Seeking Alpha

stubru

stubru
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View stubru's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • 2 Best Oil And Gas Stocks To Buy, 2 To Avoid [View article]
    I am happily long TOT (40 % of my portfolio); the stock trades for a discount due to Europroblems, but oil remains a global business. Best is the upstream portfolio of TOT which is, in my view, unbeatable.
    Dec 8 07:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clouds Over Omaha - Time To Sell Berkshire Hathaway [View article]
    Underperformance compared to S&P is not too odd; read Buffett's 2013 annual letter. Definitely no time to sell Berkshire; perhaps sell some of your (over performing) S&P stocks to put in the 'underperforming' Berkshire would be more wise: read some Joel Greenblatt, Peter Stanyer or Ben Graham: buy what's cheap or what has underperformed (when it's a good stock). Listen to Charlie Munger: he's in for more ;-)
    May 6 02:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway Is Undervalued By 15% [View article]
    Read the Berkshire Hathaway annual report....
    Apr 3 08:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: How To Get The Company's Growth Options Without Paying For Them [View article]
    Thanks for the article! IBM makes about 4 % of my portfolio which is a relative big stake, after Wells Fargo (7 %), Starbucks (6 %) and Value8 (5 %). With IBM I've got the seem feeling I had a few years ago with holding on to Microsoft: at 25 $ it felt as 'written off' (the typical 'value'-feeling for which a stubborn character is needed) but usually things are overdone: look at Microsoft's stock today (unfortunately I sold Microsoft at about 33 $); IBM's forward earnings a little less than 10 times for next year... come on... even if revenue goes down (it probably will)....I'll take that risk... at least for 4 % of my portfolio... :-)
    May 31 04:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American International Group: A Book Value Bargain To Consider Now [View article]
    What do you think on the clash Berkshire (re-insurance) - AIG?
    It was the reason for me to sell out on AIG, but that might have been overdone....
    May 24 11:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Accumulate Berkshire Hathaway On The Dips [View article]
    Nice article; I agree with the content.
    David at Imperial Beach: I don't care about currency-risk: it's like the tide of the sea. America is still a country in which I have great faith; and that weak dollar seems like a pretty smart strategy to me, which eventually should work out ok for earnings. You just don't want to have cash.
    May 5 11:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway Looks Overextended [View article]
    I think it's hard to estimate the value of Berkshire stock; don't forget that book-value on the Berkshire balance sheet is often the price for which a stock was bought in the past.... Geico's book value is 3 billion USD, but the intrinsic value maybe something like 22 to 23 billion USD (conservative). Furthermore due to GAAP-rules (which should be changed as many other things in the general economy) minority stakes contribute only to the reported profit of Berkshire as it comes to dividends paid. The retained earnings stay out of vision. My opinion would be the stock price of Berkshire is not overstretched, at least not compared with the rest of the market. In terms of a conservative view you could view 1.2 times book value of Berkshire a good entry point (it's when Berkshire will repurchase); when you're in for the long term, current levels may be ok at least for accumulation of the stock.
    May 3 05:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway Is Undervalued By 15% [View article]
    The Buffett-premium isn't much, if there's any; at least when you compare the valuation of Berkshire with other American stocks. I hope it'll take at least 10 years before Buffett dies... as I said: > at least < and > I hope <. Who wouldn't want to live up to Charlie Munger? So where will Berkshire be in 5 years, where in 10 years? Guys; we're talking about something like 12 000 USD profit per stock per year; Warren is the hero; but he's built Berkshire to last and to grow. Berkshire will be like an oil stain.... the Berkshire of the present will dwarf compared to the Berkshire of the future.... in my humble opinion.
    May 1 01:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway Is Undervalued By 15% [View article]
    Why would you want a dividend? I hate dividends. They let you pay taxes for receiving dividends and the cost of distributing them is high, which, eventually, the stock-owner pays for. If a company has a good investment opportunity, I'd prefer they spent their money there instead of paying a dividend. Unfortunately many companies are not very good at spending someone else's money (wisely), so for those it's better to receive a dividend (but perhaps you should not want to own those stocks in the first place). For a company which main purpose is investment and with a track record like Berkshire I'm very happy to give them the benefit of the 'doubt'.... they can re-invest 'my' unpaid dividends. Only real problem for Berkshire could have been the gigantic amounts of cash; Welsh and Combs will grow on it; they might be even better than Buffett; although that could be too good to be true....
    Apr 8 02:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Losers In The Changing Healthcare System [View article]
    Very interesting article. The emptier pipelines were an already known problem pretty much priced in the market if you ask me.... PM is very interesting and might grow effectiveness; if effectiveness grows, might/ will be able customers (patients) pay more? This might make up for a portion of loosing volume? Furthermore; the worldpopulation grows and gets richer (slowly) which might be good for pharma revenue? I am long TEVA, Sanofi, J&J.
    Dec 4 07:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Sold Everything: Questions Answered [View article]
    Very nice and honest article! Read some Nassim Nicholas Taleb and stop trying to forecast, start becoming anti fragile. Cash is robust, not anti fragile. Nobody got poorer from selling, but it doesn't make you rich either. I'm long since 2010 and will stay so. A correction might come, but I'll hang out there collecting dividends. To be as much anti fragile as possible I didn't buy new stocks since this year. So in case of a correction I have some cash at hand. But then.... with all the zillions of cash printed by all central banks around the world.... I still think there's some value in my 2010-slogan 'cash-is-trash'.
    Jul 28 07:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chicago Bridge & Iron: Acquisition Accounting Shenanigans Dramatically Inflate Profitability - Prescience Point Initiates At Strong Sell [View article]
    Guess the short seller will (try to) seek a valid weak spot; I'll be waiting on the sidelines. See what happens. Sold out yesterday on CBI just before the big drop.
    Jun 18 05:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway's Pieces Are Worth More Than The Whole [View article]
    BRK is undervalued in my opinion; it should trade at about 225 000 usd; but it'll get there. Some day. I won't sell. Never. Unfortunately I own only 5 A shares and a lot of B's. BRK worth more in pieces than as a whole: so, it's undervalued. As a whole it's stronger and supportive for temporarily weak parts due to fluctuations in the market to optimize future chances. I'll be a buyer of BRK in the future when I get new excess of reserves. BRK won't split up; it's more like an oil-stain. BRK represents the new and more honest and more fair economy. Read Buffett's letters. I read all of 'm. He's way ahead of his time.
    Mar 12 05:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Story Time With Tesla Motors [View article]
    I'll probably buy a Tesla next week; but about the shares...: I still don't get exactly what their competitive advantage is: what exactly gives them their technical superiority (?) and how can they keep this up? Without patents I think it will not last long and the high valuation might be overdone. The Tesla looks nice, but when BMW would offer the same engine/ battery pack, I'd buy the BMW :-) How long will it take and why?
    Feb 24 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2012 Predictions Are Quite Easy For Dividend Investors [View article]
    Very true. But it's ProctEr; not ProctOr. And they're not unique. Depending on the euro-dollar buying some Unilever or P&G might be a good idea. I own P&G; don t own Unilever yet....have been waiting for dips....too long.... Ben & Jerry's is Unilever for example...
    Jan 1 07:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
18 Comments
16 Likes