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Poncho 462

Poncho 462
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  • Molycorp And 'The Pain Ahead' [View article]
    wGraves et al--- You seem to think that Molycorp's acquisition of Neo Materials will permit technology transfer from China to Japan. Yet you also talk of the heightened REE Cold War between the two nations, with the US also involved. This raises a couple of difficult questions:

    1. Molycorp Canada(a misnomer if there ever was one) is primarily located within mainland China, with over a million square feet of processing facility capability. China has utter and complete control over REE operations and import/export of REE products across their borders. MCP might be able to smuggle out knowledge, but not much product, IMO, if China says "NO!"

    2. Molycorp's separated production from Mtn Pass, when it occurs, will not necessarily be allowed by the US government to be exported to China as it is considered "Strategic Material". There are therefore not one but two nations currently involved on opposite sides of a WTO trade dispute with reasons to block transportation of MCP's REE material of any sort, raw or finished, across their borders.

    It would seem therefore, that MCP is doomed, without resolution of these international disputes, to failure in it's goal of operating an integrated production supply line, since it would have to cross one barrier exiting the US,(who supports and is supported by, Japan), and another exporting processed materials(metals, magnets, other REE materials) from China while under control of China's export restrictions. So.....MCP looks to be restricted to operating in the US without the anticipated processing ability of MCP "Canada" in China, with huge surplus production of La and Ce oxides coming online almost simultaneously from Mtn Pass, The Lynas LAMP, and Chinese other approved exports, which will total in 2013 at least 3 times the ROW's demand for these products in 2011. We have not seen the bottom in pricing of these LREE products, if supply/demand history is any indicator.

    Bluntly, the revenues from sales of those LREE products would appear headed for further drastic reductions, and MCP "Canada's" operations and sales will be restricted to Chinese approved suppliers and customers, at internal (lower) Chinese prices. That is the "Pain Ahead" for Molycorp. IMO.
    Sep 24, 2012. 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Heavy Rare Earth Space: Molycorp May Grab Headlines, But Other Companies Offer More Upside [View article]
    Toly--both MCP and Lynas have lost half their share price within the last 90 days, and that is with the last couple of weeks slight uptrend.

    MCP's claim, like most of their other claims, that they have suddenly discovered HREE in their 40 year old, well explored mine, is completely unsupported. Read their own releases and you will see that other than the miracle 'find', they say nothing more in support. The historic grade of Dysprosium at Mountain Pass is less than 10% (0.05%) of Mt. Weld's(0.58%), for example, and will require the processing of huge amounts of ore to gain tiny returns. Ucore's Bokan Mtn historic grade is 3.89%, or about 7 times Mt Weld, and 78 times that of MCP. AND...MCP is not an operating Mine. Period. Their potential production of ANYTHING from their own mine is farther in the future than their claim that they will be producing HREE's within 12 months. They have their pilot plant producing small amounts from their stockpile of old concentrate, which was mined years ago. They will not meet their 1 year goal because it is not possible in the real world, and they have no real plan in place to achieve it.

    Lynas at least has a producing mine, currently building stockpiles of concentrate, which they will need to transport through Fremantle Port, which may face local resistance, to the Malaysian LAMP facility, which is nearly complete but has no local permits to begin operation, and still faces strong local political resistance.

    Lynas may get their plant started on pre-production bug-shooting mode by the end of the year, IF they get their permits, which I hope they do, as I have recently bought some shares in that hope. The biggest problem I see is their immense 1.7 billion shares outstanding, which will limit the ultimate price per share, even when things get moving.

    For myself, I sold all my MCP shares quite a while ago, based on the fact that the words coming out of their mouths do not match the actions they have taken(or not taken, as the case may be), and I have bet that Lynas will get a good bump with hoped for permit announcements, followed by drifting price based on inevitable delays in actual production tonnage and the share dilution created by that 1.7 billion shares outstanding.

    Neither of these companies has shown very much foresight in their operations, with MCP claiming goals they cannot possibly achieve, and Lynas building a major, very expensive, facility in an area with known history of opposition, using a Thai contractor instead of locals, further irritating same, with no permits for operation. Neither Mark Smith nor Nick Curtis get high marks as credible leaders, IMO.
    Oct 13, 2011. 02:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rare Earth Elements' New Trend [View article]
    This is a very nice presentation, and quite educational as to the processes and plant requirements. It says the LAMP will be complete and ready to produce in Sept. 2011. Tomorrow September begins. Can you tell me when production will actually begin? If it is delayed further, could you tell me why?

