sistah43

The Tellurium Supernova Has Erupted

I have written to plenty of companies as an investor and gotten responses from IR. If FSLR is not responding, that is cause for concern.

First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up

In a severe recession most everything will get hit regardless of energy prices. It is the nature of stocks--there are very few recession proof stocks (look at the sin stock now).

I don't know much about FSLR's business, but everything I've read indicates they are in a good position wrt industry+technology. I used to try to look at fundamentals of stock I traded, but switched to TA as so often the fundamentals (and the interrelationship of fundamental factors) are ignored wrt stock evaluation.

I like candlestick charts and I post one final observation. If the candle on the weekly looks like the candle that printed the week of 12/24/07, that portends some pain for longs that could be avoided by hedging here. That drop was $140 (from 283-143). This drop can easily be to $200 and still not violate any long-term uptrend in the chart (nor do I expect it to).

I think we agree on FSLR's long term positioning, we just have different opinions on how well it will hold up in the market that's downtrending strongly.

Traders must love this stock tho.

S

First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up

sorry...correction above...meant if we break 11700 on dow...

First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up

I'm not disputing your long-term argument, but here are two pts. to consider:
1). We are arguably in a bear mkt (or at least fighting one off) and if we do break 12700, we're looking at a big swing down. Nothing, not FSLR, the 4 horsemen, are going to be unaffected. In FSLR's case, simply b/c the stock has been a meteor and shorts are in short supply, you can look at a case of piling on which will take it down fast.

2). If you assume that Dec. '07 was the first wave up and this second wave up is now in progress, your analysis could be correct, but if you assume that we are now at the end of a macro 1st wave up (and this is quite reasonable since FSLR is a young stock), I would expect FSLR to hit it's 200 day EMA (currently around 180) before it hits $350.

Regardless, it's printing a nice doji today (if the current action keeps up) and if you look at that in conjunction with declining volume on the daily chart, I wouldn't be buying at this juncture but waiting to see how well it holds up above 300 for a couple of weeks. This doesn't obviate your long-term argument (and 2012 is a nice time frame), but there are some junctures where tweaking your strategy (making long-term purchases on increased margin power) can yield you better gains and less heartache and I believe we are at one of those junctures: Just sit this one out a month or two--if you are right and your margin power continues to increase, you can add without the risk of this market want to continue a mean bear market leg down. Good luck.