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A lifelong student of the markets, speculator, and investor, decades of experience have forged Adam into a hardcore contrarian. He believes in buying low when others are afraid, then later selling high when others are brave. He founded the financial-market research company Zeal LLC, and continues to write acclaimed weekly and monthly subscription newsletters.
Current vocation - low-level retail management (auto parts). College educated (English, math, CIS), oddly enough. Married, father of one. I am a DRIP investor only, and no longer 'trade'. Almost completely out of the market due to a entrepreneurial venture me and the love of my life are undertaking. What I've learned from 20+ years of investing is that there are few forces in the universe as powerful as compounding. That is the train I plan to ride to easy street.
Hobbies include carpentry (general construction all the way to finish work), computers, spreadsheeting (just about everything!), gardening, "fixing stuff", and doting on my wife.
Two dogs - a lab/rott mix, and a Karelian Bear Dog.
Love Tennessee after spending most of our lives in WI/IL. Never going back!
A grizzled veteran after 30 years of personal investing, I have strong personal interests and aptitude in economics, business analysis, technology and personal finance. I have experienced the lows of the 70s and 80s, and the highs of the 90s. After surviving the Great Recession, I have experienced almost every kind of market known to man, and have a plan on how to deal with the markets ups and downs. I believe "less is more" when it comes to government.
I currently have a 15 year mortgage on my home @ 3.75% with around 11 years left on it. My goal,and I know it's different than almost everyone else's ,is to have an Oz. of gold or 50 Oz. of Silver for each remaining month of the mortgage. That gives me some peace of mind,and I don't worry about daily fluctuations of the Precious metals prices. The good thing is that i'm working on both ends toward the middle and my break even point is not that far away. Sound crazy? I like the way it works at any rate.
FMI : 115 GLD is about $1200.00 spot gold price :)
1) This was a post I read on SA by another poster.It's concerning Inflation,Keynesian economics and governments that continue to fail the people.
Written by Kgroeppe :
" The Fed has engineered a 97% depreciation in our paper currency during its century of incompetence and fraud, i.e., it has defrauded the working class out of much of its hard-earned money. Since 1999 the process has accelerated with repeal of Glass-Steagall. How long will it take to go the rest of the way? When the Roman gold coin reached .5% Gold content, the empire collapsed, not only economically but also socially and politically. Many people who should know better believe that we can merely substitute another currency and be back in the race again. That is not the way it works.
When an economy collapses, there must be some entity to pay the bills. With a country like Argentina or Mexico, the big banks and the world economy take a hit, but it is small and causes no more than a blip in world economic activity. When an economy the size of ours collapses, it takes the whole world economy with it. With that goes the social and political structures also, because by that time the populace has completely lost confidence in everything, and does not know what to do.
So what can we do? One fact we do not normally learn in history classes is that when Rome "fell" it was followed by Persia, India, China and the Arab countries. Only one government did not follow suit - The Byzantine Empire. Why? Because around 1100 the Byzantine Emperor Alexios I Komnenos did something no other head of state in history has ever done. The Byzantine coinage had gone from gold to silver to copper to base metals with its accompanying inflation, such as we are seeing now. By this time Alexios was in power, and he must have seen what was going on in the world around him, and he restored 100% gold coinage. The Byzantine economy was restored to health and the Empire lasted another 350 years when it was conquered by the Turks.
Why can't we learn from Alexios? The change will involve some pain for everyone, but that is far better than what will happen otherwise. Do we want to leave behind us a healthy civilization ready to go another 1000 years, or do we want to leave only ruins? Time is running out, and that is one matter we cannot afford to put off.
If our civilization does collapse,we can count on from 200 to 500 years to restore some kind of order. Until then we will be more like Somalia than Zimbabwe, ruled by warlords. This is no scare tactic. This happened around 1200 B.C. and again after the demise of Rome. We have overly romanticized the "nobles" and "knights" of the Middle Ages, but closer study reveals that they were warlords with their armed retinues. Is this what we want our legacy to be? We can joke about it and make puns on Yellen's name (I certainly have done my share), but we need to abolish the Fed and come up with better economists than we have now advising the government. They are what I call fake economists, because they have mindlessly embraced Keynesian economics. John Maynard Keynes did not invent Keynesian economics; the Romans did, and look where it took them.
In 1835, Alexis de Tocqueville stated that the greatest threat to democracy was people voting themselves too many perks. We now know the truth in his statement, and it is time for us to adopt a more altruistic attitude, and admit that we have to pay for those perks, and begin to try to get this economy back on its feet. The past 6 years should have taught us an important lesson. If it hasn't, then we deserve whatever history has to dish out to us, and if we do not act now, that reckoning will be coming much sooner than we realize right now.
By the way, there is one economic lesson I can impart here, which has great pertinence in the here and now. We are told that inflation is running about 1.5%, but the figures used to compute this figure are selected. Inflation manifests in three ways:
A. increase in prices
B. decrease in quantity
C. decrease in quality
Have you looked at the size of the containers of food you buy in the grocery, or have you noticed the quality of cloth in your most recent clothing purchases?
Now you can decide how serious inflation is at present."
2.. When it comes to dealing with the government and particularly the present Obamacare TAX you to death administration,my favorite thought comes from Larry Gatlin of the Gatlin brothers. "You take your dog to a Veterinarian who also happens to be a Taxidermist ,no matter whether your dog gets better or not you will get your dog back" Gotta love the logic in that :)
3. A Collateralized Debt Object CDO is a perfect example of how bubbles occur.Gold may have paper bubbles created ,but Gold itself is not a bubble.If it reflects the market of paper trades that become bubbles ,it will be a safe haven in times of crisis .
.Paper trades of anything can be done in excess.That's my point plain and simple. Please read 'The Big Short' By Michael Lewis and you will realize how wrong the line of thinking of throwing money at investments can be.Anything can be a bad investment when taken to extreme., I wish we could all just see these type of so called investments for what they are. Paper trades are fine and serve a purpose ,if that is what you want . But it doesn't make Gold in your portfolio a bad idea ,all things in moderation .
The CDS http://thebea.st/10OOtSF market was a perfect example of an investment that was not suitable for people to be engaging in. Who knew what these things really were? In Lewis' book he points out many times how those making crazy profits off of these CDO and CDS transactions were the most blind because they didn't do their due diligence. Why should they ?They were making money with other peoples nest-eggs , and why rock the boat .
4.MONEY : What is it? Money must be a store of value, be fungible, be a unit of exchange, be portable, be durable, and be a unit of account. Fiat currency has all of these characteristics except one: It is not a store of value. The material it is made from is useless and it is no longer backed by gold. This makes it a currency, not money. Gold has always been money because it meets all of these parts of the definition and then some. It cannot be made nor destroyed. It retains its value and cannot be inflated. ALL fiat currencies go to zero eventually, gold and silver hold their value
Flat earthers(Global warming hoaxters) are usually unaware of this :
Isaiah 40:22 It is he that sitteth above the sphere of the earth, and the inhabitants thereof are as grasshoppers; that stretcheth out the heavens as a curtain, and spreadeth them out as a tent to dwell in;
Almost 700 years before Christ Isaiah wrote about the earth as being round (A sphere) not Flat.And many of the early scientist realized this Newton,Galileo.
The Book of Isaiah was written between 701 and 681 B.C.
Full-time Investor, and frequent speculator.
Focus on US Stocks and Real Estate.
Degree in Economics and Finance.
Over 35 years of economic analysis and active investing experience. Retired Financial Services CEO (company had $2 Billion in financial assets).
Macroeconomic conditions and cycle progression are the foundation of my investment strategy. I evaluate the macro trend, and then select investments that will benefit from that trend, shifting the mix as the cycle progresses. Earnings growth is the sustainable fuel for investment gains. So, I look to position my portfolio accordingly.
I stay fully invested during the rising tide of a growing economy. I use leverage until the expansion shows signs of constraints and exhaustion. Rising input costs (wages, materials, energy, interest rates) eventually squeeze corporate profits, making growth less feasible. When I see evidence of a coming recession combined with weakness in the market, I exit my equity positions, reduce my real estate holdings, and shift to the safety of cash and treasury bonds. After the market slides deeply, and after the panic reaches headline proportions, I begin to reinvest as I anticipate or see evidence of the market bottom. I successfully avoided the 2001-2002 and the 2008 bear markets, while being fully invested for the bull markets around those declines.
In prior cycles I purchased individual stocks. However, during this bull market I am making heavy use of ETFs (including Sector ETFs). This is much less work, but results in more average returns. I do purchase some individual company stocks when I think the company will perform better than the average in its industry sector. I do not sell short, and rarely use options.
My portfolio is about half market tracking. I also use sector rotation, selected specific companies, modest margin debt, and 3x leveraged ETFs, within the rising cycle trend to magnify and outperform the average trend. I also adjust the size of my market exposure based on market conditions, and historic patterns.
My gross investment asset allocation target is roughly 70% stock, and 30% real estate (rentals). Current Stock Portfolio Mix (Dec 2016): 46% Broad Market Tracking (VTI, SPY, RSP, QQQ, VB...),16% Homebuilders and related, 14% Consumer Discretionary (VCR), 9% Industrials (XLI), 05% Berkshire Hathaway, 10% all other. Margin Debt is about 2% of portfolio value. Total Market Leverage is 1.08x (down from 1.34x in 2014). No bonds, and cash is less than 2% of gross assets. Real Estate is Residential Rentals, mostly near the beach (average LTV is about 40%).
Over the past 35+ years of active investing in stocks and real estate, my investment returns have been significantly above the average return of the S&P 500 (largely due to market timing and leverage). Since October 2007, my Stock portfolio average total return has been about 15% per year, compounded. My Real Estate portfolio average total return has been about 8% per year for the same period. The S&P 500 average total return has been about 7% per year during the same period.
Mr. Hui has been involved in the equity markets since 1980, both on the buy side and the sell side. He is a CFA Charterholder, and has presented numerous papers to quantitative discussion groups (Sample topics include: How Global are Resource Sectors).
Doug Short is first-wave boomer with a lifelong interest in markets and the economy. His professional career had been a satisfying split between academia (English Professor at North Carolina State University) and Information technology (IBM and GSK).
Doug retired in 2006 to devote himself full-time to his dshort.com financial website. The domain has now been acquired by Advisor Perspectives, and Doug has been appointed the Vice President of Research.
Doug is especially interested in the economy, long-term market trends and behavioral finance.
Joseph has been an analyst, investor, and student of economic theory; money and banking; and statistical methods for evaluating and implementing risk/reward trading algorithms since 1972. Joseph is also an occasional contributor to financial publications and his essays are frequently cited by other financial websites and publications.
Since the end of the Great Recession, Joseph came to recognize that traditional methodologies for forecasting economic growth and investment asset pricing are no longer of value, and a broader understanding of the post Glass Steagall, financially engineered world that has driven markets and economies since the turn of the century is required today.
He has a good grasp of Shadow Banking, High Frequency Trading, and Dark Pools, and their impact on today’s markets. He has also spent considerable time understanding the new global paradigm of central bank involvement in experimental policy designed to better control economies.
Joseph doesn’t subscribe to a specific school of theory on economics. Rather, his thinking is based on a combination of the Classical School, the Austrian School, and the Keynesian School. He even sees the writings of Karl Marx as particularly instructive.
Joseph is particularly fond of the following quote from Albert Einstein and sees his own work as driven by that same passionate curiosity that Einstein refers to:
“I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious.”
Coming in a close second in terms of favorite quotes that express his views, Joseph embraces Lord Acton’s views expressed here:
“The danger is not that a particular class is unfit to govern.
Every class is unfit to govern."
I am a chemist by trade and an Austrian Economist by study and love discussing the capital markets and take a qualitative approach to global monetary trends and a technical, quantitative approach to trading. My current focus is on emerging markets of Southeast Asia as well as gold and strategic commodities.
Feel free to find me on:
As I said:
I discovered the Gospel in July 1979. It is worth trillions of economic dollars. It should be classified as "top secret" by the CIA. I should be awarded the Nobel Prize in economics.
A prior post.:
"John, the #'s (which represent AD), for the 3rd qtr. are 2x that of the 2nd qtr. And that's without extrapolation and assuming Vt remains constant (& Vt will rise). - 20 Jul 2016, 06:50 PM
Dr. Leland Pritchard (Ph.D, Economics, Chicago School -1933,MS, Statistics):
"You have a predictive device nobody has hit on yet" - 9/8/81
And “considering the distortions in the def. of M1a and the rapid increase in the currency component, the correlation of the time series is remarkable”
Today's BEA release: Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2016 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent.
I am going to change the world.
- Michel de Nostredame
In Cambridge economist, Alfred Marshall's "motives" for holding cash balances, or in this case not holding cash balances, the EXPECTATION, of a rise in the prices of things will induce a decrease in the demand for money (increase in Vt). It deals with the uncertainty which affects economic behavior, it "bridges the gaps of transition periods".
Dr. Chris Martenson is an independent economist and author of a popular website, ChrisMartenson.com. His Crash Course video series explores the intertwining significance of the “three E’s”—the economy, energy, and environment and offers articulate, dynamic insight into the workings of our monetary system.
Chris earned a PhD in neurotoxicology from Duke University, and an MBA from Cornell University. His background as an educator helps him animate complex material with wisdom and humor. A fellow of the Post Carbon Institute, Chris’s work has appeared on PBS and been cited by the Washington Post. He is a contributor to the Huffington Post and FinancialSense.com.
Chris is an accomplished presenter who has offered the Crash Course seminar all over the United States. The online course has been translated into several languages, and been viewed nearly a million times. His website offers ongoing commentary and rigorously factual analysis into financial and energy-related issues and events as they unfold.
I am a corporate, M&A, securities and private equity attorney (11 years of practice) in Philadelphia with a far greater passion for investing and finance that I've been developing since I was 16. I am working on shifting my career focus to align it with my passion.
I'm an asset manager at Hebba Alternative Investments with a focus on real assets. In my articles I like to focus on events that affect the macro environment for assets (especially gold and silver), and also introduce readers to different metrics that I believe are under-utilized when assessing investments.
On a more personal note, I'm a firm believer that there can be honesty, morality, and integrity in finance (though its rare) and i'd like to believe that I stick to those principles. Thus I never "pump and dump" stocks, I always list the securities we own, and I take it very seriously when I recommend a company - I do not want to see any investors/readers lose money because of my recommendations.
I'm not always right with recommendations, but investors and readers can know that I always tell the truth (there is no deception) and I eat my own cooking as recommendations are either always owned OR the reason I dont own them is given (usually related to restrictions on stocks I can buy).
Advising people in financial matters is a serious issue and integrity is much more important than money to me, but I do believe both can co-exist. You live with money, but after your death you only have your morality and integrity and thus i've made my choice between the two. A bit philosophical for a bio, but I dont think there's a better way to give investors my background than that.
We offer investors a free weekly email list detailing gold, silver, and general economic markets which you can sign up for at: http://www.communitysynergy.com/subscribe/hebbainvestments_subscribe.html
Investor, Entrepreneur, Financial Historian, Austrian School Economist, Investment Analyst, and Contrarian. Co-founded the investor education, financial education and consulting company, Wall St for Main St, LLC in 2009. I've taught beginners how to invest and also consulted for high net worth individuals worth 6-8 figures helping teach them how markets are changing. Became interested in the stock market and investing after the 2008 crash. Woke up then started taking back control of my financial freedom. I've read over 100 books on investing, entrepreneurship, etc and also increased my financial education through thousands of articles, thousands of podcasts and over 100 documentaries. Over 10,000 hours of market research. I more than tripled my investing capital while I learned how to invest and I've made 10 times my money on some stocks in my young career. Double major in history and political science from Virginia Tech. Law school and MBA program drop out. Learned investing after college without having to unlearn Keynesian Economics and other bad academic theories that don't work in the real world.
I've also interviewed and argued with hundreds of big name investors like Jim Rogers, Dr. Marc Faber, Rick Rule, Ross Beaty, Doug Casey, Vitaliy Katsenelson, David McAlvany, Todd Harrison, etc on Wall St for Main St podcasts.
I've worked in the past as an IAR/RIA (fancy name for a stock broker) at a very large retail firm and as a full time investment analyst at a well known paid newsletter company for retail investors for my day job.
Editor for The Biotech Forum (www.biotechforumsa.com), the #2 subscribed to Marketplace investment service offered through SeekingAlpha. Top 5% ranked analyst (TipRanks) 2013 through first half of 2015. Daily contributor for Real Money Pro. Hedge fund manager from 2008 to 2011. Previously technology executive at Fortune 100 firm for a decade. For Free weekly investment reports on small, attractive biotech stocks just register at www.bretjenseninvests.com
Methodology: setups require certain criteria to be met before trades can be executed, which include weighted statistical studies on several indicators of price, breadth, volume, and sentiment . Amount of risk taken is proportional to how many indicators are aligned. I mainly trade market indexes, to a much lesser extent commodities, currencies, very rarely individual stocks, and always with defined risk.
MBA with a concentration in finance, The State University of New York. BS in management, concentrations in accounting, and finance. Chartered Market Technician candidate (all exams passed). +6 years professional trading experience.
Publishing Schedule for 2013: A long term update will be put out on the first of the month discussing the long term trend and long term indicators. Short term updates will be published on Mondays and Wednesday discussing the short term indicators and price action. A short comment will be published on Tuesdays and Thursdays. Friday's will have a short market update, as well as a full sentiment update and review for the week.
Value Digger holds MSc. in Electrical Engineering, speaks four languages and has lived in the U.S. for many years. Also, he is a full-time investor and a freelance writer with one of the highest Followers per Article (F/A) rates in Seeking Alpha. His F/A rate in Seeking Alpha is above 30.
After creating "Nathan's Bulletin" (a subscription-based investment guide for investors who can't afford a financial advisor), Value Digger launched a subscription-based Premium Service in Seeking Alpha entitled "A Fundamental Investor's Stock Club" which includes an unparalleled, actively-managed and high-return Portfolio of unknown and/or underfollowed stocks. Regularly updated and detailed lists in his Premium Posts PROVE these high returns. For reference, when Value Digger was managing money in the early 2000s, his Portfolio's annual ROI consistently exceeded 50%. His Premium Research is based on a comprehensive review of company-specific factors, macro conditions, competitors and the industry trends.
When it comes to his publicly-available picks and his free Seeking Alpha articles, Value Digger is ranked in the TOP-50 with a success rate of over 70%, an average return per recommendation of over 20% and a 5-star rating according to TipRanks.com, which is the highest category quality ranking used to evaluate financial experts. TipRanks.com is a comprehensive investing tool that allows private investors and day traders to see the measured performance of anyone who publicly provides financial advice. TipRanks.com collects data, evaluates and ranks 9,000 financial experts worldwide.
After almost 30 years of investing experience in the international markets (U.S., Canada, Australia, Europe), Value Digger has formulated a deep understanding of valuation analysis and his investment philosophy is firmly grounded in Ben Graham-style value-oriented opportunities that often have an assymetric risk/reward profile. On that front, he has created a unique proprietary database with thousands of publicly-traded companies per sector, which helps him spot the bargains and the bubbles before many investors find them.
I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time spent here is to give all a formula for a well rounded view of fellow investors ideas and recommendations.
My goal is to have posters and investors educate one another so that eventually everyone has the opportunity to make money !! We should all have that same end game. Put the daily noise aside and think "outside the box" !!
I find investments are very different and difficult in these extremely Interesting Times!! We hear whispers of manipulation. QE'S that have never been done before. Then we have a template experiment in Cyprus to see the worlds reaction. I just ask everyone to sit back and ask themselves " 10 years ago would we even have thought a Cyprus could occur? "
Tossing ideas around is always fun....Authors posting their links on our blog is welcomed as well. Newbies with questions are urged to post. Either you learn from the answers or have asked a question no one has thought of . Either way that is EDUCATING !!
So feel free to join us !!
Michael Ashton has been a recognized leader in developing the U.S. inflation derivatives market. He traded the first interbank U.S. CPI swaps in 2003 and, as a dealer, was a primary liquidity-provider in that market for two large banks. He represented about one-third of interbank swaps volume during his tenures at those firms. He invented and was the sole market-maker for the CME CPI Futures contract. He has written and spoken extensively about the use of inflation-indexed products for hedging real exposures, and has written more broadly in a commentary format about the rates markets and macroeconomy. Mr. Ashton is currently the managing principal at Enduring Investments LLC. His comments on this site and others are not posted in that role, and no opinions of his should be construed to be recommendations of or to reflect the views of his employer. He recently published "What's Wrong With Money? The Biggest Bubble of All."
I am the Chief of Operations at Wolfram Solutions, the consulting arm of the large privately held software company, Wolfram Research. I manage teams of programmers developing custom applications for business and, government, applying advanced analytic methods to practical challenges. I played a major role in the development of many of the financial features of Mathematica and Wolfram|Alpha. I have been at Wolfram for over 15 years. My academic background is in the social sciences and analytic methods in the social sciences, including finance, economics, statistics, modeling, simulation, and operations research. I studied at the University of Chicago, both undergrad and grad. I am also an individual investor with 30 years experience, mostly using mutual funds and fundamental analysis, plus specific investments in the financial sector. My contributions on Seeking Alpha focus on the financial sector and monetary economics, and what analysis of those areas can tell us about other macro trends. I also discuss portfolio theory, formal methods in finance, modeling and simulation of financial prices and economic time series, government statistical releases, financial regulation, and monetary policy.
Roger Erickson, PhD Neurophysiology
Interests - scalable systems methodology allowing use of emerging component capabilities