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Cato the Elder

Cato the Elder
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  • Short Squeeze: Lightstream Covers 17% Production Growth Plus Dividend [View article]
    Just FYI, River: Costa Rica is now charging foreign residents for their national health insurance program...It's a global tax--based on worldwide income.

    Premium costs are rising 10% a year....And nobody with any sense goes to the public hospitals under which you'd be covered...You go to a private hospital and pay out of pocket if you're really sick.

    Consider carefully what you're doing when you give up US citizenship...It's not required to live there...You can even hold dual citizenship...But are you sure you want to pay taxes for two governments?

    CR citizens get whacked with a 25% tax rate on incomes over 1500 dollars a month--last I checked....And it gets considerably worse from there.

    Why not just live there as a tourist?...Leave the country every 3 months for 3 days and your visa never expires.,,And you can still own property there or set up a corporation to hold it for you.
    Nov 19, 2013. 01:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Squeeze: Lightstream Covers 17% Production Growth Plus Dividend [View article]
    Not sure I understand you, Steve...My Roth gets the full 8 cent per share monthly distribution--like clockwork...But at these ridiculous prices--it makes sense to DRIP out the dividend and cost average the price plunge having bought in from 7 to 8 bucks a share.

    It's long term money--so I don't sweat the swings...We're never going to replace oil in the next 10 years--barring some major technological breakthrough.

    But the Canadian government hasn't gotten a dime from me--as far as I can tell....What am I missing?
    Nov 14, 2013. 09:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Determined To Taper [View article]
    Scott: Your numbers do make a very strong case. You've definitely got me worried...But I'm wondering if Uncle Ben isn't bluffing about tapering this year since he's basically on the outs come January. That's a parting shot that he could be reviled for if it causes a sudden skid to growth.

    Now, I'm guessing the more liberal Yellen gets the nod. But even if it's Larry Summers; would he really want to steal their thunder or cramp their style with a premature rate hike?

    And do you think Bernanke would taper over their objections--if he had advance knowledge of the next Fed Chairman coming at us?
    Aug 23, 2013. 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • To Taper, Or Not To Taper [View article]
    "I believe that the Federal Reserve will taper its purchases in January 2013 at the earliest."

    You may want to correct this typo, Will. That said, I like the way you think.

    BTW: I was planning to buy a home by the end of this year...Are current mortgage rates at 3.75 to 4% the best we'll likely see or might a slight dip be in the cards with a renewed Fed commitment to QE?

    Anything substantially over 4% by December would definitely force me to consider breaking my current lease and taking the penalty. What say you?
    Jun 16, 2013. 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp Up On 'Takeover Rumor' And Irrational Exuberance [View article]
    I can't argue with success...Anybody that hits a 5 bagger nowadays is doing just fine...But you may be overlooking Lynas Corp's enormous Mount Weld deposit...In fact, I suspect that's why REE prices have bottomed out despite China's cutbacks to exports...Everyone's thinks the market will be flooded for the foreseeable future...
    Jan 18, 2013. 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why Molycorp Will Not Be Acquired [View article]
    Long term, I think Molycorp is a great buy. Once the economy recovers prices for rare earths should pick up. Once China has real competitors in the market for REEs--watch them suddenly band together to lift prices to restore order and stability and maintain profitability.

    As far as acquisitions go, I don't know why you'd consider only mining firms...Berkshire Hathaway could buy this company with Warren Buffet's lunch money.

    Only short term speculators need fear the volatility. Long term investors had a great price point at 10 bucks a share...And if it ever goes much lower, I'll consider adding to my holdings. Because time is on your side with a niche company like this. They're just getting back into the game of mining rare earth in North America. And so far, they're on track to meet their production goals.
    Sep 28, 2012. 02:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Kodiak Is A Steal At $9 [View article]
    Chuck: I'm jealous...Wish I still owned a ton of KOG...Got in @ 2.90 and sold a third @ 7.50 and another third @ 10.00....But I can't kick...Playing with house money is fun, too...I remain a long term believer in this company. I'll hang on to my remaining shares for 3-5 years just out of curiosity at this point.

    KOG knows their way around the Bakken...And as a potential takeover target--you could do a lot worse.
    Sep 6, 2012. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer Has Taken Note Of This $4 Oil Stock And It Might Be Poised To Double [View article]
    I can appreciate the skepticism about both Cramer's picks and the fact that MHR is a small cap stock sitting on an awful lot of low priced natural gas...But I do believe in Gary Evans...He's been down this road before with good results.

    I'm long MHR...My time horizon is 3 to 5 years....I figure it's bound to respond well when the economy recovers and our natural gas import terminals finally get refitted for export. Hey, 3 dollar per million BTU gas isn't going to last forever--not when it's selling for 12 to 14 bucks per million BTUs in Asia, today.

    But for a quick profit on MHR--you almost have to hope for a Middle East Crisis or a takeover bid--and betting on calamity is really no way to go about investing, in my view...Nor is betting on White Knights riding to the rescue.

    The longterm potential of MHR looks fairly solid in its own right. Especially if a more fossil fuel friendly Romney Administration comes to power...IMHO.
    Sep 4, 2012. 09:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Molycorp Until Its Liquidity Position Improves [View article]
    This drumbeat of negative press is getting tiresome. Rare earths are here to stay--And they're about the only natural resource that enjoy broad bipartisan support for development. MCP's Mountain Pass mine is now considered a critical national asset in the face of Chinese hedgemony over the RE market. Even the Japanese would rather do business with us than pin their hopes on China's tender mercies for these vital materials. And where does anyone think MCP is headed as they're about to double production in the next 4 months?

    I like MCP long term...Got in @ 10. Doubtless it's in for swings short term. But the economy won't always be in the gutter and there's no shortage of applications for these resources. So, even if it dips back to 9.40, I'd be even more interested.

    In 3 to 5 years, nothing Seeking Alpha says now will matter to anyone. MCP's still got 20 million tons of ore grading 8.9% with a 5% cutoff...They have world class processing facilities. And their permit to mine is good for the next 30 years....So, I'm in no rush...I can wait out the dips.

    Oh, looky--up another 5%...Cool...Like I said--you just have to tough it out.
    Aug 29, 2012. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insiders Bought These Shares On August 22 [View article]
    Molycorp sure has been getting a lot of bad press, lately. And much of it may be deserved. But still, when you see insiders pumping 45 million dollars into a struggling company, I take that as a very good sign.

    The people that know the company best are betting on a comeback.
    Aug 23, 2012. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Molycorp Shares Worth Buying On The Recent Plunge? [View article]
    There are powerful interests at work here because of the strategic importance of rare earths to modern industry and technology. The Federal government recognizes the strategic importance of Mountain Pass. So do the Japanese. Nobody wants to depend on China's tender mercies for their critical materials.

    I'm long MCP...Got in at 10. Personally, it could go to 3 bucks and I'd only triple down. Is it a gamble? Of course. But I love the odds.

    Rare earths are here to stay. Mine to magnets is a good business model for good economic times. We'd be shortsighted to think our economy will always be this lackluster. And there's a lot of big players outside of China that are rooting for their success. So, I'd counsel patience unless you've already lost a fortune on it. Time is really on your side here. If you have the time to wait.
    Aug 22, 2012. 08:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Commodity Stocks Moving On News [View article]
    Of course, Magnum Hunter did report a 162% production increase in boe--year over year--just 4 days ago...Now, that's just gotta be encouraging news.

    Magnum has been a slow goer...But the only thing really holding them back--in my opinion--is they still have nearly half of their production centered on natural gas...Although, CEO Gary Evans has been steadily shifting to liquids and this should bear fruit in the future.
    Aug 16, 2012. 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pair Trade Idea: Long Oasis, Short Kodiak [View article]
    Interesting...But isn't a billion in liquidity a bit much for OAS to have sloshing around with so much acreage going untended? Seems to me that KOG is just one drilled well away from matching OAS's daily 2012 production.

    And is it my imagination, or does KOG squeeze more value out of their 76 employees than OAS does with more than twice the number (174) on the payroll?

    Don't get me wrong--they're both fine companies. But OAS has a higher percentage of institutional holders and that tells me KOG just hasn't gotten the publicity and the respect they deserve. And that's the time I like to get into a stock--before it gets too well reputed to fairly price.
    Jul 18, 2012. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kodiak In Strong Position For Energy Rebound [View article]
    Not to disagree with the author's otherwise fine article--I'm sure it was only a typo...But according to KOG's own public disclosures the proved reserves of Kodiac exceeded 51 million barrels of oil equivalent...The bulk of which were in oil and liquids.

    Sorry no link--but google: KOG Corporate Presentation March 2012...A must read!

    In my view, KOG does seem to know their way around the Bakken and is well positioned to expand production moving forward. Longterm it's a safe bet but I got in very cheap--so picking your price point may be a tougher call.

    Short term is naturally bound to be bumpy until the global economy picks up...But I wouldn't dream of shorting this stock unless things calm down in the Middle East or you expect another global depression anytime soon....Just one man's opinion.
    Jul 16, 2012. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kodiak Oil Gas: A Low-Risk Way To Significantly Boost Potential Gains For Almost No Cost [View article]
    Sol: Absolutely...On paper, at least--it's awesome to see such a turnaround in net income....But I'd have to temper my reaction to it by pointing out we're talking about a company with a 2.3 billion dollar market cap....And a bit of perpective would be in order.

    And they surely didn't have to list this net income increase twice as a reason to be bullish on KOG.

    I've been bullish for a couple of years now and will be for the foreseeable future...They have such powerful flow rates from the majority of their strikes--2 to 3000 barrels a days is common....Clearly, KOG knows what the frack they're doing in the Williston Basin.
    Jul 10, 2012. 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment