Roger Erickson, PhD Neurophysiology
Interests - scalable systems methodology allowing use of emerging component capabilities
When will long-term investors have any cash to deploy? If you believe in their mantra, most of them think people should be nearly fully invested nearly all of the time - it is rare to have a long term Buy and Hold investor to keep 30% in cash for buying opportunities. How much of a loss are you willing to suffer waiting for a recovery? 10%, 20%, 30%? Do the numbers and see what kind of gain you will need to recoup to the break even point on several loss levels to get an idea of how long you may need to wait. For example a 30% loss requires a 43% gain to get back to the break even. A 20% loss takes a 25 % GAIN to get back to even.$100,000 - 20% = $80,000 . 80k X 25% = 20,000 +80k =100K There are few assets like PM's that are liquid and have NO counterparty risk. If you know of any that perform that function please post it for all to see. The fact of the matter is that some people ONLY save any money because of Precious Metals. If it were not for their gold and silver many would not have any money saved or invested. They would have Beanie babies or some other fad item. The people that buy Silver Eagles are much happier ten years later when they bought those coins made of PM's for their grandchildren (or whomever) when they find out the $8 - $12 bucks they spent is worth more than they paid.And the recipient learns a valuable lesson from it. There are good gifts and not so good gifts. Silver Eagles rank near the top of the list. Don't underestimate the power for people to develop good savings habits using PM's . It's fundamental. Our welfare system is a huge drain on the economy .Those of us working for a living instead of voting for a living see huge holes in our paychecks every week. As unfortunate as it is to know that cuts to foodstamps and welfare will likely cause a bit of suffering, it’s not the job of the government to forcibly remove money from the pockets of hard working Americans in order to take care of those who won’t work. Granted, there are some people who genuinely need the help, and those folks get dragged into the mud with the abusers, which isn’t fair to them. Now, just because the government shouldn’t be “helping” those in need, doesn’t mean we as Americans should forego kindness and charity. Quite the opposite. Americans are some of the most generous people on the planet, but unfortunately, that generosity gets quelled when the government is involved.Without the government in the way, regular every day individuals like you and me need to step up and start helping those who are in dire straits. That’s how this country used to be long before all of the social welfare programs, and it’s what made our nation so wonderful. If the government insists on being “helpful,” they can start by reducing taxes and ridiculous regulations that overburden small business owners, which will free them up to expand their companies and hire new workers. Two of my favorite comments ever on SA Avi Gilburt , Contributor
WOW!!! So, I guess when sentiment is at historical lows, we MUST assume it can only continue down!! lol
All you say constantly over and over is "I don't understand how it can work, so, clearly, it does not work." That really does not need much of a "demonstration" or response.
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The question isn't how high gold or silver will go in dollar terms, but will that amount of dollars buy more than it buys today.
....................................................................................................................................................... Let's say 50 years ago, 1964, your grandfather bequeathed you an inheritance worth $1,000, which he put in a pretty box with your name on it. At this moment, you are about to open that box… Would you be happy to find his personal check dated 1964 made payable to you; would you rather find ten $100 Federal Reserve Notes; or would you prefer to find that thousand bucks in the form of 4,000 silver quarters, the steady constant value of 715 ounces of silver, with a current dollar number north of $12,500? Would your choice be the same if you were putting your wealth away today for an heir to receive in ten, twenty, or fifty years?
..................................................................................................... Financial contagion happens at both the international level and the domestic level. At the domestic level, usually the failure of a domestic bank or financial intermediary triggers transmission when it defaults on interbank liabilities and sells assets in a fire sale, thereby undermining confidence in similar banks. An example of this phenomenon is the subsequent turmoil in the United Statesfinancial markets. International financial contagion, which happens in both advanced economies and developing economies, is the transmission of financial crisis across financial markets for direct or indirect economies. However, under today's financial system, with large volume of cash flow, such as hedge fund and cross-regional operation of large banks, financial contagion usually happens simultaneously both among domestic institutions and across countries. The cause of financial contagion usually is beyond the explanation of real economy, such as the bilateral trade volume.
I'm retired. Bought the farm -- literally (in NE Texas).
