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Bob de'Long

Bob de'Long
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  • Ultra Petroleum's Uinta Acquisition: Why Is The Stock Down? [View article]
    Unita is isolated. No pipelines. The market is limited to a few rather small local refineries. NFX and others are shipping by rail at an extra cost of $12 - $15 per barrel. The Unita is becoming awash in oil.

    Oct 25, 2013. 06:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clayton Williams: Leveraged To Momentum In 2 Top Oil Plays [View article]
    Thanks. I have stayed away from CWEI, because its CEO Clayton Williams operates it like a hobby. Not one of his management team has an exploration or production experience. They are financial types or lawyers and landmen (which are lawyers too).

    I look at CWEI every few years and find they aren't in the same plays they were in the last time I looked. That's what you get with wheeler-dealer financial/legal types. Flighty.

    I like BBG much better since they dumped Bill Barrett and his offspring. SD will become a better firm without founder Tom Ward, CHK without old Whatshisname. HK needs to can old Whicha Madiddy, its founder. [or is it flounder?]

    Oct 23, 2013. 05:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goodrich Petroleum: Transformation Underway [View article]
    Keep up the good work on GDP.

    "...the value of Goodrich's TMS [300,000 net] acreage position implied by the stock's current price is approximately $1 billion or less."

    Devil's advocate: They just bought 185,000 acres of it for $26.7 million ($144/ac), which implies a value of $43.3 million.

    Back of the Envelop: GDP 2014 CapEx billion $375 million ÷ $1.1 billion MktCap = 34%. This is high, which I consider good. If GDP’s TMS investments average an IRR of over 50%, then it will be a winner. If not, I’d be better off staying with WLL, which has much less risk and whose IRRs easily exceed 50%. GDP faces two types of risk that WLL does not, completion risk and unproven reservoir risk.

    If there is a major overall market drop, GDP may fall to the $10-$12ps range. $26ps is just too high. I'll wait.
    Oct 23, 2013. 04:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Newfield Exploration Signs Share Purchase Agreement for its Offshore Malaysian Business [View article]
    Three years too late, but better late than never. It still has a that cash-draining offshore project in a Red Chinese river mouth that should never have been started.
    Oct 22, 2013. 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Every Investor Should Own Shale Oil Stocks [View article]
    When the broader market is at an all-time high and WTI oil is at $100/bbl, would-be investors should be cautious. I'm 60% cash and waiting for a possible pullback.
    Oct 21, 2013. 04:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Frac Sand Pricing Could Go Parabolic As EOG Resources' Well Design Revolutionizes Unconventional Oil Production [View article]
    Great article. Won't production of sand just increase? Price might rise a bit, if the marginal cost of production increases, but a big jump in sand prices shouldn't be unsustainable for more than two years.

    If the stages in new wells get shorter, it suggests massive workover (additional fracking) opportunities in older wells. This too would increase the demand for proppant.
    Oct 20, 2013. 08:26 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp to offer $200M of stock, shares -20% [View news story]
    The MCP jerks keep selling stock to pay their fat salaries are perks.
    Oct 15, 2013. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Newfield Exploration says CFO Rathert to retire [View news story]
    They need to fire the CEO too. NFX is currently run by a pack that knows nothing about exploration and who think the an well IRR of 30% is fantastic and one of 15% is acceptable. The only ones stupider are stockholders like me.
    Oct 15, 2013. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Move To The Sidelines? [View article]
    Chartism should be declared a mental illness.

    My guess is that we could more easily fall to DJA 10,000 than rise to 20,000. I've been lightening up. Now 54% cash.
    Oct 12, 2013. 06:23 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mississippian Oil Play: Another Setback? [View article]
    "The real story here is how badly Sandridge and Chesapeake mislead investors..."
    Sep 26, 2013. 04:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken still has legs and will surprise investors, Goldman says [View news story]
    Goldman Sachs has never right on oil. This could be an exception; even a blind crook finds an acorn twice a day.
    Sep 25, 2013. 06:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Producers Could Soon Be Victims Of Their Own Success [View article]
    Comprehensive article that generated great comments. Thanks.

    A 50¢ increase would 15% above $4, and its all profit. If sustained, the 50¢ would spur massive drilling and there are plenty of idle rigs just waiting for customers. Even better rigs are still being build.
    Sep 25, 2013. 06:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Goodrich Petroleum: Mighty Thrust In Tuscaloosa Oil Shale [View article]
    Grand article, Mr. Zeits. Of course, it’s possible that GDP might sell its Eagle Ford holdings to fund the TMS. That’s the kind of dramatic move that Petrohawk made when it committed to the Eagle Ford.
    Sep 25, 2013. 05:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Hunter Continues To Be Challenged [View article]
    Thanks, Josh. Cost of capital of preferred and debt is about the only way, I know of getting a market measure of the risk of a firm. Firms successful oil E&P firms like EOG and CLR get cheap long term debt. MHR is much riskier, and GRH even riskier.

    GRH says they are in the Wind/Biofuels/Biomass businesses, which are all flops. And GHR management knows it; they are quickly moving by acquisition into oil field services. It's a good business but an extremely competitive one.

    There is about zero synergy between oil field services and Wind/Biofuels/Biomass.

    Being my hypercritical self, it look's like GHR management is looking for capital to pay their own salaries, benefits, and perks.

    They use the polar bear theory of management. GHR management are like bears trapped on a melting iceberg. As it melts, they swim to another one, which is in a earlier stage of melt.

    However, shorting an apparent dog is risky. It could take years for the iceberg to melt. Thanks again for alerting investors.
    Sep 22, 2013. 11:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Bulls: Let's Talk About Iraq [View article]
    Investing in firms that spend my money in Libya, Iraq, Nigeria, and the like makes no sense.

    There are plenty of real oil firms (E&Ps) that invest only in North America.

    XOM is not an oil E&P firm but a huge unwieldy conglomerate.
    Sep 21, 2013. 06:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment