My field for 30 years has been consulting to corporations, and government on issues related to strategic planning, work design, change management, leadership development and coaching management teams to improve their decision making on critical issues. One of my strong interests is systems theory which I have studied extensively in terms of cybernetics, biology, anthropology, systems dynamics, socio-technical systems. In trading and investing systems thinking concepts can often be mapped across to this domain. For example one concept is at the extremes things turn into their opposites. Also true in the field of human emotions is that when things are just about to turn into their opposites - switch from a bullish to a bearish technical picture or a bearish to a bullish one people in the aggregate are firmly committed to the wrong point of view (the importance of tracking sentiment). The pull to join them in this perspective can be strong, so tools are required to warn one of when the picture is about to change. What kind of tools? Markets move in cycles - trading cycles - 8 -10 weeks, intermediate cycles 18-22 weeks on average, yearly cycles, and longer term cycles. When a trading/investment vehicle gets a certain percent above a 250 day MA risk increases, RSI's of various durations on 60 minute, daily and weekly charts can show positive or negative divergence near turning points. Elliot Wave and Fib retracements can help determine the significance of these other patterns.
Domenick R Fumai, CMA
Mr. Fumai most recently held the position of Senior Portfolio Manager at AIG Investments and was responsible for a $70bn global corporate bond portfolio. Prior to that, he was a senior credit analyst covering the automotive and industrial sectors.
Previously, he was employed at BNP Paribas as a senior credit analyst following the same industries. His team was voted top research team in global automotive research by Euromoney Magazine and third in Credit Magazine’s investor survey. Mr. Fumai has appeared frequently on Bloomberg TV, Bloomberg Radio, CNN fn, and CNN International. He has also been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times and the Financial Times on the automotive sector.
Prior to joining BNP Paribas, he was a senior high yield analyst at UBS covering the steel, metals and mining industries.
Domenick holds an MBA from NYU Stern School of Business and received a BS degree in Public Accounting from Fordham University, where he graduated Summa Cum Laude. Mr. Fumai also holds the Certified Management Accountant (CMA) designation.
Hi I'm Energy Derivatives trader in a CTA fund in Hong Kong and provide consulting service to two assets managing firms.
I finalize my research in Natural Gas and LNG for my MBA and in process of this, developed strategy for directional natural gas futures trading in NYMEX.
The main Idea is in following the sentiment of the hedgers/speculators and taking the trades in the direction of the market. The approach is fully systematized/formalized/programmed/calibrated by myself and no discretion are.
The decisions are based on dividing the market on the different phases/cycles based in COT reports data, EIA reports, volatility, weather/seasons and market data from energy exchanges then open long/short positions based on the proprietary quantitative trading strategies only in the phase that is suitable for this type of exposure. And do not play against the market “sentiment”.
I replicate the strategy with ETFs (DGAZ/UNG) on the www.marketocracy.com resource to track public the performance. But my specialization is derivatives markets and sure that best results will be in direct derivatives trading.
I DO NOT RECOMMEND TO FOLLOW ME AND OPEN TRADES BASED ON MY OPINION. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING ENERGY FUTURES IS SUBSTANTIAL.
Feel free to contact me for any related to my experience areas.
I'm a well-informed retail investor and post on SA in order to expose my thought process to critical examination and comment from readers. It makes me a better investor.
I'm particularly proud of bullish macro articles posted in 2009 and later, in which I presented ideas that encouraged me to invest very profitably in a rising market. I also did articles on individual stocks, many of which contained insights not available elsewhere. Finally, I wrote a number of thoughtful articles critical of financialism and the lack of ethics on Wall Street.
I do not post for compensation, as I am concerned that editorial policy encourages and pays a premium for articles that invite the reader to speculate on the short term movements of microcaps, penny stocks, and controversial issues. The best way for me to monetize my insights is to invest accordingly.
As a retail investor, I don't give investment advice. I write about what I'm investing in, and the thought process involved in decision making and stock selection. Hopefully some of what I write is of benefit to others, by sharing my experience as I interpret it and helping them improve their investment thinking and process.
