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Bob de'Long

Bob de'Long
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  • 5 Important Reasons To Avoid Canadian Oil Sands Now, Perhaps Forever [View article]
    Agree. I didn’t even click on the article a few days ago that had the opposite view.

    I visited Ft McMurray in 1974; mining and refining bitumen sand is a fascinating business. However, like coal mining, it has great difficulty in competing with horizontal drilling.
    Jan 14, 2014. 06:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge Energy: Disappointing Asset Sale Reinforces Valuation Concerns [View article]
    Good article. The last number that I saw was that SD's Mississippian Lime was 58% gas on a btu basis. Thus SD's use of the term Boe/d (Barrels of oil equivalent per day) is highly misleading.

    Tom Ward repeatedly insisted the Mississippian was not a statistical play.

    My opinion remains that SD is speculative and the place to speculate is below $5. SD's Mississippian LOE has to be high; that will kill the stock if oil prices fall.

    Jan 10, 2014. 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Is Still The Best Place To Invest [View article]
    Good article. If I invest in a country other than the U.S., I'm taking a roll on currency and on the relative risks of the foreign country.

    War and revolution are a threat to almost every foreign country except northwestern Europe.

    I would add to your positives for the U.S. -- cheap natural gas and gas liquids. They are helping fuel a resurgence in key industries: chemicals, glass, plastics, petroleum refining, and iron & steel. cheap natural gas allows the U.S. cheap electricity.

    Jan 8, 2014. 04:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Barrett: The Niobrara And Uinta Upside [View article]
    Another good article, Mr. Zeits.

    Exploitation is the game and BBG's concentrated acreage makes that possible.

    However, the overall market is at a high. I own WLL, but will wait for a correction to pursue others is your very good table.
    Jan 8, 2014. 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge to sell Gulf of Mexico business for $750M, raises output guidance [View news story]
    Thanks for the numbers guys. Isn't half a billion about what Tom pocketed for his term as CEO?
    Jan 7, 2014. 09:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil & Gas Royalty Trusts - Opportunities Or Value Traps? [View article]
    From the parent company’s viewpoint these trusts were just a financing scheme – the creation of which furnished the parent’s stockholders with more present value than creating alternative financing schemes (more bonds, more common, or more joint ventures).

    In other words, the purchasers of these trusts were willing to pay a higher risked-adjusted premium than potential buyers of the alternative financing vehicles.
    Dec 29, 2013. 07:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wood Pellet Exports From North America Have Steadily Increased Over The Past Two Years, Having More Than Doubled Since Late 2011 [View instapost]
    Good article, thank you.
    Dec 26, 2013. 07:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goodrich Petroleum Announces Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Operational Update [View article]
    I would not have made this announcement. Saying that the well is "plugged up" in the horizontal section and that it must be "cleaned out" only adds uncertainty. Cleaning out might take a day; it might require bringing in a big rig for a major workover. GDP might lose the hole.

    Anything unusual down hole adds uncertainty.

    I own just a bit of GDP; if this clumsy miscue send the stock down to $16, I'll buy a bit more.
    Dec 26, 2013. 07:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Wattenberg/Utica Producer Has 30% Upside [View article]
    Great article; I do, however agree with Price Holland that "firm leverage" in a play should be calculated on a per MktCap basis rather than per share. I calculated acres per million of MktCap
    and the results are quite different.

    From most leverage to least leveraged:

    Utica Players:
    HK 88.8
    MHR 61.5
    GPOR 28.9
    PDCE 24.3
    REXX 19.1

    Non-Utica,Diversified Firms:
    CNX 9.2
    AR 6.4
    APC 6.3
    HES 5.8
    Dec 26, 2013. 06:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Newfield Exploration: Why Is The Stock Down? [View article]
    Good article.

    Divestitures only help a healthy firm. A divestiture shrinks the asset base and the cash flow, which limits the firm’s ability to sell long term debt and often immediately shrinks an oil firm’s revolver. A weak firm like FST (Forest Oil) gains nothing net with divestitures.

    NFX’s CapEx has not increased in four years. The firm is healthy, but there is no robust growth.

    I’ve been an investor and traded heavily in NFX stock since 2008. Like other investors, I’ve been burned by CEO Boothby’s continual failures. He has been there 14 years.

    Boothby bought into a bad part of the Eagle Ford; his acreage is not on the fairway, it’s off the course and on the other side of the highway. Boothby sold his Williams County Bakken acreage to CLR; CLR is drilling like mad there. Boothby was late in divesting his offshore Gulf of Mexico assets, late in starting to divest his offshore Asian assets. He did not move on these divestitures until the investment bankers were screaming at him. Boothby reacts; proactive he is not.

    Boothby oversold the Uinta Basin to investors. Now that he is beginning to hit some super wells. He cannot sell the oil.

    All that said, I’ve been buying NFX during December (I dumped a third of my stock in October). NFX is not grossly undervalued but still an acceptable buy even in this generally over-priced market.
    I don’t believe that “every dog has his day.” NFX is a dog and may never have its day; it will continue to muddle through.
    Dec 11, 2013. 05:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ultra Petroleum: Additional Data Supports Uinta Acquisition Valuation [View article]
    Who is UPL going to sell their Uinta basin oil to? I'm getting killed in NFX, mostly due to no incremental market out there.

    $20/bbl to railroad oil out of the Basin.
    Dec 10, 2013. 11:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forest Oil: Strategic Challenges Remain [View article]
    Thanks Richard for a brave call.

    My thoughts have been that FST is a high capital cost firm with margin returns on new drilling @ $90 oil. Possible prices are much lower than that.

    I wonder, if FST sold all their production and leases, would the proceeds it cover it's debt.

    My guess is that FST is pink sheet material.

    Dec 8, 2013. 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marathon Oil: Accelerating Performance With The Eagle Ford And The Bakken Shale [View article]
    Thanks, Gabe. I've been so busy that I'm behind on the Tyler Formation. WLL has two presentations this coming Wednesday; I'm hoping to see something new on the Tyler.
    Dec 8, 2013. 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In fracking, sand is the new gold, but health concerns rise [View news story]
    Seeking Alpha's Michael Filloon had a great article on this on November 3rd. The WSJ is a month late.

    Sand is not a rare commodity. The capacity to produce it is in temporary shortage.

    Here is Mr. Filloon's article:
    Dec 3, 2013. 11:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Is On A Debt Binge And A Buying Spree Unlike Anything The World Has Ever Seen Before [View article]
    If China is creating worthless money and buying hard foreign assets with it, China will not be the bag holder. Those foreigners holding any Chinese securities will be the bag holders.
    Nov 27, 2013. 01:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment