bowman711's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/91381/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/160759-will-the-loonie-join-the-party?source=feed#comment-670770 670770 Thu, 10 Sep 2009 15:05:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/154675-sell-off-ahead-25-ways-to-profit-and-protect-from-a-stock-market-correction?source=feed#comment-621167 621167 Sat, 08 Aug 2009 14:47:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/151614-more-on-gold-manipulation?source=feed#comment-605265 605265
One would do well to forget trying to get 'justice' for the manipulators and put that energy and intelligence into spotting the manipulation early for your own financial benefit?]]> Tue, 28 Jul 2009 13:39:13 -0400
One would do well to forget trying to get 'justice' for the manipulators and put that energy and intelligence into spotting the manipulation early for your own financial benefit?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149181-administration-stands-firm-on-auto-dealers?source=feed#comment-590658 590658
Also, since the U.S. government is now the majority owner of GM, isn't the forced closing of dealerships synonomous with the (government) taking of property without just compensation? I thought the U.S. Constitution had something to say about that.]]> Thu, 16 Jul 2009 12:50:20 -0400
Also, since the U.S. government is now the majority owner of GM, isn't the forced closing of dealerships synonomous with the (government) taking of property without just compensation? I thought the U.S. Constitution had something to say about that.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148445-muted-energy-forecasts-for-2009-2010?source=feed#comment-587609 587609
Long term, there seems to be nothing but higher - much higher - prices:
1.) The massive inflation of the money supply, when the economy starts to recover, will surely cause higher than normal inflation in all commodities.
2.) When the economy starts to recover, there will be an investment rush into commodities as manufacturing firms begin to replenish their supply of raw materials - such as oil for plastics.
3) A recovering economy will need oil for fuel to transport commodites to manufacturers, and products to consumers.
4.) Numbers 2 and 3 will be magnified by the growth in the China, India, Brazil, and other 'new' economies competing for limited raw materials.
5.) The low prices of oil for however long it takes for a recovery will sideline exploration and development of oil, so when the economies recover, there will be a reduced supply for a world clammering for energy to produce products and bring them to market. Economic shortage means higher prices to deal with the demand.
6.) Consumers will have put off travel during the hard times, so they will have a pent up 'demand' for travel (or just taking a Sunday afternoon drive), further increasing the demand for gasoline.

Traders can play the short term changes in price; long-term investors can hardly have a better investment than oil and commodities. [The only 'wild card' is if the Obama administration can succeed in destroying enough profit-motivated business to cause businesses to decide to not continue to produce consumer goods because the profit is taxed or regulated away.]]]> Tue, 14 Jul 2009 12:34:31 -0400
Long term, there seems to be nothing but higher - much higher - prices:
1.) The massive inflation of the money supply, when the economy starts to recover, will surely cause higher than normal inflation in all commodities.
2.) When the economy starts to recover, there will be an investment rush into commodities as manufacturing firms begin to replenish their supply of raw materials - such as oil for plastics.
3) A recovering economy will need oil for fuel to transport commodites to manufacturers, and products to consumers.
4.) Numbers 2 and 3 will be magnified by the growth in the China, India, Brazil, and other 'new' economies competing for limited raw materials.
5.) The low prices of oil for however long it takes for a recovery will sideline exploration and development of oil, so when the economies recover, there will be a reduced supply for a world clammering for energy to produce products and bring them to market. Economic shortage means higher prices to deal with the demand.
6.) Consumers will have put off travel during the hard times, so they will have a pent up 'demand' for travel (or just taking a Sunday afternoon drive), further increasing the demand for gasoline.

Traders can play the short term changes in price; long-term investors can hardly have a better investment than oil and commodities. [The only 'wild card' is if the Obama administration can succeed in destroying enough profit-motivated business to cause businesses to decide to not continue to produce consumer goods because the profit is taxed or regulated away.]]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148234-how-30-barrel-oil-could-save-the-world?source=feed#comment-586048 586048
When, in the history of history, has a government controlled program produced a better result than the laws of economics?

Wasn't it price controls in the seventies that had us sitting long lines to buy a few gallons of gasoline? At the time, I was in the Coast Guard and had to make a long move; we didn't dare let out gas tank get below half lest we could not find another filling station that even had gasoline.

If $30/barrel oil would be good, wouldn't $10/barrel be even better?

Simple economics will not let the price of oil go below the cost of production, plus profit, for very long periods. A government forcing a lower price, below the cost of production, plus profit would simply shut down exploration . . . and even production from wells (or oil sands) with a higher cost, PLUS PROFIT.

I think you need to drive over to UBC (Univ. of British Columbia) and see if you can audit their Economic 101 class next semester. I am not educated in political science, but it looks to me like you could use a few courses in political science as well, considering your statements on the Middle East.


]]> Mon, 13 Jul 2009 13:42:16 -0400
When, in the history of history, has a government controlled program produced a better result than the laws of economics?

Wasn't it price controls in the seventies that had us sitting long lines to buy a few gallons of gasoline? At the time, I was in the Coast Guard and had to make a long move; we didn't dare let out gas tank get below half lest we could not find another filling station that even had gasoline.

If $30/barrel oil would be good, wouldn't $10/barrel be even better?

Simple economics will not let the price of oil go below the cost of production, plus profit, for very long periods. A government forcing a lower price, below the cost of production, plus profit would simply shut down exploration . . . and even production from wells (or oil sands) with a higher cost, PLUS PROFIT.

I think you need to drive over to UBC (Univ. of British Columbia) and see if you can audit their Economic 101 class next semester. I am not educated in political science, but it looks to me like you could use a few courses in political science as well, considering your statements on the Middle East.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147533-hidden-risk-for-canadian-oil-sands-environmentalism?source=feed#comment-579115 579115
None of the major 'environmental' organizations - with the exception of The Nature Conservancy - are interested at all in the environment anyway; all they want is the destruction of capitalist economies. ]]> Wed, 08 Jul 2009 13:07:06 -0400
None of the major 'environmental' organizations - with the exception of The Nature Conservancy - are interested at all in the environment anyway; all they want is the destruction of capitalist economies. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147015-gm-says-it-straight-and-simple-shares-are-going-to-zero?source=feed#comment-575750 575750 Mon, 06 Jul 2009 12:17:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/146423-predicting-the-next-great-bubble?source=feed#comment-570133 570133
It seems to me that what might be bad for the farmers in the southern U.S. should be great for the vast farms and ranches in Canada.]]> Wed, 01 Jul 2009 12:38:02 -0400
It seems to me that what might be bad for the farmers in the southern U.S. should be great for the vast farms and ranches in Canada.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142124-is-the-correction-in-gold-and-silver-over-or-just-beginning?source=feed#comment-538946 538946
To Larry house - you don't need to trade in and out, but you can hedge with options to (hopefully) profit from the ups and down in your precious metals holdings. I suppose I could have sold calls, but then you run the risk of some world calamity happening, gold and silver shooting way up . . . and having to sell your holdings way below their then value. [With puts, all one would lose is what you paid for them, in my case, $1.65/share.]]]> Tue, 09 Jun 2009 12:48:37 -0400
To Larry house - you don't need to trade in and out, but you can hedge with options to (hopefully) profit from the ups and down in your precious metals holdings. I suppose I could have sold calls, but then you run the risk of some world calamity happening, gold and silver shooting way up . . . and having to sell your holdings way below their then value. [With puts, all one would lose is what you paid for them, in my case, $1.65/share.]]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/141227-will-a-silver-bullet-finally-kill-the-metal-manipulators?source=feed#comment-537380 537380 Mon, 08 Jun 2009 13:16:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/141623-a-popular-etf-down-97?source=feed#comment-534888 534888 Sat, 06 Jun 2009 12:08:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/122461-why-gold-etfs-trump-gold-bullion?source=feed#comment-403239 403239
This statement is meaningless unless it is compared to something. How much was $1.00 invested in the 'DOW or 'S&P500" in 1800 be worth 200 years later?

chux08 said: "I CAN'T BELIEVE IT!! A PRIME EXAMPLE OF WHAT GOLD DOES. IT HOLDS A STEADY PRICE FOR 200 YEARS AND THIS IS BAD???????"

If the $.98 in 2000 is in current dollars, and the $1.00 in 1800 is in those dollars, then it says that the actual value of gold dropped at a slightly greater rate than the $1.00 during those 200 years.

The only way this statement can mean something would be if it is compared to some product or other commodity. How much of a barrel of oil would $1.00 worth of gold buy in 1800, and how much oil would it buy today. That is a valid comparison.]]> Wed, 25 Feb 2009 12:58:38 -0500
This statement is meaningless unless it is compared to something. How much was $1.00 invested in the 'DOW or 'S&P500" in 1800 be worth 200 years later?

chux08 said: "I CAN'T BELIEVE IT!! A PRIME EXAMPLE OF WHAT GOLD DOES. IT HOLDS A STEADY PRICE FOR 200 YEARS AND THIS IS BAD???????"

If the $.98 in 2000 is in current dollars, and the $1.00 in 1800 is in those dollars, then it says that the actual value of gold dropped at a slightly greater rate than the $1.00 during those 200 years.

The only way this statement can mean something would be if it is compared to some product or other commodity. How much of a barrel of oil would $1.00 worth of gold buy in 1800, and how much oil would it buy today. That is a valid comparison.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115301-gold-cannot-be-inflationary-but-the-dollar-sure-can?source=feed#comment-360174 360174
If I have 100 shares of stock i bought at $50/share ($5,000), and the stock drops to $30/share, ($3,000), there is $2,000 that has gone noplace; it is no more. You say it is still 'somewhere?' Where? From what I have seen, the government isn't printing money anywhere near fast enough to compensate for the 'dollars' lost just in real estate and the stock market, not to mention retail stores closing, auto company losses, etc.

If, as you say, the money is someplace, it would have to be that for every dollar stockholders and real estate owners have lost, there is someone else who has 'gotten' those dollars and is getting fabulously wealthy. I don't see any evidence of that happening. Some people may be getting wealthy shorting stock, but not nearly as many as who've gotten poorer as their portfolio has gone down in value.]]> Mon, 19 Jan 2009 15:52:24 -0500
If I have 100 shares of stock i bought at $50/share ($5,000), and the stock drops to $30/share, ($3,000), there is $2,000 that has gone noplace; it is no more. You say it is still 'somewhere?' Where? From what I have seen, the government isn't printing money anywhere near fast enough to compensate for the 'dollars' lost just in real estate and the stock market, not to mention retail stores closing, auto company losses, etc.

If, as you say, the money is someplace, it would have to be that for every dollar stockholders and real estate owners have lost, there is someone else who has 'gotten' those dollars and is getting fabulously wealthy. I don't see any evidence of that happening. Some people may be getting wealthy shorting stock, but not nearly as many as who've gotten poorer as their portfolio has gone down in value.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115301-gold-cannot-be-inflationary-but-the-dollar-sure-can?source=feed#comment-359934 359934
If so, that would explain why gold is not already skyrocketing like the chart in this article. It won't be until the real estate market recovers and the stock market is in a new bull market, and passes the difference between the dollars lost in the meltdown and the new money printed, that gold will start to skyrocket. [But then, couldn't the government begin to contract the money supply to keep gold at a steady level? I doubt they would contract the money supply - they need inflation to 'pay' for the money governments have borrowed - but it is within the realm of possibility.]]]> Mon, 19 Jan 2009 12:06:16 -0500
If so, that would explain why gold is not already skyrocketing like the chart in this article. It won't be until the real estate market recovers and the stock market is in a new bull market, and passes the difference between the dollars lost in the meltdown and the new money printed, that gold will start to skyrocket. [But then, couldn't the government begin to contract the money supply to keep gold at a steady level? I doubt they would contract the money supply - they need inflation to 'pay' for the money governments have borrowed - but it is within the realm of possibility.]]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115191-u-k-toxic-bank-plan-more-gains-for-gold?source=feed#comment-359018 359018 Sun, 18 Jan 2009 11:40:47 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114319-gold-loses-its-shine?source=feed#comment-353493 353493
It looks like the free market is responding to a demand for gold-backed paper 'money.']]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 12:49:31 -0500
It looks like the free market is responding to a demand for gold-backed paper 'money.']]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114353-the-calm-before-the-next-financial-storm?source=feed#comment-353477 353477 1. The government stops maniipulating the price and lets it go up? or,
2. The upward price pressure will make the government lose control of price through their manipulation? or,
3. Will Obama do what FDR did the last time the economy was in a similar situation - outlaw the private ownership of gold?]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 12:37:22 -0500 1. The government stops maniipulating the price and lets it go up? or,
2. The upward price pressure will make the government lose control of price through their manipulation? or,
3. Will Obama do what FDR did the last time the economy was in a similar situation - outlaw the private ownership of gold?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114273-gold-as-a-truly-last-resort?source=feed#comment-353433 353433
Oil stocks would seem to be sensible because many products are made from petroleum, and the shippers will need fuel to power their ships or trains.

I also think this should be a good indicator as to when the bear market is ending and a bull market starting. There might be rallies, even significant rallies, but until enough confidence in the economy is indicated by manfacturers increasing their inventories of raw materials, base metals, intermediate rallies will not have the 'legs' needed for a sustained bull market.]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 12:15:21 -0500
Oil stocks would seem to be sensible because many products are made from petroleum, and the shippers will need fuel to power their ships or trains.

I also think this should be a good indicator as to when the bear market is ending and a bull market starting. There might be rallies, even significant rallies, but until enough confidence in the economy is indicated by manfacturers increasing their inventories of raw materials, base metals, intermediate rallies will not have the 'legs' needed for a sustained bull market.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112376-the-ghost-of-crude-oil-futures-part-1-2?source=feed#comment-339772 339772 Sun, 28 Dec 2008 11:45:55 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111972-falling-oil-prices-the-bright-side-of-the-meltdown?source=feed#comment-336762 336762 Tue, 23 Dec 2008 12:45:58 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111893-oil-s-slide-a-result-of-capitulation-selling?source=feed#comment-336725 336725 Tue, 23 Dec 2008 12:21:35 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111422-on-precious-metals-and-the-euro?source=feed#comment-334082 334082 Fri, 19 Dec 2008 12:51:52 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/109516-oil-price-vs-gas-price-is-1-a-gallon-realistic?source=feed#comment-322993 322993
Even more important, $40 oil is making it uneconomic for oil companies to explore for and develop new oil sources.

Again, there is something very suspicious about such a drop in the price of oil, and I suspect it is just like the gold/silver price, being manipulated by the Fed/Government to make the economy and/or the dollar look better than it is. Or, it is being done to try to stave off a full depression.]]> Sun, 07 Dec 2008 11:41:39 -0500
Even more important, $40 oil is making it uneconomic for oil companies to explore for and develop new oil sources.

Again, there is something very suspicious about such a drop in the price of oil, and I suspect it is just like the gold/silver price, being manipulated by the Fed/Government to make the economy and/or the dollar look better than it is. Or, it is being done to try to stave off a full depression.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109389-considering-a-position-in-oil-again?source=feed#comment-321812 321812 Fri, 05 Dec 2008 12:52:07 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/109389-considering-a-position-in-oil-again?source=feed#comment-321805 321805 Fri, 05 Dec 2008 12:45:20 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108940-oil-won-t-drop-forever?source=feed#comment-320520 320520 finance.google.ca/grou...]]> Thu, 04 Dec 2008 04:50:36 -0500 finance.google.ca/grou...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108778-oil-a-slippery-slope-ahead?source=feed#comment-320035 320035 BQI) as a (bad) example in his article. Has BQI dropped so much in price due to economics or drop in oil demand, or because it is a favorite of the well-researched hedge and mutual funds that were forced to liquidate anything they could to meet their cash requirements?]]> Wed, 03 Dec 2008 13:27:13 -0500 BQI) as a (bad) example in his article. Has BQI dropped so much in price due to economics or drop in oil demand, or because it is a favorite of the well-researched hedge and mutual funds that were forced to liquidate anything they could to meet their cash requirements?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108778-oil-a-slippery-slope-ahead?source=feed#comment-320025 320025 futures.tradingcharts.... shows the huge drop in the price of oil. A drop due to loss of demand for oil - or due to the forced liquidation of all holdings by hedge and mutual funds? I side with a drop due to forced selling to cover leveraged positions or meet fund redemption demands.

At some point, this financial crisis will pass. What do you think will happen to the price of oil stocks when these funds start investing in them again? I'll bet 10,000 shares of BQI that when they do, oil will find its level approximately at the level it was in the middle of 2006 (see chart) and continue up at about the same rate it did until mid 2006.]]> Wed, 03 Dec 2008 13:18:41 -0500 futures.tradingcharts.... shows the huge drop in the price of oil. A drop due to loss of demand for oil - or due to the forced liquidation of all holdings by hedge and mutual funds? I side with a drop due to forced selling to cover leveraged positions or meet fund redemption demands.

At some point, this financial crisis will pass. What do you think will happen to the price of oil stocks when these funds start investing in them again? I'll bet 10,000 shares of BQI that when they do, oil will find its level approximately at the level it was in the middle of 2006 (see chart) and continue up at about the same rate it did until mid 2006.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106173-credit-markets-and-the-price-of-gold?source=feed#comment-307190 307190 Sun, 16 Nov 2008 11:40:31 -0500