    The phase one and phase two targets are only valid if there is actual production. I notice that the concentration plant is functional, but apparently has no place to ship the concentrate at this time. They may not be ignoring the issue, but they do seem to be dancing around it pretty vigorously.
    Aug 31, 2011. 01:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mickey Fulp on Whether the Rare Earth Elements Cartel Could Dictate Juniors' Future [View article]
    Amen...The mercenary content of this 'article' is readily apparent. MCP has paid for your trip to Silmet, so you talk nice about both, but they have no actual plan, which you admit without admitting it.

    Your total exclusion of mention of Great Western Mineral Group is further proof of your lack of objectivity in the Sector.

    Fact: GWMG is right now renovating the existing mine at Steenkampskraal, South Africa, has all permits etc, and will be in production by 4th Q 2012, shipping most to it's wholly owned subsidiary LCM in the the UK, and also to GWTI in Michigan, also wholly owned, for refining into high purity REE products for, Among others Aichi Steel, part of the Toyota group of companies.

    Fact: This information refutes your credibility as an objective REE
    sector writer, as multiple times above, you note that it will take years etc to bring any of these junior miners to production etc. If you want to be taken seriously, you have to stop taking whatever it is besides free trips in exchange for puff pieces like the above, as it relates to MCP/Silmet when you ignore the one company that will be in production and profitable within the next 18 Months, namely Great Western Mineral Group, a multinational, $ 300 million, 25 year old company with customers lining up for product, that you cannot be unaware of if you claim any knowledge to write about this sector.

    You are just like 'The Strategist', who also pumps MCP on this site for similar reasons, and you must know what he is.
    Jun 23, 2011. 10:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Cashed Up' REEs Ready to Go [View article]
    You have focussed on companies who have 'cashed up' prepratory to beginning projects, but have completely skipped over GWMG's already underway project at Steenkampskraal, South Africa, which with all permits in hand, and construction starting NEXT WEEK on the refurbishment of the existing mine, looks to be the actual winner in this race. Here's a link to some information you all may find interesting.
    Jun 15, 2011. 10:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Western Minerals begins refurbishment of mine shaft at Steenkampskraal [View instapost]
    "Rare earth production by the end of 2012" Check on when the other non-China companies will be in production. And this production will go to GWMG's wholly owned subsidiaries LCM and GWTI for processing into salable oxides and chlorides as well as magnet metals and exotic REE containing alloys and magnets. This is the real 'mine to magnets' player. All of these products will multiply the profits from the Steenkampskraal mine through the benefits of vertical integration.
    Jun 12, 2011. 08:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing in Rare Earth Mining Companies – It’s All About the People [View instapost]
    Having just read a reasonably coherent description of one company's situation, Lynas, I cannot help but ask why your title/headline makes no sense in terms of the content of the piece. I expected at least a list of executives, and why they are able to bring a company to success, perhaps their business history, education, etc. And since Lynas is the only company discussed, perhaps a title change would be in order?

    "Investing in Lynas, my thoughts on why they are a good company".

    Your title says "..Rare Earth Companies.." Would you care to list those companies referred to in the piece?

    I realize your primary job is not to be a writer, but you are writing, and being published online, and you should make some effort to make your title match your article. I would suggest in the future that you do as the newspaper industry has always done, which is write the piece, and then have an editor or other knowledgeable person write the title or 'headline'.

    You can write anything you want, but let's not waste readers time by mislabelling your product. This is a Lynas promotion, and has no relation to the title above it. I am a former reporter and editor. If you are going to put your work before the public, learn a little about the business before you publish your next piece.
    Apr 17, 2011. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Western Minerals Group Valuation Is Not So Great [View article]
    The 'Strategist' said in his post/blog/hit piece above that the latest information from GWMG was 3rd Quarter results, and that is the numbers he quotes. This post is dated 4/15/11. GWMG released it's full 2010 financials on 3/31/11, two weeks before he wrote this.

    If there is anyone left who credits this person with any knowledge or credibility, please check the link below for proof he is at least incompetent to write about this company, and just perhaps, a paid liar.
    Apr 17, 2011. 03:26 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Western Minerals Group Valuation Is Not So Great [View article]
    That was 2 months ago. Jack bought back in since. And has continued to express confidence that GWMG is certainly among the top 3 or 4 REE investments, even when he did not hold personally. His recent BNN interview verified this. Please note also he did not mention MCP in his choices. Today's price is today's price, and price does not predict the longer term success of any company. Good management, history of growth, acquisition of valued subsidiaries whose growth is documented over years, not in press releases of "plans", and ownership of raw materials supply for LCM and GWTI at essentially production cost, will assure GW's success and future SP growth based on performance, not promises.

    Strategist should explain why MCP insiders have been selling, and GW insiders buying their own stock. That would make an interesting and relevant blog.
    Apr 17, 2011. 03:07 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment