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I'm from Romania, living now in Chicago. i have an engineer degree but i'm interested in more freelance opportunities type of business. so with that in mind i started to trade analysis is based on the "psycho-technical" side(Auction Market Theory, Volume Spread Analysis,... More
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  • Options Opportunities

    what i love about options is you don't need necessary to buy low and sell high or reverse, you can just adjust your strategy to fit the context.

    here are some examples of what i mean:

    CMG-we are in a new month and test the auction above last month value. the last days up move is made on bearish volume(steady or lower volume) and considering we are above value and under previous peak i see it more like the market is trying to facilitate the auction and we are near by the area where the sellers we will find the price fair to jump in. yesterday market moved the value higher and we close without an excess on upper side which implies an up move continuation for next day.

    so you could choose a debit spread or a credit but keep in mind the current volatility is not much above historical but a high probability for the market to be under 330 for near future but don't forget the 1SD expected move for April is ~32$, so partial profits or accepted losses if price approach 330 is required.

    (click to enlarge)

    GOOG-after market found balance around 800$ and got rejected under 790$ today it decided to seek for new opportunities on the upper side and the initiative up move was made on higher volume with the close on the high.

    the volatility is nice above historical and if you chose to sell a put kind of spread we need for stock just to keep above 790$ for example and you keep the nice premium even the stock drops or moves horizontal or even if it has a smaller retracement. but the probability of success is above 50%...

    Mar 05 7:36 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Just Confusion...

    AAPL-we had a neutral type of day from AMT(Auction Market Theory) point of view with close on lower half, implying more sellers than buyers. we have a lack of conviction and we are in a cluster area formed by some long term trend lines and intermediate horizontal lines. need to consider that Nasdaq had an up day while AAPL was down which combined with the effort we saw today to move the price below previous low and the result of it implies even more confusion:)

    bottom line is or to watch the open closely for some up move confirmation or if bearish to stay on the sides till things get more clear.

    DELL-it's seems to me bearish but need confirmation. more info on the chart...

    GLD-considering the present context i'm looking to get short on gold somewhere in 158 area cause i see this up move more like a short covering rally than new buyers stepping in.

    SPY-after yesterday we failed to find acceptance below previous day low and we close above open but on narrow spread compared with previous day, fact that implied the presence of buyers. today we got that confirmation much stronger than i thought but watching intra-day action on e-mini S&P500 futures we could see the up move was on declining volume which involves caution.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a short position in DELL over the next 72 hours.

    Feb 28 2:47 AM | Link | Comment!
  • My Chart Analysis For The Stock's & ETF's


    ->long term bearish view is more popular considering the overlapping lower value from last month.

    ->24 and 25 of january are the days where the buyers make their presence that considering VSA point of view where a high volume down bar with close of the low implies hidden buyers and if this is followed by an up bar next day we got confirmation of this strength. the place where the buyers appeared is known as a long term demand area considering the cluster made by long term horizontal reference and long term trend line.

    now i'm not very sure how genuine is this up move and if this is not just a short covering rally considering all from above, i guess we will find the answer when we finally we will close the gap which implies a change in attitude and how the stock will react at the round number 500. till then being inside of last month value area i will wait on the side. maybe a retouch on low volume of the cluster area or on high volume with close on the upper side will bring more proof of how serious the buyers are...

    (click to enlarge)


    we are in previous demand area and yesterday we gaped below MVAL, near by last month low. this brought the attention of the buyers and we closed the day on volume higher than average and off lows but on narrow spread, all this implies the buyers which stepped in but they didn't manage to close the day above the open. tomorrow open type it will provide us with more clues...initiative sellers or responsive buyers?

    (click to enlarge)

    Feb 12 2:10 AM | Link | Comment!
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