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redbirdtom

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  • Apple Is Going To Put The Hurt On Pandora [View article]
    Just a matter of time until someone mentioned SIRI radio.

    They have captured the market. Why do you think they would give up their great programming? NOT!

    Content is King and SIRI pays for it so you can pay them. Simple as that. Besides, music can't make a service last forever. Content does.

    Redbird
    Nov 11, 2014. 05:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Management Alters View On Subscribers [View article]
    SF, what is your opinion on which is better right now, SIRI or LMCA in terms of control down the line?

    With EOY approaching I am weighing the idea of taking some CG with SIRI and moving more over to LMCA. Plus, I do have some in qualified accounts so no CG on this portion.

    Still feel a RMT and with LMCA not participating with BB and their control approaching 60%, JM/LMCA owners will be the real winners. My 25% split of SIRI over to LMCA 2 years ago is now up 100%. Just feel the right side is being the owner and not the company being controlled.

    Redbird
    Nov 7, 2014. 04:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Management Alters View On Subscribers [View article]
    Baldy, I concur.

    Crunch you do an excellent job, but my only criticism is that you report the numbers as negatives (I have not trouble that you do) but you are still long. The short term gyrations mean little to me as long as the trends are still positive as Baldy stated.

    Don't get me wrong, I appreciate that the numbers need to be dissected, just not to the degree you sometimes do. Please don't stop, but realized that not everyone wants to do covered call options like you do. Some of us prefer to sit on what they have and not incur capital gains on large positions if they are called away.

    I have time and just wish I had extra cash right now to buy more when the price gets down to $3.30. Still feel $4.00 is achievable EOY or early 1st quarter of 2015 as your position suggests with the covered calls, but I will not bank on it. Time is on my side especially with their FCF so high and the chance of a RMT. I did great when LMCA spun out STRZA so my bet is on the RMT much further down the line.

    Any comments on the 7% convertible notes due in a month or so on the impact of the added shares that can then be traded?

    Redbird
    Nov 1, 2014. 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Pre-Announces Plans For More Tiered Pricing [View article]
    CN - if 8 million subs are lost per year....tiered pricing would at least save some of them and if they go "Free Content and get ad dollars, that would increase bottom line as well since they would have nothing from them. Plus, all those past lost 8 million per year. I agree with the MRF being a problem but you got to spend money to make money....

    My take is look at the big picture and see how does SIRI get subs in and then market the hell out of them to pay....starting with the Free sub (lower # of stations) Hell, I have rolled over several radios and I keep getting marketing pieces from SIRI to reactivate the radio. You would think that they would have the information in their system to know I no longer use it and have a new radio. Take these dollars and drive value from the FREE low tier sub.

    Rebird
    Sep 21, 2014. 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Pre-Announces Plans For More Tiered Pricing [View article]
    Really....you actually think that internet radio is the only option?

    My guess is you are in the 20-29 year old demographic that thinks they will cheat the system and never have to pay for anything. I was once there and now I pay for quality and what I like.

    Why does every young person think everyone just listens to music and podcast? I don't get it. NFL, MLB, NASCAR, PGA, NHL....these are the things that drive subs. Howard Stern is fine if you like that stuff....Maybe you don't and Joel Osteen is your guy....great....Music is music....artist come and go.

    The point here is listen to what you want....I personally would not want to listen to an old podcast. Give me live programming that is current and valuable.

    You will understand this in a few years when disposable income is a choice. Back to your mac and cheese and paper plates.

    Redbird
    Sep 21, 2014. 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Misinformation Disseminated On The Sirius XM Share Buyback [View article]
    CN, my take is that the 56% keeps growing and eventually JM will have so much that a offer would be on the table again. Only this time it might be worse.

    With LMCA doing all the spin-offs and such, it clouds the issue of what they really are up to.

    Two years ago I sold 25% of my SIRI and bought some LMCA. Has been nice gain as well. Kept me in the game as to playing both sides.

    I just about sold out of SIRI in Feb of this year, but SF commented about the tax situation and why sell if I still liked the SIRI story. Glad I did not. I just keep thinking that JM is the right side and he is sitting in the bushes waiting to get at the other 44% for a RMT or spin-off just like STRZA, LMCK etc.

    Redbird
    Aug 6, 2014. 05:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Is No Longer A Growth Stock [View article]
    We need to get the convertible 7% shares into the market. Then a true market cap and shares outstanding will emerge. End of Year will be the next run up wth a $3.00 - $3.50 range for next 6 months.
    Jul 8, 2014. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius CFO Discusses Subscribers And ARPU - What Are The Implications? [View article]
    CN, although I am more optimistic than you, I still gain insight from your posts.

    Keep writing and when I disagree, I may comment. We are on the same side here and not having a problem with a more conservative approach.

    Redbird
    Jun 10, 2014. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius CFO Discusses Subscribers And ARPU - What Are The Implications? [View article]
    I am not using the number to value the company as a balance sheet item. I am referring to FCF and money is already spent to make the birds fly as we speak. This is creating FCF now...not in 5 years...didn't even think about the blood and sweat to do it as well.

    Someone will see value in them. Not suggesting anyone in particular, just someone will see that the moat is there, paid for and throwing money at it for instant use is all I am talking about.

    I agree with SF, you need to realize the group here knows more than you do as a single person and that blanket statements will not make it past without scrutiny.

    Redbird
    Jun 10, 2014. 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius CFO Discusses Subscribers And ARPU - What Are The Implications? [View article]
    WSP - They are worth 5 years (Time of Money) to get them flying.....a lot of FCF booked at SIRI in this timeframe.

    Plus the cost, idk....but definitely multimillions of dollars just for the asset and that much more to launch.

    I will stay with the company that has the moat now and get scared when the catapults and armies get over it safely. Years away in my opinion.

    Redbird
    Jun 9, 2014. 08:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius CFO Discusses Subscribers And ARPU - What Are The Implications? [View article]
    APRU in of itself is always good to increase. However, when you combine it with increased paid users and FCF, I take Frear's explanation as not that big of deal.

    WSP, I know that you are trying to look at SIRI as over valued at the $5.00 Price target, however think of what the satellites are worth and tell me that is not a conservative number?

    It will get to $5.00, just how long it takes.....my timeframe is middle of 2015. However I am more inclined to see a buyout or RMT, which changes everything.

    Redbird
    Jun 9, 2014. 08:20 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google's Satellites Pose Threat To Sirius XM [View article]
    The only thing I got out of all the chatter is this.....

    SIRI has functional satellites RIGHT NOW and how much are they worth as it relates to SIRI sp?

    Rethinking the whole picture now and wondering "When will they be bought for this asset alone?"

    If a company like Goog or APPL or MSFT are thinking about spending Billions on getting something flying right now, it will be 5 years as all you are saying. 5 years of FCF, put the value of the Satellites, plus content?

    Some company is licking their chops I bet.....hey wait a minute....I did bet on SIRI when it was $0.14 sp.....

    FCF....increasing Subs....increasing revenues.....connected car.....very, very interesting from here.

    Red
    Jun 4, 2014. 09:01 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SiriCoin: Should Sirius Create Its Own Alternative Currency? [View instapost]
    So, at a price of less than $17.00 for SIRI how would you pay with a bitcoin? Fractional percents?

    Just not sure how this would work?

    If they create their own it would need to be a lot lower than $600 as the currency (Bitcoin)

    Red
    Jun 2, 2014. 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sirius XM A Buy Right Now With Or Without The Issuance Of A Dividend? [View article]
    Dividend will be to Siruis HoldCo and Sirius and not to shareholders.....better research next time please
    May 8, 2014. 11:06 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: When Does This 'Thing' Get Out Of The Mud? [View article]
    Been a wild and crazy 6 weeks. Bought a house, bought a new car...(with SIRIUS installed of course), 10 day vacation to Florida, moved 90 miles and solid traveling for work when I returned. Never got a chance to analyze whether selling SIRI was smart for me, so I didn't other than a small position in a non-qualified account.

    Sticking with SIRI as I agree with Stephen and think all this is a daily grind to see who is at the number to sell or buy. Very simple.

    With the chatter of Charter trying to get back into Time Warner it has thrown the spotlight away SIRI concerning LMCA. Although JM might be back for round two, I am still expecting him to do the RMT now that he has gone the direction of splitting up LMCA.

    M2C - Redbird
    Apr 3, 2014. 07:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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