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  • How To Play The Tesla Motors Earnings Announcement [View article]
    Terry, you raise some interesting and valid points, but to balance the story I would like to make some counter-arguments:

    1) Given the cost of a Model S/Roadster is $50,000-$100,000, the value to Tesla is much higher than the $4000-$8000 per car you mentioned when comparing F and GM. Why? No dealer network with whom to share profits. Also - no legacy UAW pension and healthcare costs. As has been noted elsewhere, TSLA is competing in the high-end space with BMW and Audi - not F and GM.
    In fact, the absence of a dealer network is further evidence of TSLA's disruptive business model. Auto dealers in Massachusetts were so threatened by this they recently filed a lawsuit to stop them, and lost.

    2) Whether TSLA sells 20,000 cars this year or next is irrelevant, frankly. The crucial question is whether they can ramp to a much higher number. Their Fremont, CA plant has the potential to be expanded to 400,000 cars a year in the mid-term. Not all of these cars may be branded as TSLA vehicles, due to recent deal with TM to produce electric Rav 4s. I expect further such deals in the future.
    A market share of 400,000 electric cars per year is not so much of a stretch - The US and Europe combined sell 25-30 million cars a year. So capturing just 2% of the overall market should be their goal.
    So using your math: 400,000 cars x $20,000 /car = $8 billion market cap, unrisked and undiscounted.

    TSLA may appear overvalued using the metrics you quote. However, TSLA is a growth stock with a disruptive business model. It is essentially a call option on the future of electric cars, electric cars that will be faster and more fun to drive than the Nissan Leaf.

    Feb 18, 2013. 11:52 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Roughly 70% of those surveyed by Institutional Investor expect higher stocks in the wake of a Romney victory, with half of those predicting a substantial rally. With an Obama victory, about three quarters expect anything from no move to a big sell-off. SPY +66% since 1/20/2009. [View news story]
    A contrarian indicator if ever I saw one
    Oct 31, 2012. 11:35 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron Enters 2015 On A More Assured Note [View article]

    The real reason insiders are NOT buying is that all of the relevant data is not publicly disclosed - yet. In particular the results from the MDS-RARS patients.

    I'm disappointed that they have not released this, still. Apparently they are waiting for Dr Tefferi to present it at a future conference... anyone hazard a guess as to when?

    If insiders were to buy stock before this data came out, they would leave themselves open to accusations of insider trading - acting on non-public information. An analyst asked about it at the Geron post-ASH Q&A in December. Only hint given was that it was significant.
    Jan 9, 2015. 11:57 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron's Risk/Reward Profile Improves As Near-Term Uncertainty Ends [View article]
    I'm shocked, shocked that the short interest is still so high. A 27 million share buyback happening in the future... With only minimal dilution as Geron's funding needs are largely taken care of. The best is yet to come - my seatbelt will remain buckled!
    Nov 25, 2014. 06:10 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At Current Levels, Geron Has A Very Favorable Risk/Reward Profile [View article]
    I'm planning to dress up as Confirmation Bias for Halloween. I'll ask folks what they think I'm dressed as, then agree with them.
    Oct 30, 2014. 04:56 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forbes Is Wrong About GM [View article]
    GM produces a range of vehicles, some better received than others.
    So does Toyota - for example, the FJ cruiser is one of the worst rated vehicles on Consumer Reports.

    I bought my first GM vehicle earlier this, it drives great and is far more reliable than the Japanese vehicle I used to drive.

    Need to separate the politics from the company and its products, which the Forbes article deliberately muddled.
    Aug 23, 2012. 12:20 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron's Risk/Reward Profile Improves As Near-Term Uncertainty Ends [View article]

    Speaking of new trials... does anyone else see the significance of a Phase 2 Multiple Myeloma (MM) appearing under the list of Geron clinical trials on their website?

    This is something of a surprise to me, since it wasn't mentioned in the July 2014 corporate presentation. I dredged up this old abstract from 2012:

    The 5 year survival rate for MM is only 45%, median survival only 3-4 years. Imetelstat appears effective per the abstract above (although subject to the dreaded "time lag" effect). If imetelstat is approved for this indication - then the market could be huge. MM is the second most common hematological cancer after NHL.

    With all of that excess JNJ cash, I'm thinking we could also see a Phase 3 for this indication in 2015. Phase 2 MM trial should finish in December.
    Nov 16, 2014. 06:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At Current Levels, Geron Has A Very Favorable Risk/Reward Profile [View article]
    Good news... looks like the Full FDA hold has been lifted and a multicenter Phase 2 trial will begin in the first half of 2015.

    Presentation at the Stifel healthcare conference on November 19th should contain more details of upcoming plans.
    Nov 3, 2014. 07:44 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is this as good as it gets? Two economists contend that because of U.S. demographics and the makeup of the workforce, growth was already slowing and on a weaker course before the 2007 credit event came along - and now the current recovery is already in full bloom. "In other words, the good times are over, and they are not coming back."  [View news story]
    Why do we even bother listening to economists anymore? Phrenology and astrology have a more successful predictive track record.
    Just a somewhat cynical thought.
    Mar 23, 2012. 09:49 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Energy Becomes the Latest 'Victim' of the Shale Gas Ponzi Scheme [View article]
    The reason the larger oil companies keep buying shale assets can be summed up in one word: reserves. On a boe (barrel of oil equivalent) basis they are cheap reserves. Profitability is a moot point, unfortunately. The accounting can be rejigged to make it look profitable (a necessary requirement to call a gas resource a "reserve").

