Sean Weston's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/920293/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/807241/comments?source=feed#comment-8681121 8681121 Thu, 23 Aug 2012 00:59:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/714141/comments?source=feed#comment-7293241 7293241
For the second paragraph, it has been a real high interest rate(relative to its peers) country. Even if Japan's real 5 year rate was hovering around .5, .7 or so, the U.S. in comparison has actually been negative. It becomes a magnet for risk-averse people.

What makes me think the spotlight won't swing due east any moment is that many Euro countries are significantly worse off, and the bond market is very clear in telling us it isn't worried about Japan, or sees trouble in its immediate future. During the last few years Japan has had the lowest interest rate being paid by any advanced economy.

If people thought there was an imminent collapse in the yen, deflationary expectations would not exist.]]> Wed, 11 Jul 2012 17:32:13 -0400
For the second paragraph, it has been a real high interest rate(relative to its peers) country. Even if Japan's real 5 year rate was hovering around .5, .7 or so, the U.S. in comparison has actually been negative. It becomes a magnet for risk-averse people.

What makes me think the spotlight won't swing due east any moment is that many Euro countries are significantly worse off, and the bond market is very clear in telling us it isn't worried about Japan, or sees trouble in its immediate future. During the last few years Japan has had the lowest interest rate being paid by any advanced economy.

If people thought there was an imminent collapse in the yen, deflationary expectations would not exist.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/714141/comments?source=feed#comment-7284241 7284241
The one caveat, like I said, is serious inflation when taken to the extreme, which in essence would be a de facto way to default on obligations. But Japan has been gyrating into deflation for numerous years now, and at the present moment the market is not anticipating anywhere near substantial inflation for their future.

Especially short-term, with people parking their money their in times of increased global turmoil, it is a safe-haven, relative to the conditions around it. ]]> Wed, 11 Jul 2012 13:57:47 -0400
The one caveat, like I said, is serious inflation when taken to the extreme, which in essence would be a de facto way to default on obligations. But Japan has been gyrating into deflation for numerous years now, and at the present moment the market is not anticipating anywhere near substantial inflation for their future.

Especially short-term, with people parking their money their in times of increased global turmoil, it is a safe-haven, relative to the conditions around it. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/690931/comments?source=feed#comment-6941461 6941461
The price of it going up for 10 years gives it no more merit than it did tech stocks going up or real estate going up. When he states that "The rising price has on its own generated additional buying enthusiasm, attracting purchasers who see the rise as validating an investment thesis. As "bandwagon" investors join any party, they create their own truth-for a while." .........."but look at how much the price has gone up" is not a refutation. ]]> Fri, 29 Jun 2012 21:20:58 -0400
The price of it going up for 10 years gives it no more merit than it did tech stocks going up or real estate going up. When he states that "The rising price has on its own generated additional buying enthusiasm, attracting purchasers who see the rise as validating an investment thesis. As "bandwagon" investors join any party, they create their own truth-for a while." .........."but look at how much the price has gone up" is not a refutation. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/690931/comments?source=feed#comment-6924321 6924321
As it is, i think you're confused, we're actually in late June, so ten years goes back to June of 2002...not May. That 15% drop in the ensuing month made what I put an even more advantageous number for KGC in the last ten years. It wasn't the high of the year, by far.If I was out simply to come up with the worst portrayal of its stock return that I could, I could have mentioned how from its highs in Feb of 1996, KGC is down over 70%. Not too good for over 15 years.

GG, btw is up 276%, and NEM is up 68% over the last ten years, not what you wrote. Gold is up over 500%, which was my point. It hasn't translated into the same success for the mining companies. ]]> Fri, 29 Jun 2012 12:50:23 -0400
As it is, i think you're confused, we're actually in late June, so ten years goes back to June of 2002...not May. That 15% drop in the ensuing month made what I put an even more advantageous number for KGC in the last ten years. It wasn't the high of the year, by far.If I was out simply to come up with the worst portrayal of its stock return that I could, I could have mentioned how from its highs in Feb of 1996, KGC is down over 70%. Not too good for over 15 years.

GG, btw is up 276%, and NEM is up 68% over the last ten years, not what you wrote. Gold is up over 500%, which was my point. It hasn't translated into the same success for the mining companies. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/690931/comments?source=feed#comment-6923671 6923671 Fri, 29 Jun 2012 12:35:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/690931/comments?source=feed#comment-6923361 6923361
He has been speaking negatively about precious metals since long before its recent rise though. "It gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."-that is from the 90's.

