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pauldeba

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  • Netflix Changing HR, Not Just TV [View article]
    You would definitely be fired for that, and that is why they have a big problem. There is a big problem in Netflix employee culture with the "adequate performance gets a generous severance package". Firing "adequate performers" is not what a team is. A bunch of "superstars" is the early 80's Montreal Expos or the Philadelphia Eagles "Dream team" or even the Miami Heat in Year 1 of the 3 Kings - They all lost because they lost their perspective and thought they were better than everyone and should be gifted the prize. That insular attitude is what guys like Belichick feed off of.

    Netflix "Unlimited Vacation" in reality is sending the exact opposite message - it is "Don't take vacation" otherwise we know we haven't properly allocated enough work to you. I would like to see stats of the unlimited vacation, if they exist, I strongly doubt that they exceed what most employers give and I'd be surprised if they exceeded half of a normal company's paid time off.

    They work you to the bone and then they fire you, that's what Netflix probably is. It has poor reviews from ex-employees, that's the ultimate measuring stick.
    Dec 2, 2014. 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysis: International subs up 3M at Netflix [View news story]
    Considering the last couple weeks of December is the heavy signup period and Netflix projected 2.15 million overall, I'd say the 3 million in 2 months is laughable. Considering how hard it is to separate out each jurisdiction, I would wager heavy money that they are not only wrong, but off by a margin of 50%.

    Considering the 3 million on top of 15.84 million international subs at the end of Q3 would get it close to 19 million, the "pace" to top 17 million would have been accomplished at the end of October, so they can't even predict the past.

    The third paragraph is kind of general and vague, but probably true, true and worthless.
    Dec 2, 2014. 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix sues Yahoo CIO Mike Kail for alleged kickbacks [View news story]
    I talked to a lawyer about this today. This would be a hard criminal case for a prosecutor and an easy defense: "Although he inappropriately had a "conflict of interest" when negotiating the contracts against his employment agreement, that was just an oversight as his consulting firm did all this work to earn the fees in his free time. He even told Reed Hastings and the CFO at a meeting and they said OK - DARN, he forgot to put that in writing!" This would be a different story if it were a New York and Finance and the Prosecutor were a Giuliani/Eliot Spitzer type guy.
    Dec 2, 2014. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix sues Yahoo CIO Mike Kail for alleged kickbacks [View news story]
    How does a company review undiscovered criminal activity? Criminal activity that even the victim did not know about at the time? The 3rd party suppliers were unlikely to say "Yeah, we know him, pay him lots of kickbacks".
    Dec 1, 2014. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix sues Yahoo CIO Mike Kail for alleged kickbacks [View news story]
    more than that, he should have stayed to cover them up. Once you steal, you need a very good exit plan, or else you will be caught. Most people never leave, some never take vacation. Colluding with another person also leaves witnesses. This guy was dumb and destroyed his life and career, he may go to prison for a decade or more for this.
    Nov 29, 2014. 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix boss: Broadcast TV has another 15 years [View news story]
    So, this is the big watershed moment for changing from a cable running into every home to a monitor which will be replaced by a cable running into every home to a monitor? Sounds huge, meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
    Nov 29, 2014. 11:10 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Home Netflix Use Continues Its Ascension [View article]
    The statement has political value. Obama passed a sweeping health care reform despite not knowing much about health care or what the effects would be, he was just a press secretary for whatever special interests that wrote it. He now pushes for net neutrality not knowing what it really means, although the special interests behind it are wealthy Obama supporters. There is one common thread.
    Nov 25, 2014. 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Netflix May Look Like Five Years From Now [View article]
    They've added 16 million International in over 3 years of expansion and will now add another 127 million in the next 5 years, or 25+ million per year? That is absurd.

    The US has started to hit saturation, Year on Year drop for the past few quarters including Q4 estimates is down almost 30%, yet somehow that will not continue to slow, even though the price goes up to $15. If the price goes up to $15 - 25% of subs will cancel right away. A good portion of us use Netflix once a week at most, and we won't be paying triple the equivalent hourly rate for what cable currently charges.
    Nov 20, 2014. 01:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Looking To 'Bloodlines' To Be Its Next 'House Of Cards' [View article]
    They had some commentary on their quarterly reports during 2005 and 2006 about the UK, they set up the entity, but never did business and shuttered it at the end of 2006, I guess.

    The tech curve is that in the US everything is technoloigically behind - we still use checks (they don't exist in most countries), bills are mailed to our home and the subsidized post office keeps junk mail and DVD going. The number of people that still use DVD players is also a much smaller portion than in the US, I'll bet.

    Sweden has high costs because civil servants make $40 an hour, get 6 weeks of vacation, get a bunch of holidays, get tons of other social benefits (18 months off for Paternity leave at full salary, early retirement at generous pensions), the taxes are high on the vehicles, the gas is $10 a gallon (although the government gets the taxes in the other hand, it still adds to the Post Office costs). Sweden has a lot of inefficiencies/subsidies to run that welfare state.
    Nov 20, 2014. 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Annual Valuation Of Netflix [View article]
    Growth is dead domestically, where all the profits are. That was evident in the last earnings report. The apologists claimed it was due to the $1 increase, pure nonsense as it had no effect the first time they did the $1 increase at the end of 2010. Next quarter may be ok, but it will be horrendous Q1 and Q2 and the stock will tank below $200 but we might see $450-500 first, I'm bullish for the next 2 months.
    Nov 16, 2014. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Looking To 'Bloodlines' To Be Its Next 'House Of Cards' [View article]
    They set up the UK in 2005 and never did it. I think the US being behind the curve technologically means that mail service in other countries is more expensive and slower. To ship a DVD in Sweden might cost over $1, $2 round trip.
    Nov 16, 2014. 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Looking To 'Bloodlines' To Be Its Next 'House Of Cards' [View article]
    About $400 million of $5 billion is DVD. And all of the profit excluding foreign jurisdiction tax benefits on local losses is DVD. I am not sure why you need to "guarantee it", it is easily available on their quarterly earnings reports.

    Again, they make NOTHING off streaming worldwide unless you consider foreign tax assets that may never be recoverable as "earnings".
    Nov 15, 2014. 11:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Still A Buy On Obama, Net Neutrality News [View article]
    You get what you pay for. Netflix at $16 is fine if you want DVDs and stale programming with an occasional "Netflix Original". But I pay for live sports, documentary channels and the news. I watch those channels at least 10X as much as Netflix, so they're equal deals. You obviously have different viewing habits and are fortunate that Netflix provides you that for $16. I think it's great that we can both co-exist, evil "Cable Shills" like me and Peace Loving Freedom Fighters like you. Actually, I don't even get cable, I get DirecTV, so I am more of a "satellite shill".

    Here's an interesting comparison of part of my package: I pay $250 or so for NFL Sunday Ticket so I can get all the Patriots' games. After eliminating Sunday Night, National, Thursday and Monday night Games - that comes out to about 6 or 7 games. So, I am basically paying $35 a game. However, I was travelling and not able to watch the game at home and wound up at an airport bar and the bill came to $87, probably still $60 at a non-airport bar, which would have been $5-9 at home for a sandwich and drink, so the math looks outrageous some times, but it works out for some of us.
    Nov 13, 2014. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama backs tough net neutrality rules [View news story]
    So your point is basically defeated, unless you think all Americans are taking your free life tips, which are worth what you charge. Your juvenile retort is a step up from your paranoid lunacy described in your profile, I'll give you that.
    Nov 12, 2014. 05:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Still A Buy On Obama, Net Neutrality News [View article]
    I think you lost the plot. Netflix is trading stock whose value is completely divorced from the potential return it can give back to investors. Interesting that Mark Cuban says NFLX is undervalued, as he should know, he sold Yahoo! a company for $6 billion in 2000 that was shuttered within 3 years, the return to Yahoo ,if anything was unlikely to be even 10% of the purchase price.

    additionally, you completely ignore the CFO's comments hedging on potential US max subs and a more limited scope of potential international subs, those two comments cut off about $800 million in market cap yesterday, the reality is it will take off $3-4 billion in real world return over the fantasy numbers analysts were throwing out.

    I see there are no numbers related to potential subs, content costs, revenue per user, new sources of revenue, competitive effect or anything else. If you ever get to the level of an extremely sloppy analysis, it will be a huge upgrade over this.
    Nov 12, 2014. 03:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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