 22 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Caterpillar's (CAT) Q3 earnings: CAT confirms it's tough out there. FY2012 outlook is lowered to $66B revenue and EPS of $9-$9.25 from $68-$70B and $9.60, "reflect(ing) global economic conditions that are weaker than we had previously expected." "Cat dealers have lowered order rates to well below end-user demand ... Production across much of the company has been lowered, resulting in temporary shutdowns and layoffs." Shares -1.4% permarket. (PR[View news story]
    Perhaps dealers are cutting their credit exposure and or taking profit out of their businesses by reducing inventory. Suggests caution and/or pessimism about local conditions on a global scale.
    Oct 22 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepping for Obamacare requirements to provide health care insurance to full-time employees by 2014, Darden Restaurants (DRI) tests putting more workers on 30-hour schedules. Previous: Darden looks to save costs by giving employees cash instead of insurance. [View news story]
    Apparently it was not enough that Darden pimped itself out for MO's "Let's Move" malarkey. Proving that even if you shave off calories from your menus...

    http://n.pr/QaOwVb

    ...you'll still have to trim staff to survive Obamacare!
    Oct 9 11:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why An Islamic Revolution In Saudi Arabia Is A Surefire Way To Send Oil To $300 A Barrel [View article]
    Venera..., I suspect you have fun at the horse races, winning or losing.
    Oct 1 12:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Domino's about to eat Pizza Hut's lunch? While Pizza Hut (YUM -0.7%) keeps a concentrated focus on growth potential in China, Domino's (DPZ +1.2%) says it will take on the company head on in the U.S. with a move into pan pizza. Starting today, the company's 5K U.S. stores will offer the popular style that accounts for close to 20% of the broad pizza market. [View news story]
    For what it's worth chopchop, I'm biased towards PZZA and YUM as hometown teams, and hold small stakes. Bored by Papa Juan's but my kids still prefer it. Haven't liked Pizza Hut for decades, but you get KFC, Taco Bell, LJS and A&W in the mix. Ergo, I prefer PZZA and YUM as investments because of their global expansion plans and overall superior marketing and promotions here.

    My local market is over-run with newer independents and eclectic franchise pizzerias; competition domestically is more intense than ever. I think overseas operations are essential, as there are still territories where big players can define and own the category.
    Sep 30 12:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why An Islamic Revolution In Saudi Arabia Is A Surefire Way To Send Oil To $300 A Barrel [View article]
    Interesting take Mr. Hussain. I'll try to digest but meanwhile I concur that there are many tricky games being played.

    As you are a supply chain practitioner, I'll interject that China is game-playing off religiously motivated as well as national, geo-political and macro-economic circumstances with a great deal more sophistication than the US, the EU, Japan the Sauds, etc. The seemingly small events around and about the Senkaku islands will measurably impact global economic data in October.

    Your "calibrated" risk spread on turnover of the kingdom is useful as a way of looking at the situation and I appreciate your comment as a whole. Regards.
    Sep 30 12:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why An Islamic Revolution In Saudi Arabia Is A Surefire Way To Send Oil To $300 A Barrel [View article]
    Mr. Katusa, I appreciate and agree with much of your analysis, but I'm baffled by this sentence:

    "Islamist leadership in Saudi would not be the moderate, democratic version we're seeing in Egypt."
    Sep 29 04:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Toyota (TM) and Nissan (NSANY.OB) are cutting production in China due to a decline in demand that comes amid simmering tensions between Japan and China over a territorial dispute. Toyota and its Lexus brand are adjusting production down while Nissan's Chinese joint venture will stop making passenger vehicles through Oct. 7. Just another effect of the skirmish, one strategist says: "The market could be stuck with this for months to come." [View news story]
    China is evidently prepared to capitalize on and contribute to other nation's weaknesses. Not only the Japanese, South Koreans and Taiwanese but also North America and the EU will be confronting an expansionist China, fueled by our own profligacy.
    Sep 26 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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