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  • Axion Power Concentrator 393: Mar. 26, 2015 [View instapost]
    Nanu nanu shazbot

    What an undignified ending. I always thought the story would end with a buyout from a player for the IP. Difficult to see any way back from here. Not enough shares outstanding. Ironically it was this board that insisted the number of outstanding shares be decreased. A sort of battery powered hari kari. To quote Rambo "Died in 'Nam, didn't even know it."

    Will anyone buy AXPW out of bankruptcy? Good luck to them. 10 years and 4 cubes sold.

    One more thought. I was sure that the last round of financing was designed to wipe out existing shareholders with B warrants. Wish I had followed my convictions and sold at the time. On reflection there probably wasnt a conspiracy theory. Just more poor management, poor funding raising ability and poor investors who purchased the offering. Looks like the Pipes finally got burnt.

    You are all good people. I have enjoyed my time on the board. Total loss is $8500. I image I am one of the lucky ones. Good luck with the trucks John. Might be Axion's only hope. If Axion goes under who makes your batteries?
    Mar 31, 2015. 04:15 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 386: Jan. 12, 2015 [View instapost]
    It was about 12 months ago that someone posted the link to TGs video interview. He famously said something like "the real challenge for Axion this year is trying to ramp production to keep up with orders"

    At least they succeeded in keeping up with orders.

    I have concluded that my investment is as good as wiped out now. What are we? 90% down after a 90% fall?

    So B's run the show. What happens next? I have some ideas I wanted to float. There is a cap on the number of shares that can be issues which (if I am correct) exceed the number required to fulfill all the B warrants. Now I am no genius but if I held B warrants I would convert as soon as possible and then sell them immediately. I would assume all the other B warrant holders would be doing likewise. I wouldn't want to be holding B warrants that could not be converted due to share limits. Does anyone know what happens in these situations?

    Management must be gutted that they agreed to such a dumb deal. I look back at those glory PIPE days with keen fondness. Ah, the joys of a steady predictable 5% weekly fall in share price.

    They have another 9 months of financing? Then what happens? There will be no share price. I can't see any deals signed before then. A cheap buyout? Then they will go quiet as the technology gets handed over to a larger entity. No investment opportunity, no news, a few months of speculation on the APC as we finally hear the silence.

    Anyone read "On the Beach" by Nevil Shute? Time to hand out the pills.
    Jan 23, 2015. 07:50 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 386: Jan. 12, 2015 [View instapost]
    In the table I have calculated the "Market Cap with the Bs" as the share price x all shares (old plus ALL Bs). No obviously all Bs will not be converted at the same time but they exist, have value and can be converted at any time so have value. In that sense they are "live" shares just like a regular share).

    So the Market CAP with Bs is calculated as the share price x number of old shares + number new (to be converted B shares).

    So based on this table the market cap with Bs has hardly fallen. It is just the old share holders who lose out. Thats the theory anyway.Glad to discuss it further. Just a theory.
    Jan 22, 2015. 03:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 386: Jan. 12, 2015 [View instapost]
    I posted this in november. I was told that my theory was wrong as market cap was not a good valuation for axpw. However my race to the bottom theory seems to be coming to fruition. You will from the numbers below how shareholders get exponentially killed as B warrent holders get their garanteed pound of flesh. At 10c share price shareholders are essentially wiped out. If this is the reason for shareholder massive dilution then b warrant holders will own the company.

    50% axionistas owning B warants? Not likely. A bunch of short term pipe holders who will continue to sell their conversions to bleed a little more money out of the company.

    Remember the discussions a few months ago about why management wanted to keep the 200m max cap on shares issued? Maybe a condition of investors. To paraphrase Rambo: " he died in September. Didn't even know it"
    Axion Power Concentrator 379: Nov. 5, 2014 [View instapost]
    I have obviously over estimated the importance of market cap. It is how I have always valued companies. I am sure that investors are aware of the impending dilution but are we saying that before the Bs are converted the market cap for AXPW is irrelevant? More likely and as mentioned above it is "factored in" and the 'real' market cap is the post-B market cap. I have pasted below my calculations for the market cap with dilution based on different share prices (assuming all B conversions). Even is all Bs are not converted they probably still theoretically exist.

    I noticed that no matter what the pre-B share price does (eg even a share price of 10c and pre-B Mkt Cap of $0.6m) the post-B share market cap seems to be quite stable between $9m and $15m. Essentially proving that for B warrant holders a low pre-B share price is key.

