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  • Geron Enters 2015 On A More Assured Note [View article]
    Gob,

    Only the top execs have to report insider trades - of course, they are the ones most likely to go to jail...

    Your point is well taken - this is a testable hypothesis, and as a scientist I love testable hypotheses!

    The poster child (in a favorable sense) for insider transactions is Pharmacyclics (PCYC). Check out the insider transactions from 2010 to 2012, and then superimpose a plot of the share price. Once the data on ibrutinib was out, they started buying with both hands.

    http://bit.ly/1DJBPZ6

    I'm hoping - not predicting - we see the same behavior with Geron. We had one big insider buy in May last year.
    Jan 10, 2015. 12:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron Enters 2015 On A More Assured Note [View article]
    ibmiked,

    The real reason insiders are NOT buying is that all of the relevant data is not publicly disclosed - yet. In particular the results from the MDS-RARS patients.

    I'm disappointed that they have not released this, still. Apparently they are waiting for Dr Tefferi to present it at a future conference... anyone hazard a guess as to when?

    If insiders were to buy stock before this data came out, they would leave themselves open to accusations of insider trading - acting on non-public information. An analyst asked about it at the Geron post-ASH Q&A in December. Only hint given was that it was significant.
    Jan 9, 2015. 11:57 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron wins deal to develop blood disorder drug, could get $935M [View news story]
    The MF news is not news. Forget MF! The real game changer is the AML & MDS indications.

    There are 3-4 times as many AML cases as MF, and survival prospects are grim. A combo with doxorubicin is new and revolutionary. Let's hope we can move from mice to human trials ASAP. With Janssen in the driver's seat, I can see a path forward.

    Folks who were expecting a short term pop will be deflated, sure. But take a look at the Pharmacyclics chart. Not many big jumps but a slow inexorable climb to a market cap of $11b.

    One more thing... When the MDS data finally comes out, I'm expecting to see some serious insider buying.
    Dec 9, 2014. 12:19 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron's Risk/Reward Profile Improves As Near-Term Uncertainty Ends [View article]
    I'm shocked, shocked that the short interest is still so high. A 27 million share buyback happening in the future... With only minimal dilution as Geron's funding needs are largely taken care of. The best is yet to come - my seatbelt will remain buckled!
    Nov 25, 2014. 06:10 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perceptron: Big Upside At An Extremely Undervalued Price Near $10 [View article]
    Did anyone see the results of the recent election results for the board of directors?

    Director/Percentage of votes cast/Percentage of eligible votes

    Jeffrey M. Armstrong / 52.6% / 38.3%
    Kenneth R. Dabrowski / 52.6% / 38.3%
    Philip J. DeCocco / 51.3% / 37.4%
    W. Richard Marz / 52.6% / 38.3%
    C. Richard Neely, Jr. / 88.9% / 64.8%
    Robert S. Oswald / 51.4% / 37.5%
    Terryll R. Smith / 51.5% / 37.6%

    The majority of directors (with the exception of Neely, who I believe is new) just scraped through. Hardly a vote of confidence. I usually never vote in these things but this time I made an effort and voted NO also.

    This stock desperately needs an activist investor to come in and shake things up. They have the laziest balance sheet I've ever seen. $35MM in cash and no debt, in a company with a backlog of $50MM plus and mkt cap of $90MM? I mean come on. They could easily do a special dividend, buyback or leveraged re-cap (or a combination of these things).

    Mr Icahn - are you listening?
    Nov 22, 2014. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron's Risk/Reward Profile Improves As Near-Term Uncertainty Ends [View article]
    I was wrong on that point - I was hoping to see an update on the MDS-RARS patients this year, at ASH or earlier. Ostensibly Geron cut some kind of deal with Mayo to not disclose this data until they had time to publish.

    On the one hand I don't like waiting for this information, on the other - the results will be very good and will likely garner a lot of attention. Why do I think this? Because they have already lined up an MDS-RARS trial in 2015.

    Also surprised to not hear more about the MM trial results and future plans. Hopefully something is in the works on that front.
    Nov 18, 2014. 10:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron's Risk/Reward Profile Improves As Near-Term Uncertainty Ends [View article]

    Speaking of new trials... does anyone else see the significance of a Phase 2 Multiple Myeloma (MM) appearing under the list of Geron clinical trials on their website?

    This is something of a surprise to me, since it wasn't mentioned in the July 2014 corporate presentation. I dredged up this old abstract from 2012:

    http://bit.ly/UxI2k9

    The 5 year survival rate for MM is only 45%, median survival only 3-4 years. Imetelstat appears effective per the abstract above (although subject to the dreaded "time lag" effect). If imetelstat is approved for this indication - then the market could be huge. MM is the second most common hematological cancer after NHL.

    With all of that excess JNJ cash, I'm thinking we could also see a Phase 3 for this indication in 2015. Phase 2 MM trial should finish in December.

    http://1.usa.gov/1y9tICe
    Nov 16, 2014. 06:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron's Risk/Reward Profile Improves As Near-Term Uncertainty Ends [View article]
    groygroy, resident

    Maybe I am giving Geron too much credit. Surely they must have learned something from the "shareholder" lawsuits that followed the FDA hold? Frivolous they may have been, but Geron mngt got an expensive reminder of their fiduciary responsibilities, which could be a silver lining.
    Nov 10, 2014. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron's Risk/Reward Profile Improves As Near-Term Uncertainty Ends [View article]
    The only reason for Geron NOT to mention the MDS-RARS/AML patients is a Tefferi late breaking abstract, or it will be covered in his presentation at ASH2014.

    If Tefferi does not intend to disclose the MDS-RARS/AML data at ASH2014, then there is NO embargo. As of September 30th, Geron now "owns" this data and they have a fiduciary duty to disclose.

    Geron will not sit on this data until such time as Tefferi gets an abstract accepted in another publication.
    Nov 10, 2014. 11:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron's Risk/Reward Profile Improves As Near-Term Uncertainty Ends [View article]
    Latest post from Irish on Yahoo:

    "rx - we opted out for longer intervals between infusions (AMA) until more known about path forward hoping to "stretch" to Phase II center closer to home with blood work monitored monthly in interim. Last infusion July 22. Last blood panel October 12. The results were remarkable in that all important blood counts stayed close to normal/baseline after almost 12 weeks without infusion (now 14 weeks). It was expected that after 6-8 weeks blood counts/condition would deteriorate (get seriously abnormal) and require another infusion quickly or lose gains quickly (like diabetic without insulin). However, while there was some indication that some counts are slightly worsening - worsening at very slow rate. Before/During Johns 15 months of initial Imetelstat treatment, his blood counts/condition would deteriorate rapidly/significantly at 3-6 weeks. So where there is now some small, slow deterioration in blood counts - it is now much slower than during treatment and much much slower than before treatment. That is not to say John will not need Imetelstat again at some point probably sooner rather than later. But now we know MF "under control" so to speak almost 17 weeks since 1st infusion and that John can go more than 3-6 weeks between maintenance infusions. Blood work does suggest at some point - 16, 20, 24 weeks? - he will need another infusion. We are a little nervous since we are in are unchartered waters thanks to endless phase I and FDA spurious hold. But so far so good. The ASH 14 abstract proves significant efficacy and durability in IST Cohort 1 well over a year. John and I now think dosing (time between infusions) and not just dosage (amount of medicine) is a variable. Next blood work 11/22"
    Nov 9, 2014. 10:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron's Risk/Reward Profile Improves As Near-Term Uncertainty Ends [View article]

    Hoosier_Investor,

    I too thought the AML abstract was a pretty big deal, and a huge opportunity. As is MDS-RARS.

    AHS2014 Late breaking abstracts (only 6) are published on November 17th. Geron's presentation at Stifel will be on November 19th. Coincidence?

    Ostensibly, Tefferi didn't submit an abstract on AML/MDS-RARS because of the time constraints involved in responding to the FDA. Doesn't mean he wouldn't have time for the late breaking abstracts. After all, the above two indications are a big deal - if imetelstat shows efficacy in either - and he is a prolific publisher.
    Nov 9, 2014. 10:34 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At Current Levels, Geron Has A Very Favorable Risk/Reward Profile [View article]
    Yes it is a little disappointing to see 10 people drop out of the study (for whatever reason)... but the main point to consider is how well does imetelstat perform relative to the existing drug(s) for MF.

    Would an oncologist recommend the drug that has a ~15-20% chance of CR/PR over the drug that has a 0% chance of CR/PR (i.e. Jakafi)?
    Nov 6, 2014. 08:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • At Current Levels, Geron Has A Very Favorable Risk/Reward Profile [View article]
    Good news... looks like the Full FDA hold has been lifted and a multicenter Phase 2 trial will begin in the first half of 2015.

    Presentation at the Stifel healthcare conference on November 19th should contain more details of upcoming plans.
    Nov 3, 2014. 07:44 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At Current Levels, Geron Has A Very Favorable Risk/Reward Profile [View article]
    groygroy, Jakafi is a drug that should never have been approved, IMHO... remember that on Jakafi 0% get a CR, 0% get a PR and just 18% get CI.

    However you are right, there is no alternative - at the moment.

    INCY up another 7% today, so obviously my opinion is in the minority!
    Oct 31, 2014. 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At Current Levels, Geron Has A Very Favorable Risk/Reward Profile [View article]
    Not sure how many have seen this Mayo brochure already... but scroll ahead to page 9. No new information - but a bullish spin on imetelstat.

    http://mayocl.in/1jfR5So
    Oct 31, 2014. 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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