Leonard the Monkey's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/92382/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/132175/comments?source=feed#comment-496275 496275
Busting through 16.50 and into the 17's clears the way for some further upside.

Spectacular trade!


]]> Fri, 08 May 2009 22:15:53 -0400
Busting through 16.50 and into the 17's clears the way for some further upside.

Spectacular trade!


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132175/comments?source=feed#comment-480865 480865
He was a very underrated genius.

Also this pairs trade is now up about 12% in the first week including the VNR distribution.

Not a bad idea to take some profits.


]]> Tue, 28 Apr 2009 11:07:26 -0400
He was a very underrated genius.

Also this pairs trade is now up about 12% in the first week including the VNR distribution.

Not a bad idea to take some profits.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132175/comments?source=feed#comment-476097 476097
On top of that VNR downgraded today by Wachovia.

:)



]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 13:42:57 -0400
On top of that VNR downgraded today by Wachovia.

:)



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130996/comments?source=feed#comment-472054 472054
Those of you investing in it, I wish you the very best and I do truly hope that it exceeds everyone's expectations for the sake of those who need the medicine.

]]> Tue, 21 Apr 2009 23:41:34 -0400
Those of you investing in it, I wish you the very best and I do truly hope that it exceeds everyone's expectations for the sake of those who need the medicine.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130996/comments?source=feed#comment-465016 465016
You should apparently look it up.

Harmful effects discovered by Phase IV trials may result in a drug being no longer sold, or restricted to certain uses: recent examples involve cerivastatin (brand names Baycol and Lipobay), troglitazone (Rezulin) and rofecoxib (Vioxx).]]> Thu, 16 Apr 2009 10:17:55 -0400
You should apparently look it up.

Harmful effects discovered by Phase IV trials may result in a drug being no longer sold, or restricted to certain uses: recent examples involve cerivastatin (brand names Baycol and Lipobay), troglitazone (Rezulin) and rofecoxib (Vioxx).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130871/comments?source=feed#comment-464048 464048
Look at how much money they made on their lower priced brands... it was a negative number.

People will still smoke and chew - but less people will do it, people will do less of it, people will trade down to cheaper brands, more people will turn to the untaxed black market for tobacco.

MO had one hell of run, now it is slowly dying.

I'm a very light smoker.

If MO can get back to $20 I think it would be a great short.

]]> Wed, 15 Apr 2009 15:53:06 -0400
Look at how much money they made on their lower priced brands... it was a negative number.

People will still smoke and chew - but less people will do it, people will do less of it, people will trade down to cheaper brands, more people will turn to the untaxed black market for tobacco.

MO had one hell of run, now it is slowly dying.

I'm a very light smoker.

If MO can get back to $20 I think it would be a great short.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130595/comments?source=feed#comment-461342 461342
Doesn't matter if the ban it or not, people will get it. A lot of blackmarket activty ramping up in the face of these price hikes.]]> Mon, 13 Apr 2009 09:03:04 -0400
Doesn't matter if the ban it or not, people will get it. A lot of blackmarket activty ramping up in the face of these price hikes.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130321/comments?source=feed#comment-458733 458733
However, Pickens plan is predicated on the assumption that it will take at least a decade before electric vehicles can have any impact.

Looking at BYD in China, the expanding fleet of UPS/Fed Ex and other transportation companies electric vans, the increasing number of electric cars in my community, ect... - I think his assumptions are incorrect.

It would take a significant amount of time to get enough people to adopt nat. gas vehicles - why not just skip nat. gas and go straight to electric?

The technology is closer then you think.
]]> Fri, 10 Apr 2009 09:39:50 -0400
However, Pickens plan is predicated on the assumption that it will take at least a decade before electric vehicles can have any impact.

Looking at BYD in China, the expanding fleet of UPS/Fed Ex and other transportation companies electric vans, the increasing number of electric cars in my community, ect... - I think his assumptions are incorrect.

It would take a significant amount of time to get enough people to adopt nat. gas vehicles - why not just skip nat. gas and go straight to electric?

The technology is closer then you think.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127103/comments?source=feed#comment-435797 435797
When it goes back down to $2 do you think they will do another reserve split?

Being that it's such a great idea and all.
]]> Sun, 22 Mar 2009 17:26:38 -0400
When it goes back down to $2 do you think they will do another reserve split?

Being that it's such a great idea and all.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122019/comments?source=feed#comment-425048 425048
If you had actually read the article you would see I focused on the FNM and FRE issue.

Good day.

BTW: Yields have contracted as these securities are increasingly viewed as being safe.

]]> Fri, 13 Mar 2009 17:00:04 -0400
If you had actually read the article you would see I focused on the FNM and FRE issue.

Good day.

BTW: Yields have contracted as these securities are increasingly viewed as being safe.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125843/comments?source=feed#comment-424211 424211
3% a year for 30 years...

No wonder they would rather buy commodities.

Commodities don't default on you.



]]> Fri, 13 Mar 2009 08:52:12 -0400
3% a year for 30 years...

No wonder they would rather buy commodities.

Commodities don't default on you.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123577/comments?source=feed#comment-410810 410810
The way it has been working that I have seen is that the front month is getting pushed down before "the roll" and the next month prices are being pushed up artificially.

Once the rollover takes places the price quickly starts to come back down towards the current months price thus narrowing the contango.

This is hurting USO.

Full Disclosure: I am short USO

]]> Tue, 03 Mar 2009 08:51:49 -0500
The way it has been working that I have seen is that the front month is getting pushed down before "the roll" and the next month prices are being pushed up artificially.

Once the rollover takes places the price quickly starts to come back down towards the current months price thus narrowing the contango.

This is hurting USO.

Full Disclosure: I am short USO

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122019/comments?source=feed#comment-402208 402208
I need a bailout - REM is my fav ETF right now!

tc1 - I'm not claiming to be the expert on AGNC but I believe it had to do with their spread being lower then the avg. and the use of options to make up a chunk of the earnings last qtr., if I remember correctly.



]]> Tue, 24 Feb 2009 20:00:00 -0500
I need a bailout - REM is my fav ETF right now!

tc1 - I'm not claiming to be the expert on AGNC but I believe it had to do with their spread being lower then the avg. and the use of options to make up a chunk of the earnings last qtr., if I remember correctly.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120900/comments?source=feed#comment-393772 393772
As such I have been buying.
]]> Wed, 18 Feb 2009 13:25:17 -0500
As such I have been buying.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116673/comments?source=feed#comment-369334 369334
Wow what a great investment --- where do I sign up?]]> Wed, 28 Jan 2009 20:59:11 -0500
Wow what a great investment --- where do I sign up?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116256/comments?source=feed#comment-366018 366018
That is taking into consideration their top notch balance sheet.

Estimates are for a 40% decrease in earnings this year to 5.51

Given a 10 pe and $6 in cash = $61

They will also have billions in write downs on projects such as the oil sands, the Chavez seizure and other investments in projects that are no longer feasible.


]]> Sun, 25 Jan 2009 20:39:48 -0500
That is taking into consideration their top notch balance sheet.

Estimates are for a 40% decrease in earnings this year to 5.51

Given a 10 pe and $6 in cash = $61

They will also have billions in write downs on projects such as the oil sands, the Chavez seizure and other investments in projects that are no longer feasible.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115035/comments?source=feed#comment-358536 358536
This should give them enough time to ride out the storm and eat up other banks businesses along the way as JPM will be considered the strongest bank in the country.

Also by far most of the mortgage losses still stem from CA and FL and the worst area's there have begun stabilizing.

Disclosure: I did short JPM at $35 but I am now long. ]]> Sat, 17 Jan 2009 14:16:38 -0500
This should give them enough time to ride out the storm and eat up other banks businesses along the way as JPM will be considered the strongest bank in the country.

Also by far most of the mortgage losses still stem from CA and FL and the worst area's there have begun stabilizing.

Disclosure: I did short JPM at $35 but I am now long. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114241/comments?source=feed#comment-352915 352915
I wish the real view showcased all of these things. It bothers me that most people don't see or understand these other labor reports that are not widely disseminated.

Not that I'm all about spreading doom and gloom and all that, just want to really understand the situation as best possible.

Leonard
]]> Sun, 11 Jan 2009 23:53:01 -0500
I wish the real view showcased all of these things. It bothers me that most people don't see or understand these other labor reports that are not widely disseminated.

Not that I'm all about spreading doom and gloom and all that, just want to really understand the situation as best possible.

Leonard
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106313/comments?source=feed#comment-310402 310402
I prefer investing in only things that make no sense what so ever or are much more "ifffy"
]]> Wed, 19 Nov 2008 20:18:36 -0500
I prefer investing in only things that make no sense what so ever or are much more "ifffy"
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94188/comments?source=feed#comment-247115 247115
Since when did everyone stop believing in US Socialism?

Spoken by a lotto ticket holder.
]]> Sat, 06 Sep 2008 17:31:06 -0400
Since when did everyone stop believing in US Socialism?

Spoken by a lotto ticket holder.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92337/comments?source=feed#comment-238431 238431
I have no complaints about my local RSH's but I don't see how they can fend off the competition with their current operations.
]]> Mon, 25 Aug 2008 10:52:04 -0400
I have no complaints about my local RSH's but I don't see how they can fend off the competition with their current operations.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82230/comments?source=feed#comment-195536 195536
People who pump up stocks for good reasons as well as those who put down companies for good reasons are performing an important service.

It's the lazy, less intelligent people who have poorly researched analysis that investors should criticize.

I have found David's work to be well thought out.
]]> Sun, 29 Jun 2008 21:06:39 -0400
People who pump up stocks for good reasons as well as those who put down companies for good reasons are performing an important service.

It's the lazy, less intelligent people who have poorly researched analysis that investors should criticize.

I have found David's work to be well thought out.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80760/comments?source=feed#comment-182887 182887
Looks like we all agree on this one! Unless oil falls off a cliff and stays there I think the dips have to be bought.

]]> Tue, 10 Jun 2008 19:02:18 -0400
Looks like we all agree on this one! Unless oil falls off a cliff and stays there I think the dips have to be bought.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80514/comments?source=feed#comment-181328 181328
The world needs to permanently change it's habits of wasting huge amounts of oil to a more conservative stance lowering world demand, aided by alternative fuel sources to a level where supply and demand meet. Currently we are in balance but the perception that we won't be in a couple years is the driving force behind this oil rally. Eventually I fully believe we will be in balance but the million dollar question is will it happen soon enough to avoid a supply demand imbalance that sends oil to $200+.

I can't believe were still not drilling more on land and offshore, alternatives need more time to catch up and it will take a couple of years before we see a drop of oil from many of the best prospects we have. Why are we waiting? Maybe we want to force everyone into an electric car in 2010 first. ]]> Sun, 08 Jun 2008 12:46:13 -0400
The world needs to permanently change it's habits of wasting huge amounts of oil to a more conservative stance lowering world demand, aided by alternative fuel sources to a level where supply and demand meet. Currently we are in balance but the perception that we won't be in a couple years is the driving force behind this oil rally. Eventually I fully believe we will be in balance but the million dollar question is will it happen soon enough to avoid a supply demand imbalance that sends oil to $200+.

I can't believe were still not drilling more on land and offshore, alternatives need more time to catch up and it will take a couple of years before we see a drop of oil from many of the best prospects we have. Why are we waiting? Maybe we want to force everyone into an electric car in 2010 first. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78079/comments?source=feed#comment-170818 170818
Oh wait, after the announced partnership with GOOG, MSFT will go away.

Chatrooms saved! ... but supported by GOOG ads.
]]> Tue, 20 May 2008 21:48:59 -0400
Oh wait, after the announced partnership with GOOG, MSFT will go away.

Chatrooms saved! ... but supported by GOOG ads.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77594/comments?source=feed#comment-169370 169370
The upside in YHOO is capped at $33 and MSFT would be fools to pay that now with the position they are in. Did you see how the board reacted to MSFT's dropped bid? It wasn't just them either the employees were the same way. The cultures of these two companies won't mix. Just ask some of the Yahoos.

Icahn and the rest of them are making a killing and a lot of publicity for themselves while they get even richer as once they are finished pumping they dump their shares into the hype they created.

The risk/reward is very in favor of shorting the shares at the current price near $28. I see 3 up and 8 down.

In full disclosure I have started a short position in YHOO and will be adding to it over $28 if it makes it there.

]]> Sat, 17 May 2008 14:11:13 -0400
The upside in YHOO is capped at $33 and MSFT would be fools to pay that now with the position they are in. Did you see how the board reacted to MSFT's dropped bid? It wasn't just them either the employees were the same way. The cultures of these two companies won't mix. Just ask some of the Yahoos.

Icahn and the rest of them are making a killing and a lot of publicity for themselves while they get even richer as once they are finished pumping they dump their shares into the hype they created.

The risk/reward is very in favor of shorting the shares at the current price near $28. I see 3 up and 8 down.

In full disclosure I have started a short position in YHOO and will be adding to it over $28 if it makes it there.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76101/comments?source=feed#comment-163850 163850
These guys do good work and if you look at how much it costs the government to do it own their own DCP offers a discount. There use will continue to increase as they are very well run. Any company with 14,000 employees in highly dangerous places will have some problems here or there. They do better then most.]]> Wed, 07 May 2008 23:29:26 -0400
These guys do good work and if you look at how much it costs the government to do it own their own DCP offers a discount. There use will continue to increase as they are very well run. Any company with 14,000 employees in highly dangerous places will have some problems here or there. They do better then most.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/40439/comments?source=feed#comment-90749 90749
The continuing revenue from Sony as a result of the litigation was incorrectly stated as being 1.875M per qtr for 3 years and .750M per qtr for 10 years.

It is actually 1.875M per qtr for 3 years that will be recognized as .750M per qtr for 10 years. They will record a total of 29.9M as revenue and 2.3M as interest income.]]> Mon, 09 Jul 2007 21:05:12 -0400
The continuing revenue from Sony as a result of the litigation was incorrectly stated as being 1.875M per qtr for 3 years and .750M per qtr for 10 years.

It is actually 1.875M per qtr for 3 years that will be recognized as .750M per qtr for 10 years. They will record a total of 29.9M as revenue and 2.3M as interest income.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/40150/comments?source=feed#comment-90522 90522
The eps growth rates I used were analyst estimates on average over the next 5 years not including the cost saving synergies as they are not factored into the current eps numbers. You make a good point that with the synergies factored in the EPS growth is very impressive. However if you believe as some analysts do that they will not be able to continue growing their bottom line by more then 18% then the stock range is about 50 to 75 with the synergies factored in for this year.

What makes this story so interesting is that there is so much uncertainty surrounding how NYX will continue to maintain a high growth rate going forward. There are also questions about how long it will take for the cost saving synergies to really take hold.

I don't think your doing anything wrong. If you believe in the story and the successful expansion of NYX then the stock is undervalued.]]> Fri, 06 Jul 2007 08:25:05 -0400
The eps growth rates I used were analyst estimates on average over the next 5 years not including the cost saving synergies as they are not factored into the current eps numbers. You make a good point that with the synergies factored in the EPS growth is very impressive. However if you believe as some analysts do that they will not be able to continue growing their bottom line by more then 18% then the stock range is about 50 to 75 with the synergies factored in for this year.

What makes this story so interesting is that there is so much uncertainty surrounding how NYX will continue to maintain a high growth rate going forward. There are also questions about how long it will take for the cost saving synergies to really take hold.

I don't think your doing anything wrong. If you believe in the story and the successful expansion of NYX then the stock is undervalued.]]>