PLEASE SEE WEBSITE FOR FULL DISCLAIMER: WWW.PUMPSTOPPER.COM
I produce high quality, original research free of charge for the public good. Please see the website for more information, and subscribe to The Pump Stopper email list to receive free, high quality research reports before the rest.
I am always committed to publishing the accurate truth. If you are involved with a company that has been mentioned in a report and find any factual errors, please submit a dispute to Seeking Alpha and it will be reviewed.
If you have any tips on companies misleading investors, please submit them on The Pump Stopper website. I always welcome collaboration and have absolute respect for your anonymity. There are multiple ways to submit documents anonymously, as outlined on the website, and I strongly recommend you send information this way.
And remember to always invest wisely.
Chris DeMuth Jr. is the founder of Rangeley Capital LLC. Rangeley is an investment firm that focuses on event driven, value-oriented investment opportunities. Rangeley Capital and his value investing forum, Sifting the World (StW), search the world for misplaced bets. Rangeley exploits them for its investors and then Mr. DeMuth writes about them on StW.
I am a high school teacher for a decade.
Before that I was an analyst (operations and financial) and for a short time a Controller
I have a B.S. with an emphasis in Accounting and an MBA (for which I studied Finance, Economics, and Management)
I passed the CPA exam on the first try and am a retired CPA in the state of Maryland.
I have a high school teaching credential and an MA in Math Education
A Canadian in China, living here for the last 12 years and travelling to China for the last 30 years. I own and manage a medical device manufacturing company in Shanghai. My investment interest is long term capital appreciation.
David Dierking is an analyst and writer focusing primarily on ETFs, mutual funds, dividend income strategies and retirement planning. He is a current contributor for Seeking Alpha, ETF Daily News, MutualFunds.com and ETFdb.com. He was also included in the panel for ETFReference.com’s “101 ETF Investing Tips from the Experts”.
If you're interested in learning more about dividend income strategies, retirement and ETF analysis, please consider following me by clicking on the "Follow" button at the top of this page next to my name.
In addition, you can find me on:
Twitter - @david_dierking
LinkedIn - David Dierking
Website - ETF Focus
I am a former Investment and Commercial Banker with over 30 years experience in the field. I have been advising both individuals and institutional clients on high-yield investment strategies since 1991. As author of “High Dividend Opportunities”, a premium subscription service at Seeking Alpha, my objective is to bring investors the most profitable and newest high dividend ideas, with special focus on the Energy sector. The service includes an actively managed model Portfolio targeting an overall dividend yield of 6-9% in addition to long-term capital gains. My research aims to maximize returns by identifying undervalued securities in the High Yield space.
In addition to being a Certified Public Accountant CPA from the State of Arizona, I hold a BS Degree from Indiana University, Bloomington, and a Masters degree from Thunderbird School of Global Management (Arizona). I am also a Certified Mortgage Advisor CEMAP, a UK certification. My Research and Articles have been featured on Seeking Alpha, Investing.com, ETFdailynews, and on FXEmpire.
For more information on how to subscribe to “High Dividend Opportunities” and gain exclusive access to the portfolio, live alerts and market commentaries, check the post: Introduction to “High Dividend Opportunities” on my Instablog or just email me at email@example.com .
BS in Economics, MA in Public Policy (International Economic Policy). J is a well-known voice in the global shipping community, with unparalleled investment results and a penchant for activist investing.
Mintzmyer founded Value Investor's Edge, a top-ranked deep value research service in May 2015, with the goal of establishing a top-tier community of deep value investors and activists. Value Investor's Edge subscribers leverage exclusive in-depth analytic reports and community investment experience to discover disconnects in global shipping and a variety of other beaten down sectors.
TipRanks.com ranked Mintzmyer’s performance in the top 3% of all global analysts at the end of 2015 for his 2-year investment performance. While compiling his research, Mintzmyer has interviewed numerous management teams at public maritime firms, and has worked with a multitude of investors. His exclusive analysis has received numerous 'Top Idea,' 'Must Read,' and 'Small Cap Insight' awards.
