4 Scary Charts Warning Of The Next Financial Crisis [View article]
Sorry, but Greece and Spain have never had cheap rates and almost all of their debt is external. Greece went from 90% to 130-140% external debt and yields of 6-7% - that is 10-20X the servicing cost as Japan.
This Is Why Netflix Will Go Bankrupt [View article]
ok, 3D printing, let me check that out -maybe I'll throw a handful their way.
No, none myself, my new theory is do the exact opposite of what I used to do, instead of buy puts, I sell puts or calls and watch the suckers die an inglorious death, I root for stock to stay stable now.
This Is Why Netflix Will Go Bankrupt [View article]
"When he gets out of NFLX I'll get out in time to still be way ahead."
Ok, well considering the runup, I'd agree that it is highly likely, so Congrats.
" find good companies that are leaders in their segment and follow that story until it changes. It works and the best thing - you don't even need a buddy! "
How about you tell us here and you be our buddy? That way we can both win.What's next?
4 Scary Charts Warning Of The Next Financial Crisis [View article]
"And, so if the country's wealth/debt is a wash, it doesn't matter? Well, yes it does, as the ones who saved the money will not be the ones that get to spend it. "
You are naive and clearly know nothing about history, inlcuding recent Government actions to provide liquidity to avoid economic crises. Please identify just ONE government default or even an IMF required bailout where the external debt servicing is as low as Japan's is today.
Take 55% of the economy * 1% of interest and servicing of external debt is less than 1% of the economy.
Argentina had an external debt of 50% of GDP in 2001 with average interest rates of about 10%, so 5% servicing of the shrinking economy
Japan pays about 1/10th of what Argentina did. Try looking at Russian 1998, Mexico 1995, Brazil 1986, Peru 1987, Chile 1983, Southeast Asia in the late 90's, Turkey 2000 - NONE are similar at all to what Japan is paying. Just one, find just one example. You are delusional.
This Is Why Netflix Will Go Bankrupt [View article]
Gary, do you know how Carl Icahn made his fortune? Asset stripping and Leveraged buyouts in order to destroy a company and sell its valuable assets to a competitor and leave the banks screwed after TWA filed for bankruptcy. He made himself rich through being a corporate raider and investor bully, not through brilliant passive investor insight. He makes himself rich, not those that tag along and don't know when to get out. I am not sure what he intends to do with Netflix, maybe he'll take his chips off the table, maybe not. I do know one thing, he is not thinking how he can help Gary J and Gary J's friends to get rich like him, you're his competition, not his buddy.
Investors Should Keep Netflix In Their Portfolios [View article]
One that makes money and has done so for decades or longer is pretty safe. J&J, IBM, P&G and Bristol-Myers - Netflix ,on the other hand, makes almost nothing in comparison to these other guys, but is owned almost entirely by institutions (as opposed to companies abover that are 70% or less institutionally owned) that invest "other people's money" and collect fees on the principal. If you haven't figured out that wall street creates bubbled to compensate themselves and not reward long term investors, you will find out as long as you jump out of the elevator before it hits the ground. Netflix is saturated in the US and international is not doing great, outside of Canada and MExico, Europe will be awful and has a lot more competition - so Netflix highflying days are coming to an end, maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow but soon and for the rest of your life.
This Is Why Netflix Will Go Bankrupt [View article]
"The only way to value Netflix is to look at its liquidation value."
doubtful, I think Netflix has enough customers to justify a $100 per sub value to a bigger tech player. Yahoo would probably buy it at $50 per share or so, AMZN probably not due to its balance sheet not being able to absorb a big purchase (ie AMZN has $5 billion in net tangible assets, in spite of the $150 billion market cap) -maybe a stock swap, but that doesn't make sense to me.
AAPL and the others won't go near NFLX.
So, I say it goes to $40 early next year and then gets bought at $50,
4 Scary Charts Warning Of The Next Financial Crisis [View article]
"I honestly think that makes it worse right now."
Then you don't understand how economies and governments work.
The asset and debt are all internal and the same country, the country will consume exactly what the country produces. The bigger problem is where a country consumes more than it produces and relies on financing that gap from foreigners, and some times in a different currency than their own (eg Argentina)
4 Scary Charts Warning Of The Next Financial Crisis [View article]
Japan has less external debt than the US, UK, Germany, France and the EU average. this simple mistake will cost you everything you bet on this preposterous investment thesis. It has destroyed a lot of people over the past 22 years.
Should Netflix Dump Its DVD Business? [View article]
In July, 2011 they had over 25 million subs, they now have 31 million including foreigners using the VPN. In Latin America, over half that I know go over a VPN and access the US website, so it may be millions. It is incredibly easy as you only have to go over a US VPN (very common) and put in a US zip code in your address and match it to your credit card zip code ( just change it temporarily).
Should Netflix Dump Its DVD Business? [View article]
The DVD business will be profitable for 2-3 more years, who will invest in new DVDs fpr that type of business? How many zombie subscribers will cancel when they realize it is some new company charging thier credit card/ How many subscribers will cancel when they see the split bill and don't need the DVD part any more?
It's a great cash cow for Netflix, a lousy investment for anyone else.
Since House of Cards was in the middle of February and the normal cancellation rate is 14-15%, 8% would seem to be in the ballpark for cancellations of any quarter.
4 Scary Charts Warning Of The Next Financial Crisis [View article]
4 Scary Charts Warning Of The Next Financial Crisis [View article]
This Is Why Netflix Will Go Bankrupt [View article]
This Is Why Netflix Will Go Bankrupt [View article]
No, none myself, my new theory is do the exact opposite of what I used to do, instead of buy puts, I sell puts or calls and watch the suckers die an inglorious death, I root for stock to stay stable now.
This Is Why Netflix Will Go Bankrupt [View article]
Ok, well considering the runup, I'd agree that it is highly likely, so Congrats.
" find good companies that are leaders in their segment and follow that story until it changes. It works and the best thing - you don't even need a buddy! "
How about you tell us here and you be our buddy? That way we can both win.What's next?
4 Scary Charts Warning Of The Next Financial Crisis [View article]
You are naive and clearly know nothing about history, inlcuding recent Government actions to provide liquidity to avoid economic crises. Please identify just ONE government default or even an IMF required bailout where the external debt servicing is as low as Japan's is today.
Take 55% of the economy * 1% of interest and servicing of external debt is less than 1% of the economy.
Argentina had an external debt of 50% of GDP in 2001 with average interest rates of about 10%, so 5% servicing of the shrinking economy
Japan pays about 1/10th of what Argentina did. Try looking at Russian 1998, Mexico 1995, Brazil 1986, Peru 1987, Chile 1983, Southeast Asia in the late 90's, Turkey 2000 - NONE are similar at all to what Japan is paying. Just one, find just one example. You are delusional.
This Is Why Netflix Will Go Bankrupt [View article]
Investors Should Keep Netflix In Their Portfolios [View article]
This Is Why Netflix Will Go Bankrupt [View article]
This Is Why Netflix Will Go Bankrupt [View article]
doubtful, I think Netflix has enough customers to justify a $100 per sub value to a bigger tech player. Yahoo would probably buy it at $50 per share or so, AMZN probably not due to its balance sheet not being able to absorb a big purchase (ie AMZN has $5 billion in net tangible assets, in spite of the $150 billion market cap) -maybe a stock swap, but that doesn't make sense to me.
AAPL and the others won't go near NFLX.
So, I say it goes to $40 early next year and then gets bought at $50,
4 Scary Charts Warning Of The Next Financial Crisis [View article]
Then you don't understand how economies and governments work.
The asset and debt are all internal and the same country, the country will consume exactly what the country produces. The bigger problem is where a country consumes more than it produces and relies on financing that gap from foreigners, and some times in a different currency than their own (eg Argentina)
4 Scary Charts Warning Of The Next Financial Crisis [View article]
Should Netflix Dump Its DVD Business? [View article]
Should Netflix Dump Its DVD Business? [View article]
It's a great cash cow for Netflix, a lousy investment for anyone else.
A Netflix Bull In Bear's Clothing [View article]