tlc8386

Why the Stock Market Should Crash

Totally agree what we are seeing is re-adjustments of value be it RE, business, the dollar in a deflationary environment. Many stocks are sporting lower PE's with decent divy's this is where you want to be for the so called crash which is what we experienced last year what we have now is the re-adjustment period of getting rid of bad businesses who were over leveraged, poor financials, thin margins.

Those who survive cut costs, got rid of dead wood, found new markets those who cried got killed. People are still spending you can't change poor habits in one year. They are just not spending as much. So we are chasing different dollars and the market has to adjust to this.

Employment is washing out the poor workers keeping the top working ones. Those who lose need to find a new gig, those jobs are gone. And because of this one reason is why we are not crashing because those top employees are still spending. Example would be the must have products for those type of people such as I-phone and the Storm.


On Nov 16 05:52 PM Adel Antado wrote:

> Nice article on why real-estate is on the decline, but the article
> does not speak to reasons why the stock-market will suddenly crash.
>
>
> The reality is that high-unemployment has always been good for the
> market since it puts downward pressure upon the cost of labor providing
> cheaper goods and services and higher profits for shareholders.
>
>
> What I see is a slower trend and narrower swings as our economy readjusts
> to tighter money at higher costs, the efficient companies doing much
> better than the market average while the less-efficient ones decline
> or disappear.Isn't that part of the cycle? The remaining companies
> will be more efficient and profitable substaining the market and
> more growth.

Not All Dividend Stocks Are Overvalued

What you are missing is the compounding factor in owning stocks with dividends.

As for taxes on these if they are not in a IRA or Roth and not a MLP which you pay taxes on when you sell such as Kinder Morgan, (KMR) perform much like a stock split.

So not all dividend stocks cause you to pay taxes on them each time they distribute. And if you hold them in retirement funds even better.

Most Money Market funds are paying under 1% now so these lower paying dividend stocks are still better than cash especially if you bought them last year when the market crashed. They have returned 50% since then. And if you reinvested your dividends you even made more money compounded your investment.

You have to ask yourself what does the annunity invest IN---to get that kind of gain without Risk---

What About 'All That Cash on the Sidelines'?

The move has already been made by those who had to move their cash out of the .1% or less now in interest rates for MM funds. This is how we got this far up 46% since March. Rotation had to happen but yes some cash did not move because of the high risk owning stocks.

I would suggest doing a search on dividend paying stocks to see how much new money went into them especially those down with the rest of the fall. Those are now up 50% and holding.

As for health care the big miss is the CEO pay in healthcare which is the sole fraud of the entire system. Look what this one doctor wrote from webMD.

blogs.webmd.com/mad-ab...

California: The Haves and Have-Nots

When you do some DD and see how much governement workers not only get paid but their pensions you know why the working class citizens voted no to all the new taxes--they rape us. They also collect at least 50% higher pay for their so called job vs. the private citizen. And yet no one has cut their pay only services--they are all pigs in my mind.

insane high pay for ca state workers---
www.sacbee.com/1098/st...

5 Lessons for the Next Financial Mania

excellent article

Equities: In the Eye of the Storm

Well I am 50 no debt as well--and I will say it's not the boomers but those yuppies in the 80's that over bought--we all own our houses--have cash--worked hard for a living and pay the most taxes!

"Reluctant Banks" Let Defaulted Borrowers Stay in Homes

The banks had every opportunity to freeze these rates (Dec. 07) until they could assess what the problem was but they refused to do so. Many took the equity out of the homes for those that just left when their mortgage doubled. Those people were the ones who really lost their equity if they had any as well as their credit rating. Along with their home.

When it became too much to handle now the banks are saying stay in your home until we get to you and figure out what we can do. Well now you have homeowners who will defraud the banks and stay and not pay.

And do you blame them they were given a loan they did not understand and/ or were lied about what would happen when their rate would go up or get stuck not being able to refinance. NO one can afford a double on their mortgage when most people go out to 50% of their income just to buy a home.

And then we have the speculators who bought mulitple homes with cheap money who have saturated the market. So until demand meets up with supply we will have continued price decreases.

The banks need to get the fraud out of these loans and reduce these fees along with mortgages rates at a fair stable rate. So buyers can come back into this market.

With so much fraud in these loans why would any one want to buy an assest that is depreciating.

Herb Greenberg Calls Out Larry Kudlow

Larry Kudlow only see things perched on his top 1% of the population--he has health care--he has a pension--he has stocks--he is rich. It causes them to become totally blind to the rest of the 99%.

Dave Fry's Market Outlook for Wednesday

Well I have to say what a day---up and down and up and down---I took another walk and missed the leg down--(had to get fresh air)

I am thinking a lot of this has to do with options expiring this Friday.

The calls and puts are fighting it out to gain their position or at least come out of this mess.

Meanwhile seeing stocks go up and down shows you NO faith in the latest news of walmart---and fear is still out there

what this tells us is that any gains will be taken out---for how long I don't know if it will continue on after Friday's option expire---or till next week---

I have the feeling with more news out of the financials and more uncertainty that we have to be extremely careful--because where ever you see gains of late you are seeing that stock being sold off.

As for Benanke I hope he does nothing and allows this correction in inflation to continue to lower prices---if he floods the market with more money it will stop the correction.---dollar will drop more--gold and oil up---and stock market will continue to flucuate---more cheap money will only hurt us now---what I really want is for him to allow his moves to do their work--but not to sink the dollar any more.

You see some of this working with Walmart lowering their prices---housing has to come down---slower economy will cause pricing pressure and eventually lower inflation---but if Bernanke goes to far with rate cuts he will take out interest income as well---

He has to allow this correction to repair itself.

And the bankers have to reset their loans---I feel that is a seperate issue and should be addressed instead of it running into the overall economy causing this fear in credit.

Loss of construction jobs ect, materials can't be stopped due to demand--but they can stop the bleeding into the credit markets if only they wanted too----

Options Trader: Weekly Wrap-Up

Excellent article--"Just another Manic Monday" was also superior!! Great work!!!

Homes No Longer Affordable To the Average American

Finally someone gets it right!!! One thing not to forget is the tax situation---out here in Southern CA we have taxes that are out of control---mello roos--very high association costs--and then the state tax--insurance is also expensive if you add in earthquake.
It's not unheard of paying upwards of 20k in these taxes on our typical house here in CA. And a 5k a month mortgage is the norm. No wonder no one can afford to live here and foreclosures are booming out here. Everyone is taking from the homeowner!!!

I Love the Smell of Repos in the Morning...

It's just not the fraud of bad vs. good credit it is the over inflated housing prices that were continually pushed higher by overbidding in various methods that are questionable in some areas if not the majority.
You have to ask yourself who gained when percentages and commissions are paid out.
The higher the price the higher the pay.
And the promise of higher selling prices consumed the consumer into a tizzie of potential profits.

The Market's Unlikely To Take Any Fed Action Positively

Roger are you kidding us?

Tune Out The Hype Machine

Ditto!!!!

Tune Out The Hype Machine

Ditto!!!!