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SapientInvestor

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  • Tesla Earnings Call Decimates Most Bear Arguments [View article]
    This a reasonable approach but even you are being quite generous referring to non-gaap (fantasy) earnings when in fact they lost $.40 cents in the quarter. What is that annualized instead? Its a LOSS of $200,000,000. Assuming no dilution in the future (Ha!) $10/share would mean the company would be EARNING $1.24 Billion. That is a long way to go. Lets say when it gets there its trading at a PE of 20 would make the shares worth $200. That is a long time to wait for a lot of uncertainty and not a lot of upside.
    May 8 04:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Still A Short Story: B Of I Holdings Acquires Deposits [View article]
    This is the best you could come up with? There was a time when GEICO was just an another insurance company, Costco, Walmart, and Amazon were just another retailer... They were all operating in highly commoditized and competitive products and services. They all had the most efficient operation and passed most of those savings to the consumer...call it toasters, call it whatever you want... Its good business practice. They all traded at high premium to book after their business took off. Too bad you missed the opportunity to short them right?

    I am long BOFI.
    Apr 12 05:15 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Stocks With Large Buyback Programs - They May Bite Back [View article]
    Buybacks are not always good although I would say the title of the article is a bit over the top, probably intentionally so to stir some healthy debate.
    Mar 28 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BofI Holding: A Bank Model Fraught With Peril, 65% Downside Based On 1.6 X Book Value [View article]
    Have you considered the fact that most of the portfolio loans are adjustable rate? I think you may be underestimating the stickiness of depositors. Yes they made the initial decision to move accounts because of pricing which was large enough spread to warrant the effort but once there they will require a somewhat equally large incentive to move again. Average LTV of mortgage assets is abnormally conservative and should have probably been mentioned in your analysis. Also, taking samples of comments made online regarding customer service in my opinion would not be very scientific. How many people are going to take time out of their day to write a positive review of their bank if everything is up to their standards. I agree that the valuation is rich and there are always risks but hardly a reason to short a stock in my opinion. Best of luck though and I enjoyed the analysis even if I felt it was a bit one sided.
    Mar 19 11:01 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: Immense Potential For Growth [View article]
    See if these experts are putting their money where their mouth is. They are not.
    Mar 14 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com lands four-star general on its board [View news story]
    First the Bush administration, then the Benioff administration.
    Mar 14 08:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com: Immense Potential For Growth [View article]
    No discussion of equity price...at all?? No mention of the fact that lengthening of average contract terms has had a large influence on the reported amazing deferred revenue growth? Seriously, who are you people??
    Mar 12 05:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iRobot: A One-Product Consumer Electronics Company Misperceived As Riding A Robotics Trend [View article]
    The value of a business is not based primarily on what it is going to earn in the next year or the year after. It is the discounted future earnings over the course of many years into the future. I agree that this is not an easy thing to do for an evolving industry and you may want to assign a higher discount rate, but I would be very careful to label IRBT a one product company by looking the the rear view mirror. Analysts made the same mistake 3 years ago when they continually labeled it a "defense company" because most of its revenue, at the time, came from defense business.
    Mar 12 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce.com Can't Tell You Where Its Revenues Come From [View article]
    This could be management's end game approach: "We knew nothing. It was all just a big database error."
    Mar 7 11:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • America's Car-Mart Is 23% Overvalued [View article]
    I have to agree and give a nod to Mr. Vellucci. I had a long position for about 2 years and the discussion here lead me to revisit my investment and sold it on the way down.

    I think its a good company but I see the immediate future as a lose lose scenario, in regards to market valuation and perception. If the credit markets get any easier then they will have difficult time with competition. If they get chilly, they the whole market will sell off including CRMT.
    Feb 19 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baseline Scenario: Salesforce.com Tanks Post Earnings [View article]
    @CrimsonCap Do you want to see what else is artificial? Look at the tape today...
    Feb 10 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baseline Scenario: Salesforce.com Tanks Post Earnings [View article]
    @CustomerSat "Professionally managed" does not equate to "institutional ownership." You should brush up on your definitions. For starters, you can contemplate about how separately managed accounts (SMAs) would be classified in terms of ownership.
    Feb 10 07:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baseline Scenario: Salesforce.com Tanks Post Earnings [View article]
    Crimson, your reasoning that institutions carry the smart money depends on which institutions and what kind. However, let's assume that you are correct and that most of the smart money is with institutions and that CRM is an AMAZING investment. This would explain possibly a greater or high ownership percentage by institutions but it would not explain an almost COMPLETE ownership by institutions because to do so would imply that there are virtually NO smart retail investors (or other investors that do not classify as traditional institutions). Quite simply, it is "odd and unnatural" because I challenge you to show me that there are similar cases out there.
    Feb 9 09:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Baseline Scenario: Salesforce.com Tanks Post Earnings [View article]
    Salesforce is currently priced at more than $37 billion because the convertible debt and options expense in the pipeline. Microsoft has most of its cash overseas so it would be very expensive to bring to the US. If they buy Saleforce, which is a funny idea to entertain, what kind of write-off do they need to do for Dynamics?

    The PPS for Saleforce and what drives it has a lot less to do with the fundamental value of the business and purported growth, and more to do with who owns the shares and how they dictate the market. Name another publicly traded company near $37 billion market cap that is 100% owned by institutions. Why does virtually no one else want to own the stock? Does that not strike you as odd and artificial?

    This is why it would be dangerous to assume it will react in a logical fashion to information released in earnings reports.
    Feb 9 05:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baseline Scenario: Salesforce.com Tanks Post Earnings [View article]
    At the current valuation and implied dilution it would cost MSFT about $70 billion to buy out Salesforce. Not going to happen.
    Feb 9 12:13 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
89 Comments
110 Likes