bd1990

Tom Akin: Don't Sell a Bullish Trend Until It Is Proven Otherwise

"while fundamental analysts try to predict the direction of the market"?

I think the opposite is true. Fundamentalists believe the market is unpredictable, so they strive to buy at bargain price range only and sell when price skyrockets to scary levels.

Two More Myths About Business in China

I can't agree more with your analysis. However, I am not sure how correct those data on credit card are. As I know, many so-called "credit cards" in China are actually debit card, there is zero credit in them.


"The number of credit cards in use in China rose from 13 million in 2005 to 180 million by the end of 2009, and that growth was fueled largely by younger consumers. Despite the financial crisis, we expect the number of cards to grow 25% a year for the next three years, as consumers demand them and the financial system becomes more consumer-oriented and less reliant on servicing state-run enterprises."

Is Lihua International Cooking Its Books? Part II

The author raised a few questions based on his own analysis. Whether you agree or not will depend on your own DD. The analysis per se is well thought and the potential problems are very concerning. For any prudent investor, researching and following a company for a few quarters before buying is always advisable, especially in this case of IPO.

Thanks for sharing your opinion.Disclosure: long FSIN

Bullish on China After My Recent Visit

I grew up in China and move to US at age 27. When I visited my hometown 14 years after leaving it, I could barely recognise 10% of the town. My folks kindly kept asking me why you don't come back. Most of my college classmates were owners of apartment(s), car(s) and they do appear genuinely happy with everyday life. I resent what the communist government did to students in 1989, but I have to admit, China is way more capitalist now than communist then. Some fundamental problems remain the same, no free press, no freedom of religion, etc. far less freedom by US standards. But US did not become the way it is in 20 years, so it is not fair to compare it that way. In priciple, I agree almost entirely on your sharp observation over a short period of time. Jim Rogers spend much longer time in China, hope your girlfriend will not complain if you move all you asset/investment to China as Rogers did. If you believe china is sort of like US 100 years ago, the stock market has another 29 years to grow. Good luck.

Hot China Stocks: A Bubble to Avoid

The similar behavior of these few stocks you mentioned has quite different stories behind the rally. A look into SDTH's P/E of teens and JRJC's P/E of over 100 tells a lot. We should also avoid avoiding the Chinese ADR categorically.