    If the oil companies can demonstrate to the stock market that they are growing reserves faster than those reserves are being produced, then their stock prices won't be wiped out, i.e. they look like a growth stock. Where have we seen this before?

    Investors should be extremely careful and a "show me the money" attitude should prevail. However, having said that, I expect further M&A in the sector as big oil looks to grow reserves despite lack of exploration success.
    Aug 22, 2011. 08:59 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron wins deal to develop blood disorder drug, could get $935M [View news story]
    The MF news is not news. Forget MF! The real game changer is the AML & MDS indications.

    There are 3-4 times as many AML cases as MF, and survival prospects are grim. A combo with doxorubicin is new and revolutionary. Let's hope we can move from mice to human trials ASAP. With Janssen in the driver's seat, I can see a path forward.

    Folks who were expecting a short term pop will be deflated, sure. But take a look at the Pharmacyclics chart. Not many big jumps but a slow inexorable climb to a market cap of $11b.

    One more thing... When the MDS data finally comes out, I'm expecting to see some serious insider buying.
    Dec 9, 2014. 12:19 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron's Risk/Reward Profile Improves As Near-Term Uncertainty Ends [View article]


    I too thought the AML abstract was a pretty big deal, and a huge opportunity. As is MDS-RARS.

    AHS2014 Late breaking abstracts (only 6) are published on November 17th. Geron's presentation at Stifel will be on November 19th. Coincidence?

    Ostensibly, Tefferi didn't submit an abstract on AML/MDS-RARS because of the time constraints involved in responding to the FDA. Doesn't mean he wouldn't have time for the late breaking abstracts. After all, the above two indications are a big deal - if imetelstat shows efficacy in either - and he is a prolific publisher.
    Nov 9, 2014. 10:34 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron: The Best Buy In The Market [View article]
    I bought six months ago in the $2.30's, and it seemed cheap then too...

    Lets put aside the technical jargon and reflect on the fact that the stock price has gone nowhere in the last 6 months - despite several positive catalysts:
    1) FDA lifting the hold on the Mayo MF trial
    2) Transfer of the Mayo IND to Geron
    3) Abstracts pertaining to the effectiveness of Imetelstat in combination with other drugs (uncovered by the intrepid tazamatic)
    4) Anecdotal information of the drug's effectiveness (# of patients remaining in the trial, Yahoo! message board comments).

    Clearly, the big enchilada is the FDA hold - I can't see this stock moving until that is released. You can speculate on market gyrations, Tefferi abstracts, Seeking Alpha articles, et cetera, but until that happens you won't see a big - and I mean big - move.

    I appreciate the commentary and discussion on this board - you are all a lot smarter than me, and I confess to having skipped over many posts due to not having enough time - or gray matter - to fully digest.

    But back to the big enchilada... We know that the FDA has 30 days to respond to Geron's application to lift the hold. We don't know how long it will take to collect all the liver data, assuming that most do return to baseline. Scarlett hinted that this would happen in the 4th quarter. ASH abstracts should be out by early November. I can't imagine that Geron would wait until after early November to submit a response... if the Mayo data points are anything close to what we have speculated that they might be, the PR backlash would be uncomfortable for everyone.

    So my guess is that they submit a response to the FDA in October (after transfer of the Mayo IND) and the FDA responds withing 30 days, before the ASH abstracts are released in November.

    Big move in October/November?
    Sep 16, 2014. 03:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron Set To Explode As FDA Releases Partial Clinical Hold On Imetelstat Myelofibrosis Trial [View article]
    Ed, myself and I'm sure 99% of the longs who read this message board appreciate the effort you've put in to "keep in faith" in imetelstat/geron. Keep it up.
    Aug 1, 2014. 04:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: Building Assets For Tomorrow [View article]

    Thanks for the interesting article.

    With Gorgon & Wheatstone, I think too many investors and analysts are focusing on the Capex blowout associated with the high cost environment in Australia. There are several details to consider here - (i) The Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) in Australia is extremely progressive. This means the after tax impact of the higher capex is less severe than many investors assume. Without going into detail, capex is deducted against any PRRT revenue. The remainder is uplifted by 5-15% and carried forward for the following year(s). This is extremely beneficial for high cost projects. (ii) Also, while Capex is higher than predicted at sanction, so are LNG prices. (iii) The later trains of an LNG project are always more profitable, because the majority of the capex is spent on the first trains (building the dock and pipelines, et cetera). So given Chevron's strong track record of exploration success in the area, I would expect trains 3&4 for both Gorgon and Wheatstone to add tremendous value.
    Dec 29, 2013. 02:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment