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I'm from Romania, living now in Chicago. i have an engineer degree but i'm interested in more freelance opportunities type of business. so with that in mind i started to trade analysis is based on the "psycho-technical" side(Auction Market Theory, Volume Spread Analysis,... More
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    ->in the last 3 months we had inside month every next month, so this could be capitulation but what's sure it's we have allot of auction rotations in this area and once the market decide to look for new price to facilitate the trade it will be a significant move.

    ->if you use the Weiss principle, the up waves start to look tired and the down waves start to get life.

    ->last 3 weeks closed well off the high

    ->conclusion: lately we have allot of effort with no result, which implies hidden buyers!

    ->considering that the current IV=68.67% is almost equal to HV but is much bigger than VIX, i think is pretty safe for a credit spread strategy.

    (click to enlarge)


    ->last few weeks bond market knew a big rally and i think is kind of hard to predict the direction in bonds, considering all the things which have an influence.

    -> /ZB which is the 30 year future contract is pretty bullish but the TLT contract shows some hidden sellers in Friday up move, we had a very high volume closing below the open and well off high.

    ->watch the future contract for more signs and watch the TLT gap and followed reactions

    (click to enlarge)

    Tags: BBRY, TLT
    Apr 07 11:36 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Stocks & ETF's To Watch: FDX, HPQ, LNKD, NFLX, X, CORN, FXY


    ->this week revealed that the sellers still have the power over buyers and even though we still have some hidden buyers in the down move after the earnings gap it seems we are not quite there yet. the initiative sellers stepped in after we got in last month VAL and now the next target is 94$ area.

    (click to enlarge)


    ->we made a gap on Tuesday and till now we failed to close it, having auction rotations acceptance in a previous supply area. if we fail to close the gap and go below this week i will look for a bearish strategy to get involved.


    ->it seems like we have a distribution in this case considering Wyckoff logic and i looked today for a up day on low volume with the close somewhere off high, instead we got wide spread and high volume which could imply strength and responsive buyers once we auctioned below last month value.

    either way could be a good opportunity to step in and use a credit spread, considering the IV=~43%

    (click to enlarge)

    NFLX-confirmed my bearish view and now the above principle could apply...

    X-the US steel had a bad time this week but if you watch the volume you can see is much higher then usual volume from last months and Wednesday we had high volume with the close off low followed by a up close next day, this implies hidden buyers and of course potential strength. a down day next week on low volume followed by a up day with close above this test is the prefect recipe for a strong up move.

    (click to enlarge)

    CORN-it somehow similar with X with one exception, yesterday closed below the test day but on very low volume though. i think some auction rotation in this area will follow next week but if the things stay the same i favor an up move.

    FXI-is at long term demand area and shwos some strength, watch it closely.

    Apr 05 3:31 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Stocks To Watch: FB, MCD, MSFT, NFLX


    ->on 27th we found some buyers at previous demand area but based on Auction Market Theory principles the profile for that day resembled with P letter reflecting a potential short covering rally instead of new buyers. on 28th we had a sell off and the POC moved lower and closed the day on the low, making a poor low(meaning we need to revisit the area).


    ->failed to close the gap and now retest the highs, I'm not sure though if we really have new buyers or just some capitulation off the sellers who thought it's a good idea to sell the gap. so we have some potential short covering rally and some kind of test on weekly chart. could we see some rally?

    (click to enlarge)


    ->this could be the start of a new rally, we have on Thursday a healthy move with high volume and high value ? since November last year we have 2 overlapping high value areas which means we have allot of auctions rotations and now market decided to go look for acceptance higher which if is accepted could have a high amplitude move. i would love to see a down day on low volume(test) and after i would initiate a long strategy when we retouch the high of the test day.

    (click to enlarge)


    ->i'm still bearish and could have a better entry now. if you check my previous posts you will see what i mean...

    Tags: FB, MCD, MSFT
    Apr 01 4:01 AM | Link | Comment!
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