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I'm from Romania, living now in Chicago. i have an engineer degree but i'm interested in more freelance opportunities type of business. so with that in mind i started to trade analysis is based on the "psycho-technical" side(Auction Market Theory, Volume Spread Analysis,... More
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  • NFLX Is In Distribution Or Reaccumulation?


    ->based on Weiss principals now we are in the longer down wave since we started to 'play' in this high value area but it's on light volume though.

    ->based on IV compared to HV, some kind of a credit spread is indicated...

    (click to enlarge)

    Tags: NFLX
    Mar 26 2:20 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Symbols To Play Next Week...


    ->it went below 2013 demand area and the buyers reaction amplitude was minimum. Friday we saw some decent up move reaction with unchanged value and lower POC but i think is mostly correlated with the s&p 500 move. the point now is to see the reaction at 'ice' if it move above or below on low volume it's time to find a bearish strategy, if it moves on high volume and maybe followed by a down day on low volume (test) then it's time to find a bullish approach.

    ->~30% implied volatility it's above historical and of course above VIX, so a credit type of spread could work. considering the high volume areas that this symbol has the tendency to make maybe a calendar spread it could be an interesting idea but keep in mind that the expected move for April expiration is ~16$.

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    ->it could be set for a retracement, we had a ND on Friday and the news are not the best. watch it closely.


    ->approximately the same view as in AMZN

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    ->approached a demand area with poor reaction of the buyers.


    ->last week we saw a very poor reaction of buyers above the demand area and correlated with the 2 weeks ago retracement. not clear enough for me yet to make up my mind but watch it closely next week.

    (click to enlarge)


    ->weekly chart looks pretty weak now...


    (click to enlarge)

    Mar 24 3:41 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Monday Trade Ideas


    ->it started an intermediate down trend move in January and now we are in the second leg of up retracement

    ->following the Weiss wave we can see, even i don't have the indicator yet, the up move happens on lower volume then down moves. indicates mostly just short covering rallies and not necessary smart money which get long.

    ->Friday we closed on no demand, which adds to the bearish view.

    ->we need to consider though we are inside of last month value area and we found acceptance back above VAL implying a good probability now to test VAH. Friday we overlapped the value area higher, thing which could mean this up retracement could continue a little more.

    ->a debit spread it would be more appropriate considering the low volatility but depends on overall portfolio and how buying time decay affects it. to have probability on your side you need to consider that 1 standard deviation move on April expiration is 2.13$...

    (click to enlarge)


    ->after we approached we had some profit taking and the stock started an horizontal move.

    ->a good retracement is indicated but every time we got near by 176$(MVAL) we found buyers.

    ->considering the decent IV we have one could open some type of credit put spread with the short strike or one of it at 176 and try to get not so much delta exposure...

    Mar 11 2:28 AM | Link | Comment!
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