skitahoe

GenVec, Inc.: The Biggest Little Biotech

A week from now GNVC will have disclosed the full results of it's peek at the TNFerade Phase III data on 92 events at ASCO. I believe at least two facts that haven't previously been disclosed will be, and it will excite much greater interest in GNVC.

The first fact is that far more then 1/3rd the deaths in the 92 events occurred in the group receiving the SOC alone, which is 1/3rd of the patient population. The second fact is that far more than twice as many resections occurred for the 2/3rd of the patients on TNFerade.

We'll also see the actual K-M Curves for the first time, but I believe discussion already released gave people a reasonable idea of what they should look like.

There is no doubt, the company is cash starved and it's holding down the price. I believe on seeing the full results investors will arrive at the conclusion that the drugs performance leaves no doubt it will be approved, and it will confirm in many peoples mind that a partnership will occur when the company's satisfied with what's offered.

No one likes seeing a company with inadequate funding, but the question is, do you invest now, while the stock's 70 cents, after ASCO when the data moves it into the $1 to $5 range, after a partnership when the range moves from $4 to $10 or more, or after approval when $15 to $30 could easily be justified.

If you look at the mechanism by which TNFerade works, you'll find that pancreatic cancer's just the tip of the iceberg. Benefits are already significant in trials on Head and Neck and Esophageal Cancers, but there's little doubt it can be applied to many others, perhaps most cancers. Unlike other drugs, it will compliment most other drugs rather than competing with them.

If you look even deeper into the company, you'll find that in addition to TNFerade, GNVC has Foot and Mouth Vaccines that Homeland Security has developed with them and H.S. is committed to a large buy of one or more of the vaccines late this year. This can be found in H.S. documents, not GNVC claims. GNVC has not yet even claimed a soul source contract with H.S. that's been announced, but apparently not yet awarded. I mention this because FMD Vaccines may very well answer the immediate cash problems faced by the company.

Gary