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SapientInvestor

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  • Reviewing Railroads: An Exceptional Investment Past [View article]
    the share price declining faster than trailing 12. you may speculate why the market has done that but sometimes the
    market is irrational. dont be a servant to the market let the market serve you
    Aug 27, 2015. 07:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why salesforce May Fall From Here [View article]
    "CRM acknowledged talking to Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) about an acquisition earlier this year at $55 billion"

    When and who acknowledged this? No one but anonymous sources. What does that even mean? Beniof called up Nadella and asked if he wanted the company for $55 billion? You write about it as though it was a hard fact.

    It would be wise to maintain a healthy skepticism to these rumors because there are enormous incentives to spread them in the first place. There is a lot of money at stake.
    Aug 22, 2015. 04:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • salesforce: The Investor's (Speculator's) Coin Toss [View article]
    Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.
    Aug 22, 2015. 12:39 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iRobot Continues To Gain Steam [View article]
    The CTOs departure is concerning considering he has not been at the company for long and sold evolution robotics to IRBT. Probably some buyer's remorse and/or issues with the emerging tech which the CTO was in charge of. Its telling me there is some problem under the hood of this company right now.

    You say there is "hype" surrounding AVA500 but I dont see much hype at all. It has been a while now. It seems the pricing and set up costs may be the issue.

    The one important strength you forgot to mention is the Balance Sheet and net cash position. However, that brings me to another point. The company made several share repurchase authorizations but barely bought back any stock.

    I have been a shareholder in the past but I am a bit disappointed with the lack of progress on other robotic fronts. I had originally thought that they would have a lower cost ava500 by now.

    The company has not been able to show me that it can grow its EPS or that it can capitalize on new products. I made some good money on the stock but I would need a lower multiple before buying back again considering other investment options out there with wider economic moats and an overall market that appears pricey.
    Aug 11, 2015. 08:17 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Take-Two's Digital Sales Should Concern You [View article]
    This is a very weak analysis and not accounting for the lumpyness in digital sales that TTWO will experience relative to EA or ATVI simply due to a wider portfolio of titles which would even out digital sales metrics. What happens to the figure when TTWO releases a significant paid DLC for GTA5? Why not add 2013 and 2012? What will that trend show you?
    Aug 11, 2015. 05:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Is On Your Side In Ally Financial? [View article]
    No. They are in the process of buying back their preferred shares. After that my guess is they may pay down some debt.
    Jun 28, 2015. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Update: What's New, And What Is Not [View article]
    Raw performance is not enough.

    AMD has a reputation of worse driver support among many gamers.

    Nvidia does not help their predicament by getting more involved in the development process and adding bells and whistles such as gameworks.

    I think this a very difficult image to overcome and the main reason why I think that nvidia has such a dominant market share and people using nvidia will stay loyal. People will want to buy the PC that will have the least amount of issues.
    Jun 20, 2015. 04:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla CFO Ahuja retiring; Model X deliveries in 3-4 months [View news story]
    There is no comparison. All those companies were making tons of money and had huge, enduring margins. (aside from the rough patch that apple had when Jobs left the company)
    Jun 10, 2015. 07:43 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Can EverBank Teach Us About Bank Of Internet? [View article]
    Why would you do a straight comparison of EPS (alone) in one paragraph and then much further down in the article a straight comparison of share price (alone). Is there any meaning to the reader in either of those without context?

    Not to be overly critical but I do not see how Apple Pay and Google Wallet are in the same business. Do either pay you an interest on deposits or even accept deposits? Can I withdraw cash out of an ATM with either without a fee? Are either originating loans of any sort?

    I would say the crux of the comparison between EVER and BOFI boils down to efficiency ratio, which can serve as an engine of growth if its much lower than the competition. It seems like the two are in a different realm in this regard (despite both being "online banks") and it would be more interesting and constructive for an article to try to explain why. I dont have the answer. Maybe Everbank is not completely branchless, maybe its culture or mgmt differences. Maybe its something else. I don't know enough about Everbank.
    Jun 1, 2015. 10:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: Latest Earnings Strong But Questions About Long-Term Profitability Remain [View article]
    Lets say MSFT issues $50 billion in bonds to finance the hypothetical deal at investment grade pricing. That would equate to about $1.825 billion in annual interest payments. Add the approximate $262 million in annual losses for CRM and you are looking at about $2.1 billion in reduced earnings at MSFT. Obviously an over simplification but you get the picture. There would be synergies but there would also be dissynergies and integration costs that people always forget.
    May 24, 2015. 10:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: Latest Earnings Strong But Questions About Long-Term Profitability Remain [View article]
    All your points rest on the assumption that the story is even true. Have you even stopped to think that it may not be? When the rumor first came out, it was Oracle, then it was SAP, which even denied ever having talks. Now comes MSFT version, after several at MSFT have denied it. Besides the shadiness of the story chain, on a practical level it makes very little sense even at $55 billion.

    Where is MSFT going to come up with the cash, its all overseas and would have to be taxed. That kind of bond issue would likely affect its credit rating so maybe it would be significant dilution? Shareholders would be up in arms. The story talks about Benioff transferring his ownership to MSFT. Would Satya really want another ex CEO ego maniac at MSFT with more voting shares than him? Who knows but in any case there seems to be a lot of unusually difficult pills to swallow in order to believe this deal.
    May 24, 2015. 09:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce rumors/reports keep coming [View news story]
    The title of this news should be: "The rumors of Salesforce.com acquisition continue to be discredited."

    SEC should investigate the origins of this story as there seems to be no substance behind it other than the potential motive to illegally manipulate billions in market cap. This is especially blatant because the rumor reports from Bloomberg were very specific with regards to mentioning SAP and MSFT.

    Ok, So the high ups at Oracle, SAP, and MSFT have all basically said they are not interested and refuting other various allegations such as previous talks.

    Only one left is IBM.

    Does anyone really think that Warren Buffett would allow a sale to go through? IBMs CEO was just at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting in Omaha showing respect to its single largest shareholder. IBM has shown a strong sensitivity to EPS and used buybacks to support it. Is buying CRM consistent with this? NO.
    May 8, 2015. 08:00 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bloomberg: Salesforce, SAP discussed alliance, acquisition last year [View news story]
    So much for Bloomberg's credibility. Didn't take long to debunk this hype.
    May 4, 2015. 08:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Internet Bancorp beats by $0.14, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Needs to break a $100M market cap. Too small for many institutions to own or pay specific attention too. I think it will happen soon.

    Apr 23, 2015. 11:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NOW Inc.: Strong Position To Take Advantage Of Weak Energy Markets [View article]
    I agree this is probably an attractive entry point. I currently own shares. Its not without risks if the price of oil stays low or lower for a VERY long period however, which I don't expect.

    The other key is if they are able to execute significant acquisitions, which one would think that they would considering their stated objectives and track record.

    If the price of oil stays low long enough to inflict serious pain on levered and/or smaller competitors for DNOW to buy them very cheap and the oil price recovers thereafter, DNOW will make a killing. For that reason, it may take years for the investment to play out as a good one, which I have no problem with.
    Mar 3, 2015. 09:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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