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  • AAII Sentiment Survey: Individual Investor Optimism Reaches An 8-Month High [View article]
    In the June, 2014 edition of the AAII Journal, an article written by Charles Rotblut, CFA which was titled: Analyzing the AAII Sentiment Survey Without Hindsight, stated the following:

    "Can You Use Sentiment as a Market Timing Tool?

    At first glance, the numbers suggest the AAII Sentiment Survey can be used to determine buying opportunities or times to increase your allocations to stocks. The danger in thinking that is that the link is correlated, not causal. High levels of pessimism or low levels of optimism do not cause stocks prices to rebound. Rather, they are associated with periods of market turbulence. Such periods are often characterized by reduced valuations. Therefore, the AAII Sentiment Survey may work better as a prompt to determine whether a buying, selling or rebalancing opportunity exists than as an actual market timing indicator."

    It is interesting that, although Mr. Rotblut admits that the AAII Sentiment Survey should not be used as a market timing indicator, that AAII continues to conduct this survey, and report the results to both it's members and the public on a regular basis.
    Aug 22, 2014. 06:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarian And Momentum Investing - Part 2 [View article]

    Sadly, Ploutos has not responded in any comment area or authored any new articles since December of 2013. It appears that he has fallen off the face of the earth, and maybe that is exactly what has happened to him. I followed him from the very beginning and felt his ideas and strategies were second to none. He was always on top of responding to criticism or questions about the subjects he wrote, right up until the day he disappeared. His wisdom, so valued by many on SA, left a void in many close followers who treasured his posts. RIP Ploutos.
    Aug 22, 2014. 12:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Fund Managers Who Invest Elsewhere Exploit Their Clients [View article]
    I believe you may want to consider the regulatory reasons that so many managers do not want to personally invest in the funds they manage.
    Jul 22, 2014. 10:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simply Buy The Dividend Aristocrats And Perhaps Beat The Market [View article]
    galicianova: The expense ratios are currently the same at 0.35%. However, NOBL is currently waiving a portion of their fees (0.43%) until 9/30/2015. Once the fee waiver ends, the anticipated expense ratio is 0.78% (0.35+0.43=0.78). If this ProShares ETF gathers sufficient assets by that time, and succumbs to the downward pressure being exerted on the industry for lower expenses, it is possible that the current expense ratio could remain competitive with SDY, by remaining at 0.35, or at least matching any changes for SDY.
    Jun 29, 2014. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simply Buy The Dividend Aristocrats And Perhaps Beat The Market [View article]
    galicianova: One reason is that NOBL is equal-weighted. Another reason is that NOBL is more concentrated, holding roughly half the issues that SDY holds. Another reason is that NOBL has slightly outperformed SDY during periods of rising markets, while as expected, only slightly underperformed during a mild correction in January.
    Jun 29, 2014. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The DIA-IEF Double Switch: One Of The Safest And Laziest Strategies [View article]
    I also miss the knowledge and experience in articles by Ploutos. His postings simply vanished from SA in December. Does anyone know if he met his demise, had health issues or stopped publishing due to regulatory concerns? Thanks.
    May 28, 2014. 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Myths About Momentum: Part I [View article]
    Larry: Good article. Question: While academics define the momentum time frame as months 2-12, I have read other papers suggesting 5 months to be the optimal time period. Yet other momentum systems often utilize 6 months. Personally, what time frame do you use or believe is the most optimal?

