bowman711

Gold as a Truly Last Resort

I agree with the comments on base metals. As the economy winds down, manufacturers will use up much or most of their raw materials, letting those inventories diminish. At some point, the economy will start to turn around, and the first element of the whole economy that will be replenished will be the raw materials manufacturers use in the products they manufacture. So, a position in base metals should be the first to start to rebound in a rebounding economy. A second position that would seem sensible would be in shipping as shippers and railroads scramble to bring the raw materials to the manufacturers.

Oil stocks would seem to be sensible because many products are made from petroleum, and the shippers will need fuel to power their ships or trains.

I also think this should be a good indicator as to when the bear market is ending and a bull market starting. There might be rallies, even significant rallies, but until enough confidence in the economy is indicated by manfacturers increasing their inventories of raw materials, base metals, intermediate rallies will not have the 'legs' needed for a sustained bull market.

Oil Will Only Fall So Far

It would be interesting to know what naked shorts there have been placed on oil during this crisis. It seems to be somewhat well understood that that the Bush government is countering any rise in gold with naked shorts placed by its surrogates. This is surely to camouflage the real rate of inflation. Isn't it possible that the Bush administration, through surrogates, is doing the same with oil? Is there any better theory as to why oil (and gold) is behaving so contrary to basic economics?

20 Guidelines for the Individual Investor

Can anyone ever have too much information? You may or may not agree with this or any other article, but you are likely to find affirmation to what your believe, or you may disagree with one or more points, and this also increases your over-all knowledge. I am a 'world class' expert in my area, and when I read a book in my topic's area I already know or disagree with 99% of the book. But, I read them for that 1% kernel of new information or new slant that I hadn't thought of. So, I'd suggest reading this or any article with that in mind. No matter how much of an expert you are in any area, you can always find something new that you didn't know, or maybe see the same area from a different perspective from what you have ever viewed it before. It all increases your experience and knowledge.

Peak Oil, Gold and the U.S. Dollar

I would submit that many of the Canadian Energy Trusts are a good oil investment right now. For example, Pengrowth Energy Trust (PGH) has gone from under $17 to over $19 since February 1 . . . as well as paying $225 dividend per 1000 shares EVERY month! That's an annual 14.2%, not including any capital gains. And, it is comforting to know that even if the stock goes down $1/share, it takes less than five months of dividends to earn it back.

This is just one example of many Canadian Energy Trusts. Take your pick from them!