commodity currencies can do extreme things so calling a bottom to the Aussie is extremely risky, whatever China growth is, as you say the main driver is the USD appreciation, so you should be more consistent Mathew. remember 0.62 in 2009? Hopefully not the bottom this time but too volatile for my stomach. Long YENUSD@ 100 and happy, but ready to jump off anytime if they go Willie Coyote again. They wont.
Peter Schiff Has It Totally Backwards - Gold Is Not Going 'To The Moon' [View article]
there are different reasons for interest rates to go up: if the central banker does it to stop runaway inflation probably you can expect the demand for gold will fall as you will prefer to get some interest for your savings, but this is not the situation now, if interest rates goes up now is because USTBs holders are losing their confidence in the currency and/or in the repayment of the capital invested and this can be good news for any hard asset keeping their value when a currency is devaluated.
Dr. Doom Has Gold Going Below $1,000: Why His Thesis Is Spot On [View article]
gold will go wherever their stockholders want to send it. main representatives of gold owners are the bullion banks. We do have a window to their plans via US CFTC COMEX COT, not much from UK LME http://bit.ly/11iWX4a and less from Asia markets, not to mention the industry related "councils". If we believe the COT positions represents the "gold market" (I dont think is a market in the strict sense of what a market is) then the gold cartel is now net short around 180 tonnes of paper gold, so I might agree with you both, but be careful when the net position be in the long. The masters of the universe have been "deleveraging" their gold liabilities in great style, making a lot of bucks in the way down.
The dollar (UUP, UND) could be entering the end of a 10-year downtrend, says Nomura's Jens Nordvig. We've gotten used to the greenback rallying during panics, but of late the dollar's headed higher for maybe other reasons - better relative economic performance, an improving trade deficit, even a smaller budget shortfall. "This is the type of shift that is just starting," he says. "It can be a multi-year phenomenon." [View news story]
only sustainable if the Washington Consensus goes to Washington. This is the "lowest common denominator of policy advice" being addressed by the Washington-based institutions to Latin American countries in 1989: •Fiscal discipline •A redirection of public expenditure priorities toward fields offering both high economic returns and the potential to improve income distribution, such as primary health care, primary education, and infrastructure •Tax reform (to lower marginal rates and broaden the tax base) •Interest rate liberalization •A competitive exchange rate •Trade liberalization •Liberalization of inflows of foreign direct investment •Privatization •Deregulation (to abolish barriers to entry and exit) •Secure property rights
We're Just At The Tip Of The Iceberg, Triple Net REITs Will Soon Be A Glacier Sector [View article]
interesting, probably good picks for the next US liquidity squeeze: REITs used to bve the iceberg, the Titanic was the US economy. From my point of view a good mix of sovereign bonds from oil producing countries and some PMs had been making a more stable yield. Always open to new things, at the right liquidity time of course. Keep writing.
A False Dawn In The Land Of The Rising Sun [View article]
Ageing population not a big deal as nobody is planning to invest in Japan, not even the Japanese: is a fact that most of new Japanese factory capacity is in China and a little bit in ASEAN (90-10 more or less). Even when no many talk about it, Japan is the place where most wealthy Chinese people buy residences. The idea of living from the rent of your capital invested in your neighbours when you are getting old is the plan. Hope it works for Japan. Time will pass and Asia will be more integrated and neighbours will be more friendly, as in the EU in the last 50 years. Maybe the end in a similar mess but not before 2050! What is clear to me is that more and more foreigners, in particular Chinese, will buy Japanese assets (houses, etc.) looks like this is the real plan, and you will not want to destroy you in the neighbour country, do you? So peace and love for all. Southern EU eventually will do the same, just needs two different Euros: soon in your screen!
a crash in the stock market is not that bad as a massive crash in the currency. The Japanese are old and rich, lucky them. China still trying to find a dream, but looks like a nightmare of overcapacity and empty factories, not driven by market forces, but for a group of old fashion but increasingly rich industrialists dressing blue. Time is coming to return the factories to the population via stocks ownership: Mao style redistribution, but as usually happens, guess who will get the cheap state owned factories...
Treasury yields continue to climb following the hawkish interpretation of Bernanke and FOMC minutes, the 10-year up 9 bps to 2.02% and within 6 bps of the YTD high of 2.08%. Yields will fluctuate at the long end, but the middle is moving as well, the 5-year up 7 bps to 0.89% - quite a spike for an instrument yielding so little. The IEI - which owns 3-7 year Treasury paper slides 0.3% to just about a 52-week low. The long-term TLT falls 1.4%. [View news story]
the ball is in Japanese field now: the sale of the JGBs will be epic and may create a mega bubble, producing a currency hara-kiri that may make them to invest their capital even in the Antarctic. These fed speeches is just to make time for Japan to deliver.
Excellent overview Eric, maybe is the Japan syndrome now: may you hold a depreciating sovereign bond in yen until aturity now? When the sovereigns be sold by the pension funds, how Japan they will avoid a massive crash on the value of the yen? Domestic inflation may go beyond control so they will need to reverse. When this happens I think the end of the party for SPY and even precious may suffer.
Up as high as $1,413 following Bernanke's (at the time) perceived dovish testimony this morning, gold (GLD -0.9%) reverses along with stocks. Markets make opinions, and now the focus on Bernanke is he's prepping the markets for tapering. The just-released FOMC minutes push down gold even further, now at $1,357/oz. [View news story]
I could "step down" my precious, but I might surprise them all and hoarding a lot more. Even I may borrow some JGBs, get some yen loans and why not a new jet and boat and more diamonds for the girls. What else can I say, thanks Ben !
Aussie Dollar - Oye, Oye, Oye [View article]
Peter Schiff Has It Totally Backwards - Gold Is Not Going 'To The Moon' [View article]
Dr. Doom Has Gold Going Below $1,000: Why His Thesis Is Spot On [View article]
The Time To Short U.S. Bonds Is Now [View article]
The dollar (UUP, UND) could be entering the end of a 10-year downtrend, says Nomura's Jens Nordvig. We've gotten used to the greenback rallying during panics, but of late the dollar's headed higher for maybe other reasons - better relative economic performance, an improving trade deficit, even a smaller budget shortfall. "This is the type of shift that is just starting," he says. "It can be a multi-year phenomenon." [View news story]
•Fiscal discipline
•A redirection of public expenditure priorities toward fields offering both high economic returns and the potential to improve income distribution, such as primary health care, primary education, and infrastructure
•Tax reform (to lower marginal rates and broaden the tax base)
•Interest rate liberalization
•A competitive exchange rate
•Trade liberalization
•Liberalization of inflows of foreign direct investment
•Privatization
•Deregulation (to abolish barriers to entry and exit)
•Secure property rights
We're Just At The Tip Of The Iceberg, Triple Net REITs Will Soon Be A Glacier Sector [View article]
REITs used to bve the iceberg, the Titanic was the US economy.
From my point of view a good mix of sovereign bonds from oil producing countries and some PMs had been making a more stable yield. Always open to new things, at the right liquidity time of course. Keep writing.
A False Dawn In The Land Of The Rising Sun [View article]
Maybe the end in a similar mess but not before 2050! What is clear to me is that more and more foreigners, in particular Chinese, will buy Japanese assets (houses, etc.) looks like this is the real plan, and you will not want to destroy you in the neighbour country, do you? So peace and love for all. Southern EU eventually will do the same, just needs two different Euros: soon in your screen!
Replacing Turquoise Hill With First Quantum Minerals [View article]
you are betting all will be fine there,
hope you do very well, good luck !
Fed Tapering And The U.S. Dollar [View article]
Japan's Decline Is Elementary [View article]
Treasury yields continue to climb following the hawkish interpretation of Bernanke and FOMC minutes, the 10-year up 9 bps to 2.02% and within 6 bps of the YTD high of 2.08%. Yields will fluctuate at the long end, but the middle is moving as well, the 5-year up 7 bps to 0.89% - quite a spike for an instrument yielding so little. The IEI - which owns 3-7 year Treasury paper slides 0.3% to just about a 52-week low. The long-term TLT falls 1.4%. [View news story]
The China Syndrome [View article]
Domestic inflation may go beyond control so they will need to reverse. When this happens I think the end of the party for SPY and even precious may suffer.
Up as high as $1,413 following Bernanke's (at the time) perceived dovish testimony this morning, gold (GLD -0.9%) reverses along with stocks. Markets make opinions, and now the focus on Bernanke is he's prepping the markets for tapering. The just-released FOMC minutes push down gold even further, now at $1,357/oz. [View news story]
Expanding Economy? Consider Adding Copper To Your Portfolio [View article]
Rio Tinto Getting Lean And Mean As First Oyu Tolgoi Shipments Approach [View article]