benesposito's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/91228/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/176918-the-gold-standard-still-unworkable-in-the-long-run?source=feed#comment-794493 794493 Mon, 07 Dec 2009 12:48:52 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/176918-the-gold-standard-still-unworkable-in-the-long-run?source=feed#comment-794491 794491 Mon, 07 Dec 2009 12:48:19 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/173562-banning-derivatives-and-other-such-foolishness?source=feed#comment-762231 762231
I mean its not like if you made a giant network of these things and one of the major nodes ceased to exist that it would wipe out more wealth than the exchanged assumption of unfunded liabilities generated right?

I mean clearly AIG has shown us that. They could have failed without any kind of bailout, and we would have been way better off as a whole than the slower growth we would have had without derivatives for the last twenty years.

Only an idiotic politican could think that maybe instead of charging each other fees for trading unfunded liabilities we might just, oh i don't know, accept slower growth?]]> Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:36:01 -0500
I mean its not like if you made a giant network of these things and one of the major nodes ceased to exist that it would wipe out more wealth than the exchanged assumption of unfunded liabilities generated right?

I mean clearly AIG has shown us that. They could have failed without any kind of bailout, and we would have been way better off as a whole than the slower growth we would have had without derivatives for the last twenty years.

Only an idiotic politican could think that maybe instead of charging each other fees for trading unfunded liabilities we might just, oh i don't know, accept slower growth?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106059-is-hyperinflation-on-the-horizon?source=feed#comment-305882 305882 Fri, 14 Nov 2008 08:22:03 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/49911-1987-crash-20th-anniversary-of-black-monday?source=feed#comment-98711 98711 Mon, 15 Oct 2007 13:35:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/49613-the-realities-of-2-inflation?source=feed#comment-98350 98350 Thu, 11 Oct 2007 09:27:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/48702-inflation-statistics-can-deceive-you-don-t-trust-them?source=feed#comment-97442 97442 Tue, 02 Oct 2007 14:01:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/43679-no-pain-no-gain-the-price-of-avoiding-a-recession?source=feed#comment-93045 93045 Tue, 07 Aug 2007 09:11:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/42686-should-we-beware-the-hindenberg-omen?source=feed#comment-92289 92289 Fri, 27 Jul 2007 11:18:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/41848-comparing-markets-in-1987-and-today-investors-are-now-better-protected?source=feed#comment-91910 91910
Given that things remain that way. What happens if we see:

a) U.S. inflation rising
b) the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates
c) bond rates spiking

Because a) will lead to b) which can lead to c)
But just the market believing b) will come can cause c) and that seems possible in the future, given the fed's steady message on their primary concern, and the declining purchasing power of the USD.]]> Mon, 23 Jul 2007 10:20:06 -0400
Given that things remain that way. What happens if we see:

a) U.S. inflation rising
b) the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates
c) bond rates spiking

Because a) will lead to b) which can lead to c)
But just the market believing b) will come can cause c) and that seems possible in the future, given the fed's steady message on their primary concern, and the declining purchasing power of the USD.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/39965-what-s-behind-the-coming-market-crash?source=feed#comment-90264 90264 Tue, 03 Jul 2007 10:37:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/39645-more-market-worries-the-only-three-questions-that-count?source=feed#comment-89915 89915
So yes, they may be fully discounted. IF everything turns for the positive. And no, they aren't fully discounted if these particular problems lead to new problems. WHICH THEY HAVE BEEN. i.e. Subprime -> Hedge Fund -> who knows?

So the meaningful point is, do the problems continue to spread. The current trend indicates yes, but who knows? Maybe a month from now your telling us how everyone keeps talking about the Alt-A meltdown, so therefore, we're at a bottom.]]> Thu, 28 Jun 2007 13:28:31 -0400
So yes, they may be fully discounted. IF everything turns for the positive. And no, they aren't fully discounted if these particular problems lead to new problems. WHICH THEY HAVE BEEN. i.e. Subprime -> Hedge Fund -> who knows?

So the meaningful point is, do the problems continue to spread. The current trend indicates yes, but who knows? Maybe a month from now your telling us how everyone keeps talking about the Alt-A meltdown, so therefore, we're at a bottom.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/39665-tops-and-bottoms-reflections-and-predictions?source=feed#comment-89895 89895
"Right . . . smells like a bottom to me.

Is it today? Tomorrow? Next month? Who knows, but it is near."

I happen to think your argument about the subprime talk would be more akin to saying something like "stay out of fiber optic companies, but invest in other tech stocks" back in the .dom bubble.

I read recently that a poll conducted by the Boston Consulting Group showed 55 percent of Americans believe they could sell their house for more money now than a year ago.

Yet the trend shows increasing inventories of homes, and fewer potential buyers (mortgages becoming harder to obtain). While at the same time huge numbers of ARM loans are resetting.

So when the polls reflect the reality, and people all feel housing is a disaster (as it is for the builder's right now), then your logic might call for the actual bottom. In a year or two.

However, that said, your suggested investments get their value based upon homes being built, and if people thikning housing is a disaster, it may be longer from that contrarian indicator until the point when construction would actually pick up.]]> Thu, 28 Jun 2007 11:03:21 -0400
"Right . . . smells like a bottom to me.

Is it today? Tomorrow? Next month? Who knows, but it is near."

I happen to think your argument about the subprime talk would be more akin to saying something like "stay out of fiber optic companies, but invest in other tech stocks" back in the .dom bubble.

I read recently that a poll conducted by the Boston Consulting Group showed 55 percent of Americans believe they could sell their house for more money now than a year ago.

Yet the trend shows increasing inventories of homes, and fewer potential buyers (mortgages becoming harder to obtain). While at the same time huge numbers of ARM loans are resetting.

So when the polls reflect the reality, and people all feel housing is a disaster (as it is for the builder's right now), then your logic might call for the actual bottom. In a year or two.

However, that said, your suggested investments get their value based upon homes being built, and if people thikning housing is a disaster, it may be longer from that contrarian indicator until the point when construction would actually pick up.]]>