phdinsuntanning

Why Are Investors Returning to the Dollar?

intelligent call,
cash is king, but the king is naked
your timing can be good ... or not ...
yen, swiss francs anyone?
I dont see them
falling vs the greenback.
Is 1982 Reaganomics again,
~but Ben guessing 1929...
my bet is 2009 = 1974
good luck

T. Boone Pickens' Stocks Struggle

long on the yen, short the rest

Not Calling Crude Oil Prices a Bubble For Now

PPT is buying oil too I think

Weekly Oil and Natural Gas Review

Speculation, Futures Prices, and the U.S. Real Price of Crude Oil
July 2, 2008

Abstract:
In this study, we examine the relationship between the U.S. real price of oil and factors that affect its movement over time: futures prices, the value of the dollar, exploration, demand, and supply. All of these variables are treated as jointly endogenous and a reduced form vector error correction model, testing for cointegration amongst the variables, is estimated. We find that for model specifications with short-term futures contracts, supply does indeed dominate price movements in the crude oil market. However, for specifications including longer-term contracts that are inherently more speculative, the real price of oil appears to be determined predominantly by the futures price. Moreover, there is empirical evidence of hoarding in the crude oil market: both oil stocks/inventories and futures prices are found to be positively cointegrated/correlate... with each other. From a policy perspective, the results of this analysis indicate that if regulators really wanted to limit speculation in the oil market, it should keep the shorter-term futures contracts and eliminate the more speculative six months futures contracts.

Burst Bubble? Commodities' Long-Term Story Remains Intact

look at the chinese demand david, this will be a good leading indicator for you and for many of us