    Thank you for the time and expertise you provide in publishing interesting articles on Seeking Alpha.
    May 20, 2014. 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Myths About Momentum: Part I [View article]
    Larry: Good article. Question - while the academic's time frame is months 2-12, I have also read papers that state 5 months is the optimum time frame and quite frequently read articles about momentum systems tied to 6 month time frames. Personally, what do you use or believe is the most optimal time frame? Thank you for the work you provide through Seeking Alpha articles.
    May 20, 2014. 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Yield/Treasury Momentum - December 2013 [View article]

    No posts in 5 months! Will you at least let us know you are alive and well???
    May 5, 2014. 01:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simply Buy The Dividend Aristocrats And Perhaps Beat The Market [View article]
    To: jolcath2001

    You are correct that the PERFORMANCE of RSP (Guggenheim's S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF - a LargeCap Blend ETF according to Morningstar) is almost identical to the iShares Core S&P 400 MidCap Index ETF returns. But that is where the similarity ends. Each of RSP's 500 constituents are the same LargeCap stocks as found in the large company S&P 500 index. It remains a LARGE company index fund, but derives its S&P 500 beating performance solely from its equal weighting. Because the bottom 100 companies in the S&P 500 index receive the same weighting as the top 100 companies, it has been able to outperform the capitalization-weighted S&P 500 index, yet still maintain all Large company constituents. From a risk perspective, as measured by standard deviation, RSP is measured at 14.30 vs. 12.47 for IVV, while IJH, the iShares Core S&P 400 MidCap Index ETF is measured at 15.35.

    It is because of this outperformance by equal-weighted RSP (Expense Ratio 0.40%) over capitalization-weighted IVV (Expense Ratio 0.15%) that I am hoping to see that equal-weighted NOBL may be able to similarly outperform its capitalization-weighted competition (i.e. SDY, VIG, DVY etc.), even if its current expense ratio of 0.35% rises to 0.78%. For that we'll need 3-5 years of performance data of the actual ETFs (not the indices as trumpeted by the issuer) to find out.
    Mar 27, 2014. 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simply Buy The Dividend Aristocrats And Perhaps Beat The Market [View article]

    Good article. I also began following NOBL as soon as it started trading. I was initially surprised that ProShares, of all firms, would bring such an ETF to market. After using RSP successfully for many years, I became a fan of equally-weighted index funds, which was initially why NOBL appeared so attractive to me.

    While ProShares had a glowing report of the S&P Dividend Aristocrat's index return vs. the S&P 500 index return since inception on May 3, 2005, you really should compare the actual ETF (NOBL) return to the returns of an ETF tracking the S&P 500 index (IVV) and potentially more appropriate, the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (RSP) since NOBL is also equally-weighted.

    Since NOBL has only traded for 113 days, the longest look-back period offered by Morningstar for a comparison, is an extremely short 3-month time frame. During that period the returns were: NOBL 0.09%, IVV 1.78% and RSP 2.72%. Since the 10/9/2013 inception date for NOBL, looking at a comparison on, broadly speaking it appears NOBL has returned roughly 8%, IVV 10.75% and RSP 11%.

    I mention those returns only as a caveat that NOBL may not necessarily "beat the market" over various short and intermediate-term time frames going forward. However, NOBL is certainly my choice in the dividend growth stock space among competitors such as SDY, VIG, VYM, DVY, SPHD, SCHD and others. If your goal is to "beat the market" then maybe RSP would be the better choice. But NOBL offers well recognized companies that have continuously increased their dividends over time, a very compelling long-term investment strategy. Why not combine the two in your LargeCap Blend stock space, especially in more tax-efficient IRA accounts.
    Mar 25, 2014. 11:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Destroying Alpha: Implications From The New Regulatory Environment [View article]
    Mar 19, 2014. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Yield/Treasury Momentum - December 2013 [View article]

    You have been uncharacteristically MIA since the beginning of December. Everything ok my friend?
    Feb 7, 2014. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Now And Continuing Future Star-Performing ETF [View article]
    This is an exceptional article Peter. While I also read your article - "What Market Pros Know That You Don't" - with great interest, I also look forward to reading your earlier posts which I may have missed. I appreciate your efforts to present ideas that make me think. Thank you..
    Dec 28, 2013. 10:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Simple And Timeless Model Fails To Impress [View article]
    Somehow I just knew by the end of this article we were going to get teased with a...but my model works better than yours.
    Nov 13, 2013. 12:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment