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  • The Curious Case Of [View article]
    See today's new of a 15% stake sale....thoughts?
    Jun 9, 2015. 09:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Curious Case Of [View article]
    What do you attribute the reason strength in the stock?

    This really is baffling.

    When do you expect licenses to be handed out?
    Jun 5, 2015. 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Curious Case Of [View article]
    @MNS @CVC

    Have you or anyone spoken Carson Block? He pitched WBAI short at the Value Investing Congress in 2014.

    Is there any third party data providers that can get edge on the process?

    Any rough idea of timing?
    May 26, 2015. 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Curious Case Of [View article]
    The only cogent and somewhat rational arguments I have heard are:

    1) Old CEO was connected to wrong people in government, and with him gone (he's Chairman, not gone) - WBAI may face less hostile political environment and have licensed approved.

    2) A lot of the flow coming from overseas China investors - potentially for a way to delist and move to A shares. There's no precedent for this, and any merger with A-share company would mean current ADR investors in US can't accept their stock - but the promise of this...A shares trade at far higher multiple.
    May 22, 2015. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: A Streaming Buy With 55% Upside [View article]
    Eric - Do you still follow this one? Do you have an updated for this quarter?

    I love that content amort cost vs ARPU chart - do you have it updated?
    Apr 9, 2015. 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: A Streaming Buy With 55% Upside [View article]
    Do you have an updated chart for the ARPU vs Content Amort Per User? Does is make sense to look at this from a US, and then an Int'l perspective? Any updated thoughts post earnings?
    Jan 26, 2015. 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NeuStar Is Still A Controversial Name But Clarity Is Coming Eventually [View article]
    Is anyone still following this name? I am concerned that NSR will trip their covenants once the lost the NPAC contract. Currently, they are ~1.4x net leverage and have a 2.5x leverage covenant.

    It is also likely their stop buying back shares if NPAC is gone. Frankly, I am surprised the stock has been holding up so well.

    Has anyone looked at the Moody's downgrade?

    From 10-Q:
    On June 17, 2014, Moody's downgraded our corporate credit rating due to an increase in perceived NPAC-related business risk. In particular, our corporate family rating was lowered from Ba2 to Ba3, our 2013 Term Facility rating was lowered from Ba1 to Ba2, and our Senior Notes rating was lowered from Ba3 to B2. Downgrades in our credit ratings do not accelerate the scheduled maturity dates of our debt, or affect the interest rates charged on any of our debt, our debt covenant requirements, or cause any other operating issue. We believe this downgrade will not have a significant impact on our operating results; however, if our credit ratings were to be further downgraded, our access to, and cost of, debt financing may be negatively impacted.

    Further, we continued to execute our capital allocation strategy through share repurchases. During the quarter, we purchased approximately 3.7 million shares of our common stock at an average price of $26.48 per share for a total of $99.1 million. As a result of these repurchases, we have approximately $58.8 million remaining capacity under our $200 million share repurchase plan as of June 30, 2014.
    Aug 29, 2014. 02:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall, Inc: An Attractive Out Of Favor Business [View article]
    I recently met with BrightStar (acq'd by Softbank) - they said EIP have already shifted over half the trade-ins back to the carriers since implemented just a few months ago, and expects this to continue. Also, the vast majority of the value in the electronics foodchain belongs to Apple products. Effectively this reduces the non-carrier TAM by a significant amount - rendering the efforts by ecoATM and others 'too little, too late' - I would be surprised if the company could sell this biz for what they paid for it.

    At ~$60/sh - a lot more has to go right than wrong, and still upside is not more than high $60s in my opinion. OUTR simply has VERY few levers left to pull. This is a retail company, and there's very little they can do to mitigate 'same store sales' declines' (revs/kiosks) - after a period of stability off of weak comps - this has accelerated to high-teens.

    All the studio renegotiations are next year - they have OK relations with 1-2 of the studios, but most of the majors are not fans of Redbox - and I believe will extract better terms. Put another way, the studios have always negotiated better terms not worse in the past.

    OUTR has looked at PE previously, but there hasn't been a ton of interest - and they have basically done all the things PE would do.
    Aug 23, 2014. 04:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall, Inc: An Attractive Out Of Favor Business [View article]
    Recent post from a value investment blog:

    JANA PARTNERS has exited their ENTIRE position in OUTR according to the latest 13F – selling down their entire stake in two quarters.

    What we can agree on is that the stock is optically cheap. The stock just had one of its worst quarters in recent memory and guided down for the year - yet the stock bounced from ~$53/sh to over ~$60/sh in a terrible tape. It does seem like some folks are accumulating the stock – though not sure OUTR is a stock you go to ‘war’ with.

    I am hoping to have a constructive conversation - here's what else I think everyone will agree on:

    -Revs/kiosk declines have accelerated unexplainably (some perhaps can be attributed a weaker box office - somewhat well-known). I understand that although moving towards a buggy-whip biz – Redbox offers a cheaper DVD offer and certain demographics/price-sen... consumers will prefer RB for just-release/day-and-date films.

    -JANA implemented a ROE-focused capital plan at OUTR: cut costs, levered up, bought back stock – this has already occurred and JANA is now completely out of the position.

    -Redbox DVD rental continues to be in secular decline AND Redbox is now the vast majority of DVD rentals in the US. DVD market is shrinking ~12-15%/year but accelerating.

    -ecoATM is well behind schedule, and now carriers have moved to installment plans on handsets – significantly shrinking ecoATM’s addressable market. GME, AMZN and others are all in this space as well.

    -As EBITDA shinks, it will be a lot more difficult for OUTR to buy-back stock while leverage increases (~2x leverage now). OUTR sports a low-teens FCF yield, but it has never garnered a multiple.

    In addition, OUTR has to renegotiate every studio deal next year – while they are the biggest house on a crappy block, I don’t think they get a better deal from most of the studios.
    Aug 18, 2014. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • World Wrestling Entertainment: Why Investors Should Stay Away [View article]
    Eminence Capital (Ricky Sandler) recently initiated a 9.6% passive stake in WWE. They are not known for their activist investing, so wondering what value they are seeing and/or what the thesis is.
    Aug 18, 2014. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Add NII Holdings (NIHD) to the list of carriers getting a boost from the AT&T/Leap Wireless deal. Shares of the volatile and well-shorted Latin American carrier are up 6.2% AH. Also, Dish Network (DISH), long a subject of AT&T buyout speculation, is up 1.5%[View news story]
    $NIHD will sell some towers first, then Nextel Argentina. As we've seen time and time again, subscale carriers with strong spectrum positions will be acquired. $NIHD benefits from a high-value subscriber base that many will covet.
    Jul 14, 2013. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IDT: Despite Significant Gains, Even More Undervalued After Recent Earnings [View article]
    Any idea why the stock is down 5% now?
    Jun 17, 2013. 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment