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phdinsuntanning

phdinsuntanning
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  • Global Physical Gold Demand Rises 21%, Although ETF Outflows Create Net Decline [View article]
    what the World Gold Council will never tell you is that China buys gold raw materials and sells jewelry like crazy, including gold exports of around 40% of imports. Most of the developing world, starting with China face official inflation rates of 3% of more, this is 6% or more in the ex-Central Banks real world food and energy inflation. "Emerged countries", mainly aging people with no much kids and full of debts, same as their governments that now are planning to avoid any bank bondholder subsidy or even bank depositors rescue. So no way they will run to buy gold with their savngs. China┬┤s internal debt jumped to more than 200% of the GDP to keep the system working in 2009-2012, so no way their banks will recover the loaned money, usually to a cousin in the local construction firm via the regional State bank, and even lower chance that the greedy ones that invested their savings in "wealth management products" promises of 12% return a year forever (read Chinese sub prime debt) get their money back anytime. In summary, a chance of a "cash landing" in Asia, so fasten your seat belts. In this case there will be better chances to buy metal, just not now but when t.sht.hts.t.fn.as it did in March 2009, if (and only if) someone has the guts to fight the scary Asian shadow banking system from the inside. These guys charge you 30%-50% a year for a short term loan, so they are a real systemic risk. But it wont be easy to get rid of them as now they are billionaires that sit at the top and rule the place with their nice blue suits, hairy gel, Bentleys, red carpets and flowers. So my two cents that they will find an elegant way to snake out of this one and will send regards from the British Virgin Islands or their new village in Sidney. In this case they might need some gold to leave the place, but do you think they just will give up without a fight? You might need the Nimitz to do that. The other place with a real potential for serious gold demand is families and corporations in Japan: the guy in charge of the economy is doing harakiri and kamikaze at the same time with their savings, but the economy is shrinking anyway so it looks like a useless sacrifice.
    Feb 18, 2014. 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Setting Up For Another Fall [View article]
    Richard, good job, my two cents is there is only one way interest rates jump without a serious US economic recovery and there is no any, and is because of a bond sale off relative to a default or any confidence losing episode. You then you might miss some hard asset...
    Feb 12, 2014. 09:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Yellen Is Great For Gold [View article]
    the new head of the 4th most powerful central bank on earth after China, Japan and Germany meets the congress, as an outcome the currency she is in charge to preserve is depreciated again gold. The best possible result indeed, only Mugabe or Chavez (RIP) might have done better!
    Feb 12, 2014. 03:34 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ConocoPhillips: Showing Exxon And Chevron How To Run An Oil Company [View article]
    the run out of emerging markets and associated oil demand slowdown might drive COP to the USD 50 floor or below this year, maybe a good timing for you to remind us how good is this company Mr.Ftz. Have a nice sale on the news.
    Feb 10, 2014. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • World Gold Council: 2013 Review And 2014 Outlook [View article]
    WGC copper supply industry lobby always forgets to discount the exports of Chinese gold, mainly value added jewelry that makes up to 50% of the so published raw imports. Besides the bias, a good tutti frutti of things here, for example mine supply expansions that does not make even 1% of the gold already available in stocks in "use" (mainly jewelry, ingots and coins) serving as only purpose a store of value for desperate times that sincerely I hope we will not face. Meanwhile the EU banking regulator calling to let weak banks fail looks to be attracting physical cash storage in Euro instead of PM. Interesting times!
    Feb 10, 2014. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who's To Blame For The Emerging-Market Crisis? [View article]
    or in a more simple language, the Japanese lemons ran out of juice to keep liquidity flowing to the USTB and EU public debt bond markets, inflation started to eat into the local japanese economy and they passed the stick to those EM places where the capital was flowing along successive QEs, so the money goes back home to sustain the DM imbalances one more year...
    Feb 7, 2014. 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious metals on the move as economy slumps [View news story]
    my two cents, Asian investors that moved their savings out of China, Japan to US tocks in 2013 are taking profits and returning to their safe haven au+ag!
    Feb 3, 2014. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who's To Blame For The Emerging-Market Crisis? [View article]
    maybe we need to refocus here: this is not just a crisis of a few emerging countries, except if you call countries like Australia and South Korea emerging economies, that they are not anymore. I think is just the consequence of higher and more volatile US treasury yields as US Fed bosses are swapped, and the one leaving wants to send a message that there will be some limit some day to the ongoing long term devaluation of the greenback to avoid a more radical event affecting the US dollar status... but the market reaction threats sinking some well know TBTF institutions, so is a trade-off now between saving the current power structure of these banks versus dumping the currency as has been since 2008. The most possible outcome is that the incoming US Fed lady will make us clear that is not possible to sustain both US financial system as it is, keeping at the same time a stable US currency anymore. So what will be her choice? saving the banks and dropping the currency as GS managers in charge of US Treasury did in 2009? I dont know, but the EMs and even Japan might drop more than a few USTBs this time if they feel threatened... in particular China as they feel more comfortable with their strong currency status and have diversified a lot their exports markets and assets out of US debt in the last 5 years. It promises to be a very interesting year of the Red Horse!
    Feb 3, 2014. 05:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turkey Is A Distraction Amid Much Bigger Potential Problems [View article]
    China rules the market places, from real estate in Australia to italian debt, they are the buyig force, and now they are all in winter holidays preparing for other good year, so buying the Chinese credit crisis history is not obvious for me...
    Jan 29, 2014. 11:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging market stocks enter bear market [View news story]
    there is nothing to worry about the "taper", the only way that US interest rates jump up is in the case of a massive sale of treasury bonds, and creditors China, Japan and Germany, and the main creditor Dr. Yellen none of them will sell right? so looks like an opportunity to go long some selected stressed EM assets to me. Just look a global corporation as Siemens earnings increasing significantly by 12% on organic basis growth all across the sectors and geographies. This was mainly due to a substantial increase of large and, in particular -- in part, multiyear orders in wind, transport and logistics. Key drivers were emerging markets growing 27% and accounting for 41% of the total order volume. China, for example, was up 23%, while emerging countries outside the BRICs delivered remarkable 40% orders growth !
    Jan 28, 2014. 05:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Junior Gold Miners: Is This The Wake Up After A Nightmare? [View article]
    prices can be below production costs for more than you imagine, supply shortage is not a factor when more of the supply does not need to be mined...
    Jan 28, 2014. 09:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Chinese Elephant In The Room [View article]
    China State Sate Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) reported yesterday that Chinese companies falsified $2.5 bln of foreign exchange transactions in the first eleven months of the year: 112 companies involved. So trade finance, or money in letters of credit that saw an increase in yuan use, is reflecting a disguised capital outflow out of China as "trade inflows" of gold and other commodities into China, with most of the yuan trade finance via Hong Kong and Singapore and via Chinese companies. So looks like financial capital is leaving China for some reason now... interestingly China Commerce Ministry announced today it was removing some controls on yuan investment, so approval for up to CNY300 million investment is no longer required and financial guarantees, financial leasing, small loan and auction industries are being lifted. Restrictions on investment in cement, steel, shipbuilding and refined aluminium also have been lifted. At the same time, foreign companies cannot use cross-border yuan to invest in Chinese securities, derivatives or used for trust lending, so metals remain the way to do it.. both sides...
    Dec 16, 2013. 03:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold ETP exodus fastest on record [View news story]
    China State Sate Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) reported today that Chinese companies falsified $2.5 bln of foreign exchange transactions in the first eleven months of the year: 112 companies involved. So trade finance, letters of credit that saw an increase in yuan use, is reflecting a disguised capital outflow out of China as "trade inflows" of gold and other commodities into China, with most of the yuan trade finance via Hong Kong and Singapore and via Chinese companies. So looks like financial capital is leaving China for some reason...
    Dec 16, 2013. 03:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Gold Imports From Hong Kong Surge To Over 130 Tonnes In October: No Bear Market For Gold In China [View article]
    This year you started paying 1.5 grams of gold per barrel of oil, and now you need almost 2.5 grams of gold to get the same oil, so oil is becoming much more expensive, probably countries are stockpiling oil for security reasons. Just look copper: it costed 1.4 Kg of gold to get a tonne of copper at the peak of Vietnam war, now is around 200 grams of gold...
    Dec 10, 2013. 06:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • UBS: Chinese gold demand to taper in 2014 [View news story]
    as always gold is highly correlated to the price of oil, but the really valid "price" to me is oil/gold, not the distorted US dollar, euro or appreciated yuans or devaluating yens or AUDs. Moving all distractors out, an oil barrel costed you as much as 4.5 grams of gold in the last decade because of booming China, but today an oil barrel cost you less than 2 grams of gold, and on average 2.5 grams per barrel in the long term, but very volatile in recent years. This year you started paying 1.5 grams of gold per barrel of oil, and now you need almost 2.5 grams of gold to get the same oil, so oil is becoming much more expensive this, and there is a reason: probably countries are stockpiling oil for security reasons. Just look copper: it costed 1.4 Kg of gold to get a tonne of copper at the peak of Vietnam war, now is around 200 grams of gold...


    Dec 10, 2013. 06:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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