bowman711

Gold as a Truly Last Resort

I agree with the comments on base metals. As the economy winds down, manufacturers will use up much or most of their raw materials, letting those inventories diminish. At some point, the economy will start to turn around, and the first element of the whole economy that will be replenished will be the raw materials manufacturers use in the products they manufacture. So, a position in base metals should be the first to start to rebound in a rebounding economy. A second position that would seem sensible would be in shipping as shippers and railroads scramble to bring the raw materials to the manufacturers.

Oil stocks would seem to be sensible because many products are made from petroleum, and the shippers will need fuel to power their ships or trains.

I also think this should be a good indicator as to when the bear market is ending and a bull market starting. There might be rallies, even significant rallies, but until enough confidence in the economy is indicated by manfacturers increasing their inventories of raw materials, base metals, intermediate rallies will not have the 'legs' needed for a sustained bull market.

The International Gold Rush: Bulls May Soon Be Rewarded

If Congress passing (and the President saying he will sign) what some say is the biggest (deficit) spending package since the New Deal moves gold down, what on earth will it take to make it move up? A nuclear bomb over some U.S. city?

I don't think you can blame such contra-economic behavior on gold's 'summer doldrums.'