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SapientInvestor

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  • Salesforce rumors/reports keep coming [View news story]
    The title of this news should be: "The rumors of Salesforce.com acquisition continue to be discredited."

    SEC should investigate the origins of this story as there seems to be no substance behind it other than the potential motive to illegally manipulate billions in market cap. This is especially blatant because the rumor reports from Bloomberg were very specific with regards to mentioning SAP and MSFT.

    Ok, So the high ups at Oracle, SAP, and MSFT have all basically said they are not interested and refuting other various allegations such as previous talks.

    Only one left is IBM.

    Does anyone really think that Warren Buffett would allow a sale to go through? IBMs CEO was just at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting in Omaha showing respect to its single largest shareholder. IBM has shown a strong sensitivity to EPS and used buybacks to support it. Is buying CRM consistent with this? NO.
    May 8, 2015. 08:00 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bloomberg: Salesforce, SAP discussed alliance, acquisition last year [View news story]
    So much for Bloomberg's credibility. Didn't take long to debunk this hype.
    May 4, 2015. 08:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Internet Bancorp beats by $0.14, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Needs to break a $100M market cap. Too small for many institutions to own or pay specific attention too. I think it will happen soon.

    Apr 23, 2015. 11:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NOW Inc.: Strong Position To Take Advantage Of Weak Energy Markets [View article]
    I agree this is probably an attractive entry point. I currently own shares. Its not without risks if the price of oil stays low or lower for a VERY long period however, which I don't expect.

    The other key is if they are able to execute significant acquisitions, which one would think that they would considering their stated objectives and track record.

    If the price of oil stays low long enough to inflict serious pain on levered and/or smaller competitors for DNOW to buy them very cheap and the oil price recovers thereafter, DNOW will make a killing. For that reason, it may take years for the investment to play out as a good one, which I have no problem with.
    Mar 3, 2015. 09:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Take-Two - Impressive 'GTA V' Sales To Spark Massive Q3 Upside [View article]
    I agree shares still have immediate upside and there will be a massive beat as sales of GTA on current gen eventually reach close to 10 million. PC, currency, and add ons will be wild cards but I believe market has underestimated these as well as the pipeline of games in development. Evolve may be a cult seller with less than stellar initial sales but a bit more staying power than average.

    Shorts have it wrong and have not capitulated yet. I'm curious why the author would not want to own any shares, given such a positive outlook, or if the disclosure was incorrect.
    Jan 19, 2015. 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Take-Two Interactive Now [View article]
    The company is no longer reliant on just GTA...I am not so sure why so many people do not see that. It is not the same company it was 5 years ago because of New IP and acquired IP. 2015 is not going to be a weak year.

    Evolve
    GTA (PC and DLC/Currency)
    Battleborn
    NBA 2K16

    This version of GTA is also proving to have a much higher demand and shelf life than previous versions due to the quality and online component.

    They have been working on Red Dead Redemption for some time and have stated that they will announce in 2015. I expect a 2016 release at the latest.

    They have a lot more resources now and have been staffing up, and opening up new studios so I expect titles to come out more frequently. Now that they have a superb working game engine, they just have to refine and put out content.

    Take two has built of an extraordinary amount of goodwill and respect with gamers in comparison to other studios, something that take many years to do. This is extremely valuable when you are in the process of creating New IP, making sure the game gets the free marketing attention necessary and willingness of people to buy something new.

    The market cap of $2.29 billion is nothing when you compare the the rest of the industry. Microsoft purchased Mojang for $2.5 Billion! King digital is currently $5 Billion. Activision is $14 Billion. What happens to their income if you remove World of Warcraft and COD from their roster?
    Dec 18, 2014. 09:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Internet Bancorp: Turnaround Banking Story Taking Shape [View article]
    Once the company crosses the $100 million market cap it should attract a little more attention and volume. I am torn about removing the dividend. Market may react that it is a sign of weakness even though it would make more sense to not have one. Probably would be better spent even buying back shares at these levels given the discount to book and that they recently raised equity at a higher price. Dividend does not make much sense if proper governance is in place and it is growing its deposits and therefore needing equity.

    Given the discount to book, I would think another larger branchless bank would want to buy them. Its going to be a race for scale in this type of business model.
    Dec 11, 2014. 04:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Take-Two To Beat And Raise Again In Q3 [View article]
    I think your GTA 5 sales estimates may be on the conservative end. I expect the userbase of current gen consoles to be more active considering they all recently purchased. GTA 5 does not have strong competition considering mediocre reviews of supposedly must have titles such as Assassins Creed. Yes this is a re release but virtually all reviews recommended purchasing the game regardless if you owned it before. One thing holding it back is pricing as other titles are going through significant discounting. I would not be surprised to see closer to 10 million GTA 5 sold.

    Activision said it was surprised by the number of people who purchased Destiny for download. I expect a similar or greater surprise for GTA 5 as it was also available for predownload and offered incentives of in game cash for pre purchase. I assume incentives were available at gamestop but I am unsure and I think others may have had the same reaction and opted to simply purchase online. This should be healthy for margins going forward.
    Dec 2, 2014. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GameStop: How Long Can It Defy The Odds? [View article]
    Look at the current sales going on for XBOX one games for download and you start to see where this is going for games that have been released for 2 months or more. You start to see that GMEs used game inventory is having less and less value, especially when the pricing gets to impulse level. This has been going on in the PC space with "STEAM Sales" for some time but only just now beginning to hit consoles. How many PC games does GME sell? Not many.

    People have been talking about cloud gaming for a while but only now with NVIDIA GRID do we see that it can work well and in commercial form. Expect a Netflix like subscription service to decimate GMEs used game business in the coming years.

    The latest quarter was blamed on game delays...so why the weak guidance going forward then? Consoles are selling like crazy with aggressive pricing...whats the problem?

    I am short GME
    Nov 30, 2014. 11:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not Buying The GameStop Turnaround Story Yet [View article]
    Debt has been rising for a company that is supposed to be making a lot of money. There are also its off balance sheet liabilities via store leases that could pose a significant problem if business deteriorates.

    When you subtract the Goodwill and the property plant and equipment (which represent leasehold improvements) you are left with NEGATIVE equity approaching $1 billion. Add in the off balance sheet liabilities and it worsens the picture further.

    I am short GME
    Nov 24, 2014. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GameStop - A Value Trap [View article]
    Gamestop blamed the delay of AC game on the previous Q but still guided to a weak Q4. How bad would Q4 be if AC was not delayed? Msft and Sony are offering great deals this holiday to move product and Gamestop cant make numbers?

    Another trend that you didnt emphasize is that gaming is going to the cloud, not just digital downloads. Look at Nvidia Shield and the Nvidia Grid, which has gotten solid reviews. Its all happening much faster than I think bulls realize. Right now its mostly PC games but give it another year or two. This or similar services should make a huge dent in trade in business of older titles.

    I believe this is a classic value trap and an obvious story of disintermediation that has just started to shift into higher gear. I am short GME.
    Nov 22, 2014. 11:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway to Acquire the Duracell Battery Business from Procter & Gamble [View article]
    Buffett says he never "times the market" but looks like a defensive move. Raise another 1.7 billion in cash. Reduce some common equity exposure in favor of higher yielding income generating asset which he controls and can invest in something more productive. Cash hoard at BRK has already been pilling up...

    Nov 13, 2014. 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon Powers Forward After Delivering Strong Third Quarter Results [View article]
    Nice article. It's encouraging to see that despite its large market cap and attractive yields, and recent earnings growth, there is very little interest here on SA. I am long despite the competition because I think they can offset potentially weaker margins with increased commercial business where VZ network breadth is an important advantage. Paying down debt should also be a low risk way of improving earnings per share.
    Nov 6, 2014. 09:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay: Short-Term Earnings Weakness Offers A Price With A Significant Margin Of Safety [View article]
    Excellent article! I have had my eye on ebay for a while. I still have not come to a firm conclusion regarding their pricing power. It would seem that the platform would benefit from significant size advantages you mentioned, and therefore, pricing power. However, we have other platforms eating into market share by offering sellers lower fees. There was a time when Ebay had a large market share in China only to see BABA desimate it by undercutting it price-wise among other things.
    Oct 27, 2014. 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Yahoo set to invest in Snapchat at $10B valuation [View news story]
    This is not a good sign. Since the only way Yahoo has made huge gains in the past were through one investment, they seem to think that this is the way they should move forward. Maybe yahoo should have hired a hedge fund manager or VC as CEO. This is a mediocre business with management that has little respect for capital but at a discounted price per share...who knows how long that will last.
    Oct 3, 2014. 07:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
105 Comments
133 Likes