    Orig SP = Original share price before B conversion
    MrkCap w/o B is market cap before B conv
    MrkCap with Bs
    Adj SP = share price after B converison if market cap reverts to pre-B level.

    Orig SP MktCap w/o B MktCap w B Adj SP
    3 20.67 22.5 2.756
    2.75 18.9475 21.45 2.42
    2.5 17.225 20.25 2.12
    2.25 15.50 19.125 1.82
    2 13.78 18 1.53
    1.5 10.335 15.75 0.98
    1.25 8.6125 14.625 0.7361
    1 6.89 13.5 0.51
    0.9 6.201 13.05 0.427
    0.75 5.1675 12.375 0.313
    0.6 4.134 11.7 0.212
    0.45 3.1005 11.025 0.126
    0.3 2.067 10.32 0.06
    0.2 1.378 9.88 0.027
    0.1 0.689 9.42 0.00
    Jan 22, 2015. 02:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 386: Jan. 12, 2015 [View instapost]
    Maybe we should shut down the concentrator. Reasons for closing it down...

    1)No one has any shares worth anything even approaching valuable.
    2) It is essentially impossible for the B warrants to be worth anything as in its current form Axion can never have a market cap enough to divide up value divided by owners. You simply can't divide a soon to be 2M market cap by the number of B warrants and still have a decent share price.
    3) PC hopes died yesterday. NS999 is a hobby. Auto died years ago they just forgot to tell shareholders. ePower's weeks turned into months, soon to become years (sound familiar?)
    4) Most importantly we can all start the healing process.

    It is a sad day for me. Hope finally disappeared. I am not disappointed in the management. I am disappointed with myself for allowing myself to be misled.
    Jan 21, 2015. 07:26 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 386: Jan. 12, 2015 [View instapost]
    I still hold some APXW. They are actually in the "not worth selling" pile now. It seems that the selling pressure to squeeze out legacy shareholders has come to pass. I would like to see management and the board buy some shares. At these prices a small investment would lead to a significant quantity of shares being absorbed, not to mention the message it would send. I can't see it happening though.

    If I was a betting man I would guess a share price slip to 25c and then a buy out for the IP. Sad end.
    Jan 14, 2015. 07:23 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 383: Dec. 07, 2014 [View instapost]
    I hope you are right Patrick. My initial reaction was that we had been mightily screwed (again) by someone running the price down in order to pick up a huge quantity of cheap shares. But just imagine if this is a strategic investor coming on board. So long as shares are sold at or near market price the deal would be an excellent one for current investors who are holding at just over a buck. I think that would move the share price higher and B warrants might become less or unimportant.

    Why waste money on a piece of paper if you are not going to use it?

    I have not even been following AXPW. Pretty much written off my investment. Only noticed because the filing appeared in my email. Seems from the lack of interest in the board that many others have done likewise.
    Dec 16, 2014. 07:07 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 382: Nov. 22, 2014 [View instapost]
    Oil supply soaring will reduce focus on alternative energy stocks like AXPW. And it seems supply will continue soaring. Dont expect a rebound for years. Government policy will be the main drive force for green technology and even then in the short term I would expect the Eurozone to slow its green push as their economy falters again.

    The reason is shale and the fracking revolution. US oil production has more than doubled in the last 5 years back to 1980s levels. That is an extra 5 billion barrels being produced every year and rising. The US will soon become a net producer of oil (time to leave the middle east ;) Opec has decided that reducing their output will just give business to the States and elsewhere so are maintaining their levels. And we can expect much more fracking in the future. We haven't even started in the UK. End result. cheap oil. Bad for the planet. Bad for Axion. All the potential end users will be redoing their sums. I am not being facetious JP but how would $1 gallon gas effect the benefits to hauliers of conversion?

    I still pay over US$6 a gallon in the UK by the way.
    Dec 2, 2014. 07:21 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 381: Nov. 16, 2014 [View instapost]
    Stable share price for 48 hours. Highly suspicious!
    Nov 20, 2014. 10:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 381: Nov. 16, 2014 [View instapost]
    "Jeez, I'm all for pertinent discussion but this is a lot of post-mortem analysis for a company that's still alive." Exactly. It is the sort of chat I was expecting when Axion finally file for protection. Not what I was expecting at all after funding and new vision outlined by CEO. I guess so many of the long timers have capitulated now maybe it feels like BK.

    I posted, when the price started falling, that it was possible that the price would fall to a dollar. Reverse splits usually have a negative effect on stock and there doesn't seem to be any logical resistance. I guess $1 will give some resistance if we get that far. I thought we had put a bottom in a few days before the CC but apparently not. We are now testing the low that was established on the 5th/6th. Probably not much resistance there. I am sure HTL would have more to say about 1.36 being a significant support level.

    I guess either the B warrants are toxic and the price is going to be continually manipulated down or else the share price finds a base. If $1 fails dramatically then I guess it is time to face facts.
    Nov 18, 2014. 05:58 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 381: Nov. 16, 2014 [View instapost]
    Across for attention. Down for results.
    Nov 17, 2014. 07:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 380: Nov. 11, 2014 [View instapost]
    "CEO just told us on no uncertain terms that there is presently no catalyst to make 2015 any different than 2013 or 2014."

    I didn't hear that. I heard a comment from a CEO who was damning the old guard and changing direction. I also heard that there are existing relationships out there that could be lead to a strategic partner. And that is the focus of the next two quarters. I would hope a memorandum of understanding might get the stock moving.

    TG did a reasonable job. Yes, he got over excited but shouted his mouth off but I wish him well. He took AXPW in the direction he thought best and it didn't work out. But he didn't kill the company. DDG has focus. Lets see what happens.
    Nov 14, 2014. 06:04 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 380: Nov. 11, 2014 [View instapost]
    I dont see the reason for the sudden exodus. The CC and the 10Q just explained what everyone on this board has been saying for weeks. What were you expecting?

    As a new CEO the first CC is always going to be negative. It is like a prime minister making his first speech. "Loads to do, terrible situation I have inherited, going to take a super hero to sort this out".

    And hey presto, he looks like a super hero when the stock rises.

    I was encouraged by his new focus on the component aspect of PbC and maybe the "3 to 6 months" needed to focus on finding a partner will be enough. I hope the potential for partners will be a major focus of this board going forward. It seems to have not been discussed nearly as much as it should be and I for one have no idea how, where, who, or what it all means.

    If that happens how will you feel PY? Sick is my guess. Hope you stick around. If not then please remember....get your uranium rods, we going fission.
    Nov 14, 2014. 05:05 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 380: Nov. 11, 2014 [View instapost]
    "Our primary goal is to be the producer of activated total carbon electrodes, working with partner companies to produce and market the key element that contains the technology which has been developed over many years."

    I am slightly confused a) which companies they might have in mind and b) how close they are to this partnership and c) who is the partner going to sell the electrodes to?
    Nov 14, 2014. 08:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 380: Nov. 11, 2014 [View instapost]
    From the press release...

    executive change

    "CEO David DiGiacinto commented, "We will be keeping a tight rein on total expense control, on furthering essential R&D activities, and focusing on the market opportunities in energy storage for renewable energy, frequency regulation, and transportation concentrating on locomotives and heavy-duty commercial trucks. We have a high priority on selling PbC technology and products in these markets, and believe that our PbC products are especially well suited for these market opportunities. Our primary goal is to be the producer of activated total carbon electrodes, working with partner companies to produce and market the key element that contains the technology which has been developed over many years. We have a unique technology that we believe is better suited to certain market opportunities than any competitive technology. Our job is to commercialize the product, and make sure we have the right resources to accomplish the goal.

    "We are focusing on PbC revenue and margins, customer engineering, strategic partnerships, and improving the execution of our business. We are very pleased to have been designated to provide energy storage and frequency regulation for the Coatesville Solar Initiative which, when completed, is projected to be a 9.1 megawatt solar farm, and the largest solar farm in Pennsylvania. We are also working with a commercial solar photovoltaic company in New Jersey, which is in the process of completing its first installation using PbC technology in a system for energy storage and frequency regulation. Because of the work that Axion has done for the last several years with the PJM grid, the Coatesville and other installations will be able to connect directly to the PJM grid, and potentially to provide high-value frequency regulation with a response time in nanoseconds, as we do on a daily basis in New Castle. We have also made a much smaller 12kw installation near our factory, a size that would be right for residential or small commercial applications, or possibly for island locations where electricity from the grid is very costly."
    Nov 14, 2014. 07:59 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment