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Street_fighter

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  • How To Play The Tesla Motors Earnings Announcement [View article]
    Terry, you raise some interesting and valid points, but to balance the story I would like to make some counter-arguments:

    1) Given the cost of a Model S/Roadster is $50,000-$100,000, the value to Tesla is much higher than the $4000-$8000 per car you mentioned when comparing F and GM. Why? No dealer network with whom to share profits. Also - no legacy UAW pension and healthcare costs. As has been noted elsewhere, TSLA is competing in the high-end space with BMW and Audi - not F and GM.
    In fact, the absence of a dealer network is further evidence of TSLA's disruptive business model. Auto dealers in Massachusetts were so threatened by this they recently filed a lawsuit to stop them, and lost.

    2) Whether TSLA sells 20,000 cars this year or next is irrelevant, frankly. The crucial question is whether they can ramp to a much higher number. Their Fremont, CA plant has the potential to be expanded to 400,000 cars a year in the mid-term. Not all of these cars may be branded as TSLA vehicles, due to recent deal with TM to produce electric Rav 4s. I expect further such deals in the future.
    A market share of 400,000 electric cars per year is not so much of a stretch - The US and Europe combined sell 25-30 million cars a year. So capturing just 2% of the overall market should be their goal.
    So using your math: 400,000 cars x $20,000 /car = $8 billion market cap, unrisked and undiscounted.

    TSLA may appear overvalued using the metrics you quote. However, TSLA is a growth stock with a disruptive business model. It is essentially a call option on the future of electric cars, electric cars that will be faster and more fun to drive than the Nissan Leaf.

    Feb 18 11:52 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Roughly 70% of those surveyed by Institutional Investor expect higher stocks in the wake of a Romney victory, with half of those predicting a substantial rally. With an Obama victory, about three quarters expect anything from no move to a big sell-off. SPY +66% since 1/20/2009. [View news story]
    A contrarian indicator if ever I saw one
    Oct 31 11:35 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forbes Is Wrong About GM [View article]
    GM produces a range of vehicles, some better received than others.
    So does Toyota - for example, the FJ cruiser is one of the worst rated vehicles on Consumer Reports.

    I bought my first GM vehicle earlier this, it drives great and is far more reliable than the Japanese vehicle I used to drive.

    Need to separate the politics from the company and its products, which the Forbes article deliberately muddled.
    Aug 23 12:20 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is this as good as it gets? Two economists contend that because of U.S. demographics and the makeup of the workforce, growth was already slowing and on a weaker course before the 2007 credit event came along - and now the current recovery is already in full bloom. "In other words, the good times are over, and they are not coming back."  [View news story]
    Why do we even bother listening to economists anymore? Phrenology and astrology have a more successful predictive track record.
    Just a somewhat cynical thought.
    Mar 23 09:49 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Energy Becomes the Latest 'Victim' of the Shale Gas Ponzi Scheme [View article]
    The reason the larger oil companies keep buying shale assets can be summed up in one word: reserves. On a boe (barrel of oil equivalent) basis they are cheap reserves. Profitability is a moot point, unfortunately. The accounting can be rejigged to make it look profitable (a necessary requirement to call a gas resource a "reserve").

    If the oil companies can demonstrate to the stock market that they are growing reserves faster than those reserves are being produced, then their stock prices won't be wiped out, i.e. they look like a growth stock. Where have we seen this before?

    Investors should be extremely careful and a "show me the money" attitude should prevail. However, having said that, I expect further M&A in the sector as big oil looks to grow reserves despite lack of exploration success.
    Aug 22 08:59 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron: Best Buy In The Market [View article]
    I bought six months ago in the $2.30's, and it seemed cheap then too...

    Lets put aside the technical jargon and reflect on the fact that the stock price has gone nowhere in the last 6 months - despite several positive catalysts:
    1) FDA lifting the hold on the Mayo MF trial
    2) Transfer of the Mayo IND to Geron
    3) Abstracts pertaining to the effectiveness of Imetelstat in combination with other drugs (uncovered by the intrepid tazamatic)
    4) Anecdotal information of the drug's effectiveness (# of patients remaining in the trial, Yahoo! message board comments).

    Clearly, the big enchilada is the FDA hold - I can't see this stock moving until that is released. You can speculate on market gyrations, Tefferi abstracts, Seeking Alpha articles, et cetera, but until that happens you won't see a big - and I mean big - move.

    I appreciate the commentary and discussion on this board - you are all a lot smarter than me, and I confess to having skipped over many posts due to not having enough time - or gray matter - to fully digest.