He also talks about gold's inadequacies as far back that I've read as his 1977 shareholder letter. His mentor Graham was also not a big fan, and neither is Munger. "Civilized people don't buy gold" is something he is quoted as saying about it.]]> Fri, 29 Jun 2012 12:26:03 -0400
He has been speaking negatively about precious metals since long before its recent rise though. "It gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."-that is from the 90's.

He also talks about gold's inadequacies as far back that I've read as his 1977 shareholder letter. His mentor Graham was also not a big fan, and neither is Munger. "Civilized people don't buy gold" is something he is quoted as saying about it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/690931/comments?source=feed#comment-6922601 6922601 Fri, 29 Jun 2012 12:07:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/690931/comments?source=feed#comment-6898321 6898321
I'm not one who puts weight behind a correlation between gold prices and inflation. Like I mentioned in the article, there was plenty of inflation from 1980 to 2001 and gold lost an enormous 4/5ths of its value. Over the very long run it does have a positive real return, barely...which is including its exponential growth over the last decade.

Some of the stances on why it could go higher still are pretty logical viewpoints, and people whose investing prowess I have a lot of respect for, like Einhorn, have some fairly big exposure to gold and/or gold mining companies at this point, but it appears far too speculative to me. If that 3,000 number pans out, that is a pretty dire looking future also.

Thanks for the book recommendation.]]> Thu, 28 Jun 2012 17:38:06 -0400
I'm not one who puts weight behind a correlation between gold prices and inflation. Like I mentioned in the article, there was plenty of inflation from 1980 to 2001 and gold lost an enormous 4/5ths of its value. Over the very long run it does have a positive real return, barely...which is including its exponential growth over the last decade.

Some of the stances on why it could go higher still are pretty logical viewpoints, and people whose investing prowess I have a lot of respect for, like Einhorn, have some fairly big exposure to gold and/or gold mining companies at this point, but it appears far too speculative to me. If that 3,000 number pans out, that is a pretty dire looking future also.

Thanks for the book recommendation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/686781/comments?source=feed#comment-6890121 6890121 It covers from 1940 until 2011...all the years. Having a problem with 1940 and saying "try 1953" doesn't make sense. ]]> Thu, 28 Jun 2012 13:54:12 -0400 It covers from 1940 until 2011...all the years. Having a problem with 1940 and saying "try 1953" doesn't make sense. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/685461/comments?source=feed#comment-6829181 6829181 Tue, 26 Jun 2012 22:42:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/677791/comments?source=feed#comment-6825411 6825411 http://bloom.bg/LNCTPO

Here is a Barron's article, a bit older from 2010, but they also put that division at 2 billion in the case of it being a stand alone company. http://on.barrons.com/...]]> Tue, 26 Jun 2012 19:46:16 -0400 http://bloom.bg/LNCTPO

Here is a Barron's article, a bit older from 2010, but they also put that division at 2 billion in the case of it being a stand alone company. http://on.barrons.com/...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/677791/comments?source=feed#comment-6783111 6783111 Mon, 25 Jun 2012 17:57:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/657521/comments?source=feed#comment-6400661 6400661
Japanese authorities have been and will be looking to prevent further appreciation of the Yen, but with their deflation deeply embedded in future expectations, and attracting the capital that it does, it will be an uphill battle. They don't want to see it to appreciate must pass 80, but to have it fall all the way back to 350/dollar, where it was back in the 1960's, seems highly unlikely in this environment.]]> Wed, 13 Jun 2012 19:39:15 -0400
Japanese authorities have been and will be looking to prevent further appreciation of the Yen, but with their deflation deeply embedded in future expectations, and attracting the capital that it does, it will be an uphill battle. They don't want to see it to appreciate must pass 80, but to have it fall all the way back to 350/dollar, where it was back in the 1960's, seems highly unlikely in this environment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/617951/comments?source=feed#comment-6208091 6208091 Thu, 07 Jun 2012 14:51:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/641021/comments?source=feed#comment-6170921 6170921 Wed, 06 Jun 2012 15:17:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/385341/comments?source=feed#comment-5202371 5202371 Mon, 07 May 2012 23:36:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/920293-sean-weston/173922-big-down-day-for-silver?source=feed#comment-1626081 1626081
I am getting this from the large increase seen in volume with leveraged and also inverse ETFs, which are typically very speculative with a high amount of intraday traders.

For a clue that the smart money is not following, even with the torrid pace of activity, the number of shares outstanding with SLV has increased only marginally. ]]> Mon, 02 May 2011 16:55:59 -0400
I am getting this from the large increase seen in volume with leveraged and also inverse ETFs, which are typically very speculative with a high amount of intraday traders.

For a clue that the smart money is not following, even with the torrid pace of activity, the number of shares outstanding with SLV has increased only marginally. ]]>