sophocles

Don't Believe Long-Term Oil Forecasts

www.guardian.co.uk/env...

How $30/Barrel Oil Could Save the World

I agree with you on most points but it won't be a great thing for oil to stabilize at 30, it will kill our oil industry and alternative energy. Supply will fall off the cliff all over the world, oil will spike whenever there is any sign of economic recovery and choke it off immediately.

How $30/Barrel Oil Could Save the World

seekingalpha.com/artic...

This one is much better

How $30/Barrel Oil Could Save the World

With a price that is lower than the MC of our own oil producers, we will be left with ignorant rants against the likes of Saudi and Iran (Iranian, Indian and Russian support for the Northern Alliance helped topple the Taliban). Iran does not want taliban in power in Afghanistan or Pakistan.

How $30/Barrel Oil Could Save the World

If and when demand comes back, you cannot just flip the switch and get it going. This guy is like people who think electricity comes out of your wall and food is grown in supermarkets. You have a depleting asset which is crucial for the survival and growth of civilization, you pay today or you pay tomorrow. Killing off domestic oil producers (low prices, high taxes) will only increase our dependence on foreign oil.

How $30/Barrel Oil Could Save the World

Let's forget the Saudis and the Iranians for a moment; even they don't have unlimited supply at any price. What does $30 oil do to our independent oil producers in the USA? Mexican Cantarrel is in severe decline, Mexico will cease to be an exporter soon. How many oilfields can you name to replace depeleting oilfields? There was a lot of fanfare about the Brazilian Tupi, which is not viable with oil under $60. Canadian oil sands are no go too.

How $30/Barrel Oil Could Save the World

BB, why make it complicated by bringing up the fact that there would be very little supply at $30? But that is in the future, we live by the day. Oil goes to $30, we run our printing presses 24/7, we are rescued, problems with our unfunded wars, unfunded medicare/social securtity, trillions of dollars of deficits, zombie banks, foreclosed McMansions, bankrupt auto companies, double-digit unemployment are melted away. We go back to the days of big houses and cars and free-wheeling spending with our credit cards. Who says you cannot have it all and there is no free lunch?

How $30/Barrel Oil Could Save the World

The deflation we have bought on ourselves because of credit-driven spending above our means will starve our funds and will lower demand for oil and other things as we spiral down. But we have our printing presses to rescue us.

How $30/Barrel Oil Could Save the World

Like Dr.C, I also feel 'manipulating' oil price down to $30 by bureaucrats and politicians will only lead to spikes in the future as investment falls off the cliff. OPEC lowered its demand projection until 2013 because of recessions (I don't know recessions will last that long) and biofuels (dubious). What did they do in response to this? They cut oilfield investment by a third. US domestic production is falling even at today's prices. At $30 it will fall hard, Canadian oilsands won't come online. Cutting our nose to spite Iran sounds like a brilliant idea though. Why don't we just commit mass suicide so that there is no consumer of oil and OPEC is toast? It seems like you can publish anything here and seem like an expert.

$300/Barrel Oil Is Coming - Barron's Interview

buyitcheap: WLL, EOG, BEXP. CLR are some names with presence in Bakken

XTO Energy Just Picked a Bad Day To Announce Earnings

I was perplexed by the market reaction even though oil and NG were down. XTO announced a 26m share offering yesterday. Big boys may have known about this, so they could easily short and then cover from secondary offering later.

Symantec Named in “Most Dangerous Stocks” List

Would you mind naming some other dangerous stocks for June and beyond?

Thanks.

Chicken Little...er...Morgan Stanley is Worried about Fertilizer

A poster on VT.TO board noticed the irony that MS thinks demand for fertilizer is falling but another one says

Monsanto won't remain this cheap for long.

TraderMark, please send a mail to [e-mail]

Chicken Little...er...Morgan Stanley is Worried about Fertilizer

We made the same argument on the investorvillage VT.TO board. Potash price was rising by $50/t in January, so it would not make POT unhappy if there is a shipment delay in December so that they can ship more in January at a higher price. Vale canclled some iron ore shipping to China driving the spot price up and putting a squeeze on China in the iron ore contract negotiation. POT and MOS could do the same to China. I think potash contract will settle earlier than the iron ore contract.

Chicken Little...er...Morgan Stanley is Worried about Fertilizer

The fertilizer Institute put those inventory nimbers. we discussed it on the investorvillage VT.TO message board. You could see the same inventory numbers on POT website. You can see there is an inventory increase from Nov to Dec but inventory is lower than the 5-year average even after all those production raises by POT, MOS, AGU, etc. POT is opening a new mine in Brunswick and commissioned another one in Saskatchewan. BHP is doing a feasibility study in Saskatchewan. If there is no demand, why so much activity? I think the increase in inventory was NOT demand related. The Cornbelt potash price has increased $100/st in the last 4 weeks.


POT: Potash: Seasonality, rail delays behind potash restocking; buy on pullback- BofA

BofA says an there was an overreaction to inventory data. They see the recent pullback in fertilizer stocks (down 14-22% since 1/15 vs. 3.5% for S&P index) as an opportunity to add to positions in Buy-rated PotashCorp (POT) and Mosaic (MOS) ahead of what is likely to be a break-out year for potash. The firm suspects investors are overreacting to Dec producer inventory data, which showed a sequential increase to 1.8 mln short tons, but down 21% y-y. They think producers needed to replenish Dec stocks ahead of U.S spring planting, thus pushing the normal October/November restocking period out by one month. Potash shipments declined last month, adding to inventories, but railcar delays at C.P Rail rather than a lull in customer orders may be to blame.