J is a CFA candidate and investment enthusiast who utilizes Seeking Alpha to provide an open exchange of both trading and investment ideas. Masters in Public Policy, with focus on International Security & Economic Policy from the University of Maryland, College Park. Distinguished Graduate of the United States Air Force Academy with a B.S. in Economics. President of Mintzmyer Investments LLC, a financial services company specializing in equity research and hedge fund advisory.
Extensive background in financial analysis, equity research, accounting, portfolio management, and customized asset allocation through nearly a decade of formalized education, personal studies, and practical experience. Avid reader of business/investments and biographies.
Legal Disclaimer: Any related contributions to Seeking Alpha, or elsewhere on the web, are to be construed as personal opinion only and do NOT constitute investment advice. An investor should always conduct personal due diligence before initiating a position. Provided articles and comments should NEVER be construed as official business recommendations. In efforts to keep full transparency, related positions will be disclosed at the end of each article to the maximum extent practicable. The majority of trades are reported live on Twitter, but this cannot be guaranteed due to technical constraints.
My premium service is a research and opinion subscription. No personalized investment advice will ever be given. I am not registered as an investment adviser, nor do I have any plans to pursue this path. No statements should be construed as anything but opinion, and the liability of all investment decisions reside with the individual. Although I do my utmost to procure high quality information, investors should always do their own due diligence and fact check all research prior to making any investment decisions. Any direct engagements with readers should always be viewed as hypothetical examples or simple exchanges of opinion as nothing is ever classified as “advice” in any sense of the word.
I am a value conscious investor looking for bargains.
1) Price is what you pay, value is what you get
2) Success in investing is limiting losses when you're wrong, and maximizing gains when you're right
3) Start with business model. Margins reflect value add a company's products bring to the market place. Does the Gross Margin and the Product match? High GMs accompany differentiated products with limited competition that do not compete on price. Low GMs accompany undifferentiated products that compete on price, CAPEX spend, cyclicality.
4) How is the business financed? Be wary of companies with a lot of debt. Great businesses do not require huge debt to generate high returns on equity. There is no achievement in generating high ROEs by levering up like banks, leasing businesses (car rental, equipment rental, aircraft rental). ROA should be telling here.
4) A company's value changes because the NPV of future profits changes. NPV of future profits is a function of changes in revenues, gross margins, OPEX, leverage, taxation. A company's value appreciates when the NPV of profits goes up due to revenue growth, GM expansion, OPEX reduction, leverage (refinancing) / tax (change of domicile) reduction.
5) Markets look forward. Bottoms coincide with maximum pessimism while tops coincide with maximum euphoria.
6) A stock is not undervalued because it is cheap and it is not overvalued because it is expensive (based on traditional valuation metrics). Similarly, a stock is not undervalued because it has gone down a lot or overvalued because it has gone up a lot.
7) Look at market cap when valuing companies. Don't be overly influenced by management projections, analyst reports, share buybacks, cash on B/S, price movements, other people in the stock.
8) Companies with significant debt can go bankrupt. Cash burn typically determines if they go bankrupt before the cycle (for their industry or the economy) turns.
9) Undervalued stocks can get cheaper, overvalued stocks can get more expensive.
10) Keep emotion out of investing. You will be wrong. Unpredictable things will happen. Stay vigilant to anger, anxiety, exuberance. Stay vigilant to thesis creep.
11) Leverage will kill you sooner or later. Companies have large operating and financial leverage.
12) Have a thesis. If the thesis plays out, stay with it. If it doesn't exit. Always have a thesis.
13) Understand the business you are invested in. It's valuation and what can go wrong. Know the business inside out.
13) Don't trade.
14) Diversify. There are many good ideas in the market. Don't put your eggs in one basket.
15) Failing businesses rarely turnaround.
I have installed Enphase solar photovoltaic systems for 6 years. I have taken solar courses onsite at SEI in Paonia, Colorado, and I have helped GridAlternatives.org in Colorado install Enphase solar PV systems on low-income family houses. I am a huge fan of solar PV, and I believe free energy from the Sun is the only way to go to insure a bright future for the human race. The fossil fuels should be left in the ground where they belong! Furthermore, the Sun should be used to break the backs of the energy monopolies and decentralize power to the people much like Enphase has mastered with their wonderful microinverter solar technology.
Investor. Mission: Help people make money. Degree: Chemistry from NC State University. Featured author of Momentum Options Weekly Wrap (http://momentumoptionstrading.com/ )
Follow me on Motley Fool Caps at http://caps.fool.com/player/modestus1.aspx .
For short-term ideas about big movers, follow my StockTalks. But please note I am not the best short term stock picker. I am 7-0-1 in the long term, but 0-3 in the short term. If you want better short term pickers, I recommend Michael Filloon and Alfred Little.
Over the last 12 years, I am 7-4-1. I was up 130%, 29%, 15%, 3%, 19%, 25%, 56% from 2001-2007 respectively, and down 39%, 39%, 79% from 2008-2010 respectively. In 2011, I was flat, but some ill-timed trades (should have held AG) caused a loss of 17% and 14% in 2012 and 2013. Note: gains and losses include transaction costs. 2009 and 2010, I traded frequently, adding up transaction costs. That is why I favor longterm holding over shortterm trading.
I invest in all stocks. I don't agree that US stocks are the safest. Want a safe stock, try TEVA. It did not fall much, or at all, during the credit crisis. And generics are the future.
Being a chemistry graduate, I tend to focus of the drug, medical, biotech, and chemical industries. So far, I wrote about 5 medical companies (RPC, OREX, KV.A, PLX, & XOMA). OREX and KV.A were right on target, though KV.A has fallen back hard after reaching their highs, which surprised me. PLX was half right: it did get a negative letter from the FDA, but the options strategy was wrong. For RPC, so far, I have been wrong, and exited my position in mid-May. XOMA also has fallen since I wrote about it.
However, I also cover diverse stocks, from BIDU to NCT. Ignoring other industries is a big mistake. I look for stocks I find undervalued on both a value perspective and a growth perspective, but placing more emphasis on growth. I combine both fundamental and technical analysis. The fundamentals only tell you part of the story.
Anybody can make money. Don't let Wall Street analysts manipulate you. Their analysis is good, but don't take everything they say. Good luck investing, and I will do everything I can to make you money.
Oh, and I invest in rather risky stocks with high potentials. If you are nearing retirement, I don't recommend you copy my portfolio. I will label my stocks with the risk/reward factor. I am adding a watch list with some stocks for retirement investors that I like. All watch list stocks are long term holdings.
BRK.B (very low risk/medium reward)
NRZ (medium risk/medium reward)
EXK (medium risk/medium reward)
NCT (medium risk/high reward)
HOV (medium risk/high reward)
AMD (medium risk/high reward)
MCOA (high risk/very high reward)
RGSE (very high risk/high reward)
SUNE (extremely high risk/very high reward)
AG (medium risk/medium reward)
YRCW (very high risk/very high reward)
GTIM (medium risk/high reward)
BOJA (medium risk/high reward)CVRR (medium risk/high reward)SWKS (medium risk/high reward)JAZZ (medium risk/high reward)NFLX (medium risk/high reward)
LVS (medium risk/high reward)
SAM (medium risk/high reward)
CMG (medium risk/high reward)
ZNH (medium risk/high reward)
RDY (medium risk/high reward)
MNK (medium risk/high reward)
YZC (low risk/high reward)
AVGO (low risk/medium reward)
CF (low risk/high reward)TTM (low risk/high reward)
NVO (low risk/high reward)
BIDU (low risk/high reward)
PCLN (low risk/high reward)
CLF (low risk/medium reward)
AAPL (low risk/medium reward)
GOOG (low risk/medium reward)
TEVA (low risk/medium reward)
CIM (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock
TNH (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock
GOL (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock