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ALPHA-BITS

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  • 2 Things To Do And Not To Do When Your Investment Thesis Proves Wrong [View article]
    My neighbor came over and told me he had a great run and made a ton of money last night playing black jack at the casino. I did not regret missing out on joining him at the casino. I don't regret having been in cash for the last few months. Opportunity lost? Yes. But, I still see these days as a long term times of capital preservation. I've lost nothing and gained a small amount. The game is still on and I still have my seat at the table. Some may call me a fool. But those would be the same folks that will someday just disappear from commenting. Maybe because they lost their seat at the table rather abruptly.
    Aug 21 04:47 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ultra-Low Interest Rates Indicate U.S. Stocks Are Expensive [View article]
    James:

    I went to your web site, logged in, and still could not get access to any articles. Even being logged in, it askes for a password to access articles, I put in my password, and it just asks again for the password.
    Aug 19 02:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Economy In Q1: Slow, Steady And Vulnerable [View article]
    Thanks for still another excellent article. The bashers will disappear when 'the event' happens quickly. I read the following excellent blog on the vulnerability ETF's bring to the market. Here is the blog: http://bit.ly/KcU52B. I would appreciate any of the experts who know so much more then I who follow your writings view on this. I believe that when this proped up market begins to fall, it will be fast and furious.
    May 6 03:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Italy And Spain Launch Frontal Assault On German Austerity [View article]
    Thank you again James for your excellent analysis. You are always a first read upon publication of a new article.

    This is a most interesting week to come for the markets. The technicians are talking about being at a tipping point. What surprised me the most today though, was Lee Adler's Wall Street Examiner. Lee's usually quite bearish, but he stated that his analysis of liquidity in the US has turned his charts bullish. He states, "In this liquidity based model of the market, there is no way the markets can decline as long as this continues. It forces us to assume that the bias will remain to the upside." Lee states that a lot of this liquidity is probably from Europe.

    I respect Mr. Adler's analysis as I do yours. His bullish stance has me scratching my head. Can the analysis that Europe and the Euro's demise actually be bullish for US equities rather then belief that contagion drags the US down with them? What happens in Europe is getting pretty well defined. But could we have it 180 degrees wrong on what it's effect on US equities will be?

    I would be greatly appreciative of your views on this. May we forever live in interesting times.
    Jan 24 11:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain Announces Beginning Of End: The Unfolding Global Fiasco Is Near [View article]
    A lost 'opportunity' is much preferred to a loss of capitol. Patience. Go into the game when the odds are heavily in your favor. Stay out of the game when you are unsure.
    Jan 21 02:34 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Gold Dropping? [View article]
    Does anyone know a chart that covers gold shorts and/or gold shorting by hedge funds?
    Jan 2 10:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • James Kostohryz Positions For 2012: 100% Cash The Only Way To Play This Market [View article]
    Keep writing James. There are a lot of us out here who see it exacting as you are describing it. Buy and hold is dead. In and out in short duration. Right now...strictly cash. A lost short term opportunity is much preferred to a loss of capital. Big money is made coming out of a crisis.
    Dec 21 02:42 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Tebow, Social Mood And The Future Of U.S. Stocks [View article]
    James, thanks again for this and all the past excellence. I learn so much from you that you are a first read every evening you post. I do not agree that Tim Tebow is the force in America for the change that Americans always find in the darkest hour. I believe that person is the man who the headlines today state has taken the lead in the presidential polls in Iowa and New Hampshire for the honor to run against Obama in November. The new frontrunner is a man who has been ignored and ridiculed at every step by the main media for decades. He is both the candidate of OWS and the Tea Party. He is the man of the extreme right and the extreme left. He will soon also be the leader of the middle, also. He will be the uniter and the bearer of a new economic order. Hello Ron Paul.
    Dec 19 10:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Stock Face-Off: Vodaphone Vs. Telefonica [View article]
    Previous article on TEF stated "TEF’s union contracts in place require them to pay an average severance package of 415,000 Euros ( $563,000) to every one of the 6,500 Spanish employees they laid off this year. "

    Is this true? If so, how does it affect TEF's longer term viability?
    Nov 25 01:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Super Committee Failure: Is The U.S. Political System Broken? [View article]
    Remember when investing was about financials and economics? Doesn't even matter anymore. It's all politics. And politics has no logic.
    Nov 22 02:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If Things Are So Bad, Why Is The Market Going Up? [View article]
    James: Thanks for your insightful articles. They help a lot. Although I study this endlessly, I am definitely way behind you on the curve. I know enough about economics to know that what is going on with the banks and the markets is deep and treacherous. I believe that this market can turn on a dime. For me, I will sit it out until this becomes something I can understand better. Lost opportunity is better then lost fortune.
    Oct 29 08:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Banking: Wake Up Guys...Mahogany Ain't the Answer! [View article]
    If someone is that smart about investments, would they be working an 8 to 5 at a bank, or be on a beach managing their own wealth? I had a full service broker once. A waste of my time and money, So I ask myself, why is this guy here at this desk talking to me. My only answer that is there is an advantage to himself and his own wealth to be able to 'peek' at what others are doing and maybe just jump a good trade on special information. No one is there to help you in the shark pool. We are all alone out there. And that's the truth of it. Pity the widows and those who don't endlessly study how this casino works.
    Oct 29 08:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Week Of Historic Reckoning [View article]
    Careful buying the falling knife. There is no guarantee that the market will come back up in any reasonable time frame. What we find on this bottom may be a real game changer.....hyperinfla... even a loss of appetite for debt and all that would encompass.
    Oct 24 02:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Europe Kicks The Can As Far As They Can [View article]
    What is are "additional levers"? Can I get one that would increase my portfolio fivefold?
    Oct 19 02:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dialing for Dollars? Telefonica Answers The Call [View article]
    "TEF’s union contracts in place require them to pay an average severance package of 415,000 Euros ( $563,000) to every one of the 6,500 Spanish employees they laid off this year. "

    I'd call that the elephant in the room. That a $3.6 BILLION dollar elephant ! I know governments now talk in terms of TRILLIONS, but BILLIONS still impress me. Thanks for the excellent research. I was looking at TEF but will now pass.
    Oct 2 12:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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