    But back to the big enchilada... We know that the FDA has 30 days to respond to Geron's application to lift the hold. We don't know how long it will take to collect all the liver data, assuming that most do return to baseline. Scarlett hinted that this would happen in the 4th quarter. ASH abstracts should be out by early November. I can't imagine that Geron would wait until after early November to submit a response... if the Mayo data points are anything close to what we have speculated that they might be, the PR backlash would be uncomfortable for everyone.

    So my guess is that they submit a response to the FDA in October (after transfer of the Mayo IND) and the FDA responds withing 30 days, before the ASH abstracts are released in November.

    Big move in October/November?
    Sep 16 03:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron Set To Explode As FDA Releases Partial Clinical Hold On Imetelstat Myelofibrosis Trial [View article]
    Ed, myself and I'm sure 99% of the longs who read this message board appreciate the effort you've put in to "keep in faith" in imetelstat/geron. Keep it up.
    Aug 1 04:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: Building Assets For Tomorrow [View article]
    Marsha,

    Thanks for the interesting article.

    With Gorgon & Wheatstone, I think too many investors and analysts are focusing on the Capex blowout associated with the high cost environment in Australia. There are several details to consider here - (i) The Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) in Australia is extremely progressive. This means the after tax impact of the higher capex is less severe than many investors assume. Without going into detail, capex is deducted against any PRRT revenue. The remainder is uplifted by 5-15% and carried forward for the following year(s). This is extremely beneficial for high cost projects. (ii) Also, while Capex is higher than predicted at sanction, so are LNG prices. (iii) The later trains of an LNG project are always more profitable, because the majority of the capex is spent on the first trains (building the dock and pipelines, et cetera). So given Chevron's strong track record of exploration success in the area, I would expect trains 3&4 for both Gorgon and Wheatstone to add tremendous value.
    Dec 29 02:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forbes Is Wrong About GM [View article]
    I don't like government intervention (i.e. bailouts) any more than the next guy. But lets remember a few points here:
    1) The bailouts happened... TARP happened - and on whose watch did that $750 billion check get written? (Hint: it wasn't Obama).
    2) If you think the Japanese and German auto makers don't receive help from their own governments, then you are deluded.
    Aug 23 03:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron: Best Buy In The Market [View article]
    Gents, lets not get distracted from the science - and the investment opportunity - here. I know we have a lot of time to kill before ASH, but seriously...

    @tazamatic: Thanks for your note on the abstracts being released online on November 8th. Will these be accessible to everyone, or only conference attendees? It beggars belief that the press will be embargoed from reporting on the abstracts... makes no sense at all.
    Sep 23 12:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Developer Of Candy Crush Seeking To Expand Despite Recent Setbacks [View article]
    Farm Heroes is super addictive, more so than Candy Crush. I think it will eventually shape up to be a bigger hit than CC. I wish they'd break out revenue per user by game... you'd see they have improved their revenue generating model.
    Jun 24 05:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Are Luxury Car Makers Looking The Other Way While Tesla Eats Their Lunch? [View article]
    Johnc77
    You should go to the Consumer Reports website and read the unbiased assessment of real experts who have actually tested - and driven - the car... not the folks on this site.

    Not a believer in the stock as an investment, but plan to buy the car once the warranty expires on my current ICE car.

    FYI - the maintenance is actually minimal. No oil changes, et cetera. Less moving parts than an ICE car. The weight is due in large part to the battery pack.
    May 9 05:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will SSDs Finish Off Spinning Rust? [View article]
    Phred - thanks for an interesting article.

    Where do you see existing players like $STX, $WDC and $FIO fitting in? $WDC has made some moves with the Virident acquisition, among others.
    Dec 8 10:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Italy and Greece rank 69th and 80th on a Corruption Perception Index - not a total surprise since tax evasion and fraud have helped drive the debt crisis. New Zealand is seen as the cleanest, while the U.S. is 24th, behind Qatar. Given the latter's shenanigans in the world of soccer, what does that say about the index?  [View news story]
    Rather... what does that say about the US?
    Dec 1 12:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At Current Levels, Geron Has A Very Favorable Risk/Reward Profile [View article]
    Phil,

    The DLT (dose limiting toxicity) is myelosuppression, not LFT. I believe this is the main reason the other imetelstat trials (NSCLC, breast cancer) didn't meet their endpoints. Even though there was evidence of efficacy, they were not able to increase the dosage to make the efficacy statistically significant.

    This is the main reason I don't believe imetelstat will be ever be the "aspirin" of cancer - on its own. In combination with other drugs, and in smaller doses, maybe.

    For that reason, I think Geron did the right thing in focusing on MPN diseases.

    Disclosure: I am not a biomedical expert. I am long common shares of Geron. Above observations were made on the basis of my own layman's research into publicly available data. I welcome any rebuttal/criticism from actual experts in the fields of oncology/hematology.
    Oct 11 02:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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