I'm a boomer, not a depression era kid (it was my parents who lived through that mess). So I'm exaggerating a bit when I state that the "Great Depression" ran into the late 50's where I grew up (the Appalachia of the West). But I did go to bed hungry, dreaming of food, because there was literally nothing to eat. The family's grocery problem was eventually solved through the good graces of a religious charity, the assistance of friends and neighbors, the perseverance of my parents, and more than a little luck.
I believe those early lean times provided a wee-bit of incentive to not let those circumstances repeat themselves... I really dislike going hungry.
But I was lucky. I had clothes; usually ate on a regular basis; got a bath once a week in a tin wash tub, whether it was needed or wanted; got medical treatment for the slices, dices and broken bones that would have crippled me, treatment for the diseases that, left untreated, would have killed me; and had the opportunity to go to school. That was an opportunity I seized with both hands and did not let go.
I am by nature inherently lazy... given the choice between digging ditch with pick and shovel at $0.10/hour or sitting behind a desk writing software at hundreds of times that hourly rate... I decided not to dig ditches.
Now that I'm retired and own the farm, I dig ditches for free.
As a kid I read constantly... pretty much everything on just about anything. Cleaned out the local libraries (it was a very small town). "The Richest Man in Babylon", biographies of Hughes, Carnegie, Rockefeller, and others, histories, westerns, mysteries, SF. Remembered various parables about being unable to grasp opportunities because one had wasted his resources.
Can't say I always succeeded, but I tried. Towards the end of my career, managed to live on about 1/3 of my gross, saving and investing what was left after taxes and insurance, and still had opportunities for fun, recreation, travel and friends.
As a NASA Engineer, I wrote a large variety of software. Some of the more notable items were:
* an email management system for the Agency and its contractors (the project included writing the procedures; reporting and correcting third party data errors;
* designing, writing and testing the software; designing and implementing the database schema and queries; navigating inter-center politics; etc);
* a moving map software that flew twice aboard the Shuttle and displayed alternate landing sites in the event of a launch emergency;
* post landing wheel-tire-brake analysis software for the Shuttle (STS-1 to final-flight);
* a graphical, real-time dynamic software simulator for a 7-joint robot;
* a FMEA/CIL data processing system (software and procedures) for Return-to-Flight after the Challenger disaster; data structures &
* translation software for the Shuttle's Wake Shield Experiment; and
* a Shuttle-Station docking simulator.
Also designed, developed, tested and used a simulation language, a graphics processing language, and various computer language processing and analysis tools.
And then there was the "fun" NASA stuff... logging 40 minutes of zero-G time (and 40 minutes of 2G time), riding a 6-DOF shuttle simulator, working (and biking) with a handful of astronauts, SCUBA-ing in the WETF whilst observing astronauts using the tools my group designed, witnessing a Shuttle launch, doing Shuttle post-landing ground penetrometer studies at Edwards AFB, simulating shuttle tile repair whilst mounted horizontally on an air-bearing floor, mentoring younger engineers, and working with some of the best and brightest people I've met in my life.
In my free time:
* I developed commercial library management, scheduling and reporting software packages, wrote the user manuals, made onsite visits and learned a lot of humility;
* guest lectured and taught software development at universities.
* lived for years in various locales in northern Japan, participated in a traditional Japanese marriage ceremony (my own), helped my father-in-law with a bit of traditional Japanese construction near Sendai, and played Shogi whenever possible (Shogi is the Japanese version of chess. The local shogi master's shocked expression of total surprise when I beat him at the game was priceless ... To the master I was just an idiot "gaijin" [foreigner] and not worth his full attention. He won the next game.);
* lived for three months in Hawaii;
* made brief excursions to Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean.
While at one time I could read, write, think, dream, and speak (without accent) in standard Japanese and could understand a bit of the Tsugaru and Zuzu-ben dialects, I don't practice much anymore.
My time in the US Army made me appreciate my MOS (a retired crypto sub-specialty) was not 11B.
I am less than 10 years from retirement and want to firm up the details. I have been a long and consistent saver but with no "business plan" as of yet. I have no financial background but enjoy learning about different investing philosophies. I want to be able to help my children understand these concepts so they can be better prepared for their future.
I currently have a 15 year mortgage on my home @ 3.75% with around 11 years left on it. My goal,and I know it's different than almost everyone else's ,is to have an Oz. of gold or 50 Oz. of Silver for each remaining month of the mortgage. That gives me some peace of mind,and I don't worry about daily fluctuations of the Precious metals prices. The good thing is that i'm working on both ends toward the middle and my break even point is not that far away. Sound crazy? I like the way it works at any rate.
FMI : 115 GLD is about $1200.00 spot gold price :)
1) This was a post I read on SA by another poster.It's concerning Inflation,Keynesian economics and governments that continue to fail the people.
Written by Kgroeppe :
" The Fed has engineered a 97% depreciation in our paper currency during its century of incompetence and fraud, i.e., it has defrauded the working class out of much of its hard-earned money. Since 1999 the process has accelerated with repeal of Glass-Steagall. How long will it take to go the rest of the way? When the Roman gold coin reached .5% Gold content, the empire collapsed, not only economically but also socially and politically. Many people who should know better believe that we can merely substitute another currency and be back in the race again. That is not the way it works.
When an economy collapses, there must be some entity to pay the bills. With a country like Argentina or Mexico, the big banks and the world economy take a hit, but it is small and causes no more than a blip in world economic activity. When an economy the size of ours collapses, it takes the whole world economy with it. With that goes the social and political structures also, because by that time the populace has completely lost confidence in everything, and does not know what to do.
So what can we do? One fact we do not normally learn in history classes is that when Rome "fell" it was followed by Persia, India, China and the Arab countries. Only one government did not follow suit - The Byzantine Empire. Why? Because around 1100 the Byzantine Emperor Alexios I Komnenos did something no other head of state in history has ever done. The Byzantine coinage had gone from gold to silver to copper to base metals with its accompanying inflation, such as we are seeing now. By this time Alexios was in power, and he must have seen what was going on in the world around him, and he restored 100% gold coinage. The Byzantine economy was restored to health and the Empire lasted another 350 years when it was conquered by the Turks.
Why can't we learn from Alexios? The change will involve some pain for everyone, but that is far better than what will happen otherwise. Do we want to leave behind us a healthy civilization ready to go another 1000 years, or do we want to leave only ruins? Time is running out, and that is one matter we cannot afford to put off.
If our civilization does collapse,we can count on from 200 to 500 years to restore some kind of order. Until then we will be more like Somalia than Zimbabwe, ruled by warlords. This is no scare tactic. This happened around 1200 B.C. and again after the demise of Rome. We have overly romanticized the "nobles" and "knights" of the Middle Ages, but closer study reveals that they were warlords with their armed retinues. Is this what we want our legacy to be? We can joke about it and make puns on Yellen's name (I certainly have done my share), but we need to abolish the Fed and come up with better economists than we have now advising the government. They are what I call fake economists, because they have mindlessly embraced Keynesian economics. John Maynard Keynes did not invent Keynesian economics; the Romans did, and look where it took them.
In 1835, Alexis de Tocqueville stated that the greatest threat to democracy was people voting themselves too many perks. We now know the truth in his statement, and it is time for us to adopt a more altruistic attitude, and admit that we have to pay for those perks, and begin to try to get this economy back on its feet. The past 6 years should have taught us an important lesson. If it hasn't, then we deserve whatever history has to dish out to us, and if we do not act now, that reckoning will be coming much sooner than we realize right now.
By the way, there is one economic lesson I can impart here, which has great pertinence in the here and now. We are told that inflation is running about 1.5%, but the figures used to compute this figure are selected. Inflation manifests in three ways:
A. increase in prices
B. decrease in quantity
C. decrease in quality
Have you looked at the size of the containers of food you buy in the grocery, or have you noticed the quality of cloth in your most recent clothing purchases?
Now you can decide how serious inflation is at present."
2.. When it comes to dealing with the government and particularly the present Obamacare TAX you to death administration,my favorite thought comes from Larry Gatlin of the Gatlin brothers. "You take your dog to a Veterinarian who also happens to be a Taxidermist ,no matter whether your dog gets better or not you will get your dog back" Gotta love the logic in that :)
3. A Collateralized Debt Object CDO is a perfect example of how bubbles occur.Gold may have paper bubbles created ,but Gold itself is not a bubble.If it reflects the market of paper trades that become bubbles ,it will be a safe haven in times of crisis .
.Paper trades of anything can be done in excess.That's my point plain and simple. Please read 'The Big Short' By Michael Lewis and you will realize how wrong the line of thinking of throwing money at investments can be.Anything can be a bad investment when taken to extreme., I wish we could all just see these type of so called investments for what they are. Paper trades are fine and serve a purpose ,if that is what you want . But it doesn't make Gold in your portfolio a bad idea ,all things in moderation .
The CDS http://thebea.st/10OOtSF market was a perfect example of an investment that was not suitable for people to be engaging in. Who knew what these things really were? In Lewis' book he points out many times how those making crazy profits off of these CDO and CDS transactions were the most blind because they didn't do their due diligence. Why should they ?They were making money with other peoples nest-eggs , and why rock the boat .
4.MONEY : What is it? Money must be a store of value, be fungible, be a unit of exchange, be portable, be durable, and be a unit of account. Fiat currency has all of these characteristics except one: It is not a store of value. The material it is made from is useless and it is no longer backed by gold. This makes it a currency, not money. Gold has always been money because it meets all of these parts of the definition and then some. It cannot be made nor destroyed. It retains its value and cannot be inflated. ALL fiat currencies go to zero eventually, gold and silver hold their value
Flat earthers(Global warming hoaxters) are usually unaware of this :
Isaiah 40:22 It is he that sitteth above the sphere of the earth, and the inhabitants thereof are as grasshoppers; that stretcheth out the heavens as a curtain, and spreadeth them out as a tent to dwell in;
Almost 700 years before Christ Isaiah wrote about the earth as being round (A sphere) not Flat.And many of the early scientist realized this Newton,Galileo.
The Book of Isaiah was written between 701 and 681 B.C.
RE attorney retired. Now receive more interest income than dividends. Began investing in 1970s with RE, bonds and preferred stocks; shifting to dividend stocks in 2010, 11 & 12. No mutual funds. No longer use options. Average 1 hours/day researching (reading SA) where ever I am unless market is active ... then more. Enjoy other hobbies more than investing, but personal management is critical. I am envious of all you young DGIers because of the opportunities out there and your ability to access them via the internet, and evaluate them via your computers. Ever do a spreadsheet in pencil?
Lucas Wyrsch is a Networker, Enterprise Risk Management Consultant, Actuary,
He is a Member of the Board of Directors of Ravens Power AG, a company that offers sustainable, renewable and alternative energy solutions for all.
He animates the Swiss Business Club to introduce the concept of Swissness to the global online and social media community!
He administrates Future Power Generation, a think tank in geothermal energy in particular and all kinds of sustainable, alternative and renewable sources of energy in general.
He heads TGC Consultants, a risk management and marketing body to create sustainable long term business results!
Lucas Wyrsch is a life member of Black Stars at Ecademy where he coordinates mastermind groups in business administration.
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I've been an investor for 35 years, and while I haven't had the success of Warren Buffett, I've had better success than the average investor. In 2010 I had an epiphany, which I should have had sooner, that the United States was not going to make the tough choices and was going to keep spending itself into oblivion. So I started studying to determine what I needed to do to not only survive the coming crash, but profit from it. I think I have a pretty good handle on it now even though it's quite unpleasant to think about.
My biggest interests outside of investing are baseball, dogs, music and architecture.
I invest for a living. I like to collect data and graph it and analyze it. I learn math for fun.
I try not to become too attached to my ideas, so I like to imagine that my models of how the world works is populated by variables, not constants, that can change.
I believe that efficient economies are most productive and the most fertile ground for achievement for a people.
I focus much on cycles of various types, why they occur, their histories and the cycles most relevant to us now.
The most important non-religious book I've read is Strauss & Howe's The Fourth Turning, which may be more than 10 years old, but I had waited all my life for someone to write about generational cycles.